Thursday, April 05, 2018

Malay tsunami is die-hard's handjob imagination


The above crowd at a PPBM ceramah in Jerai was bandied around by supporters and Tun Dr Mahathir's fanatic die-hards as 30,000.

Sure ... but why the low and close-up shot. Our credible and reliable source there at Jerai estimated it at just 3,000. It really is ... Read our 2012 posting on estimating crowd numbers here.

Having done work in Jerai before, we know the local could not be that much. The popular Azhar Idrus (refuse to call him Ustaz) could only attract 1,000 during the Sg Limau by-election. It has to be  outsiders brought in from all over Kedah and Penang.

Our source spotted supporters from as far as Taiping. A matter of observing the vehicle license plates.

So our friend, Akramsyah Sanusi should not be too hopeful his Aceh folks in Jerai will come through for him. His relative and UMNO Permanent Chairman, Tan Sri Badruddin is with UMNO. Even a DAP wakil rakyat disgusted with Lim Guan Eng has openly express high regards for Dato Seri Jamil Khir.

These die-hards think Mahathir is a big deal in Kedah. They have no idea what the Kedah Civil Service think of him and his former MB son.

The pentaksub suffers from too much syok sendiri. They refuse to look at both sides of the coin in any issues regarding Mahathir and is in a perpetual state of psychological self-denial. They are lost in their own handjob imagination.

At one time, PPBM propagated that they have 30,000 members in Kedah. Our source deep inside PPBM claimed it was only 15,000. Well now .. it turned out to about 8,500. PPBM has hardly any machinery to be as strong as they have been propagating themselves.

Initially, Mahathir's was hoping that he could psyche UMNO members to jump over to PPBM. He got some members but as time goes by, Tan Sri Muhyiddin and Dato Mukhriz could just not put the party together.

Thousands have left. Many still inside are disgruntled with the party leadership and increasingly towards Mahathir. Certain divisions in UMNO may have disagreement to suggested candidates but PPBM's case is volcano waiting to erupt.

More so, the arrogant and proud pentaksub could not accept running under PKR logo.

Mahathir hoped to swing some popular votes and that should dislodged UMNO. While he was making waves in the media, UMNO was doing work quietly and pretending to potray themselves as weak and not motivated.

At the same time, PPBM propagandist were claiming the public were unhappy and psyching as though voters is waiting for the time to cast out UMNO. Invoke and DAP's Dr Ong Kian Meng predicted a Malay tsunami similar to the Chinese tsunami in 2008.

The idea was to create perception among voters and create waves.

Mahathir was propagated by DAP to be the swing factor to secure Malay votes for DAP-dominant Pakatan Harapan. That was the mistake ....

No tsunami

Well ... here's reality from The Star here they need to learn to accept.


Malay tsunami at GE14 unlikely, says Najib

PUTRAJAYA: It is unlikely that there will be a Malay tsunami in the 14th general election, according to Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak.

“I don’t detect a Malay tsunami. Malay tsunami would mean a rejection of Umno. I don’t see that (happening).

“We had taken part in by-elections (before that served) as a test as well as an assessment of the (Malay) feelings on the ground. I don’t see a Malay tsunami,” he told senior editors at his office in Putrajaya yesterday.

The Barisan Nasional chairman, who has been visiting various states in the run-up to GE14, said the mood and sentiment among the people were good and it was better than the last election.

As for Chinese voters’ mood ahead of the election, Najib said it was hard to say.

“MCA says the Chinese will come back (to BN).

“For the Chinese voters, you will only detect (the voting patterns at the) last minute because they are strategic voters.

“They will vote based on certain considerations. So, we don’t know yet for sure. Nobody knows for sure.” he said.

However, Najib emphasised that the Chinese would get a better deal with Barisan, particularly in terms of having a stronger representation in the Government.

“I can’t keep on giving four or five ministerial (posts) if they don’t support BN. So, they (Chinese voters) have to make a choice.

“If the country prospers, so will the Chinese. If we move strongly economically, the Chinese community in the country will benefit,” he said.

On the Parti Warisan Sabah led by Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal, Najib said it was not strong enough to create a political tsunami in Sabah.

Earlier, in what was seen as his last session with civil servants before the general election, the Prime Minister assured them that the Government is committed to advancing the public sector and looking after the welfare of the 1.6 million staff serving the people and the nation.

Najib said this commitment by the Government of the day under Barisan Nasional is in contrast with the Opposition, which continues to criticise and run down public officers.

Saying that he values their services and contributions, Najib said that in his 40 years in politics, civil servants had played an important role in helping him serve the nation.

“There is a proposal by the Penang Institute to reduce the number of civil servants to 430,000.

“This means the services of 1.2 million staff will be terminated, rendering them unemployed.

“As if this is not enough, a leader from ‘Parti Bunga Raya’ made a statement about sacking all senior civil servants if the party governs after the general election,” he said in reference to Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia.

Talk is rife that the Prime Minister will announce the dissolution of Parliament tomorrow.

Addressing some 10,000 civil servants from both federal and state offices at the annual civil service assembly yesterday, the Prime Minister was saddened by derogatory statements made by the Opposition, with some labelling public officers as kucing kurap (people of no significance).

“Let them have that attitude. What is for sure is that civil servants can always depend on the Barisan-led government to look after and defend them,” he told the crowd.

Recapping some of Malaysia’s recent successes, the Prime Minister said the Government owed its achievements to civil servants who helped roll out its transformation plans, policies and initiatives.

These had, among other things, resulted in a 5.9% growth in gross domestic product last year – among the highest growth rates in the world.

Malaysia also received positive credit ratings from international agencies Moody’s, Standard & Poor and Fitch Ratings, and was listed as the 23rd most competitive nation among 137 countries by the Global Competitiveness Index.

The latest feather in the cap for Malaysia came on March 28 when the Saudi Arabia government’s company Aramco injected US$7bil (RM27.45bil) of funds, which are expected to spur economic growth and create job opportunities, the Prime Minister noted.

Pointing out that the civil service had come a long way since it was set up in 1934 with only 31 Malay officers out of 129, Najib said it underwent changes from a conventional government to e-government and now towards digital government to further boost competency, efficiency and transparency.
Maybe it is Najib and it is all attempts to put psyche opposition. The person who initially promoted Malay tsunami in their finding was reported in FMT below:

Rafizi: Mahathir unlikely to cause Malay tsunami

Michael Murty | April 5, 2018

The Pandan MP says research data by Invoke backs this observation which has also been accepted by PH's top leadership.


KUALA LUMPUR: Pandan MP Rafizi Ramli has poured cold water on speculation that Pakatan Harapan (PH) chairman Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his party, PPBM, will cause a Malay tsunami that will favour the opposition in the 14th general election (GE14).

The Invoke founder said data gathered by the policy research outfit did not support the speculation, and that he had relayed the findings to opposition leaders including those from PPBM.

“If you ask me if there is going to be a game-changing tsunami because of PPBM and Mahathir, I say no, that is not going to happen.

“I have told this every day to Mahathir, Muhyiddin Yassin and their party leaders and they accept it.

“You can ask them both if this is what I presented in our meetings. There are no PPBM members that are hurt by what I said because they know that this data helps us deploy the best tactic and strategy at the best seats.

“In order to win, we have to play our own roles and we have to remain extremely objective,” he said at an Invoke event.

Rafizi added that his views were based solely on the numbers crunched out by Invoke.

“I based my predictions on the numbers we gather. The numbers are clear and they indicate that it will not happen.”

Adding that there were still non-Malay voters who were not comfortable with supporting Mahathir, he said nonetheless, the data did not belittle the PPBM chairman.

“Instead, it accepts the role played by PPBM to win Malay votes. We have to base this on accurate data.

“The numbers are such and this is important for us to accept in order for us to know where our strengths lie. Remember, we (PKR) became an opposition party with just 30,000 members at one point in 1999.

“At that point, when Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail and Nurul Izzah Anwar gave speeches, there was almost no one who would stop and listen but they still entered the (political) arena.

“This is because elections have never been won by party supporters but by support from the people.”

The likelihood of a Malay tsunami, like the 2008 Indian tsunami fuelled by the uprising of Hindraf the year before, has been intensely debated by leaders from both sides of the political divide.

Many opposition leaders, and even former MIC and MCA leaders, believe that Mahathir is capable of causing a Malay tsunami that will swing a large chunk of Malay votes towards the opposition.

Many have said that if this happens, it will likely deliver Putrajaya to PH.

However, Tourism and Culture Minister Nazri Aziz, who is also an Umno Supreme Council member, refuted the possibility of a Malay tsunami as “Malay votes are now divided and no one can obtain a two-thirds majority”.

Johor menteri besar and Umno liaison committee chairman Mohamed Khaled Nordin meanwhile claimed the issue had been sensationalised and that Umno had its own strengths to face the challenge from Malay-based opposition parties such as PPBM and PAS.

PPBM’s new recruit Maszlee Malik believes PPBM has what it takes to trigger a Malay tsunami after the events that unfolded following the 1MDB exposes by international publications.

However, he said the most significant issues were the sacking of Prime Minister Najib Razak’s former deputy, Muhyiddin Yassin, and Mahathir quitting Umno.

There are also some who believe that PAS, which aims to be the third force besides PH and BN, will whip up enough Malay support for a tsunami of its own.
Frankly, the words of Rafizi cannot be trusted absolutely. It does come out as a surprise to hear him admit he is wrong. It is too close for him to try funny stuff like trying to put UMNO in a state of lull.

UMNO is aware of PPBM's strength. They know who within their midst jumped over or playing two ponds.

Is it a case of PH planning to dump Mahathir?

According to Raja Petra, Mahathir is having memory loss. Read Mahathir's memory loss is stress-related. It is most glaring in this video of a PC below:


In a speech, he accused Menteri Besar Kedah, Dato Md Bashah of selling 3 islands to Chinese. He mentioned Pulau Telor and forgotten the rest. However Pulau Telor is hardly near Langkawi:


He had announced Pakatan Harapan manifesto and hardly within days he turned on few already:



He called Najib as "bertuhankan duit" but all his political life, any issues against his UMNO opponents had always been about money and there will always be his personal interest. And he is a classic ...



He said PPBM has no cawangan ...


... but is this not in their constitution?


They sent documents to ROS ...


but the inevitable is PPBM will be suspended registration or de-registered. Likelihood is PPBM will run under PKR logo.


It will be payback time.

In the meanwhile, Mahathir is turning senile or pretending to be senile so that he does not need to make the difficult decision to run as all his three options of Langkawi, Kubang Pasu and Putrjaya is negative.

There is less that 300 members in PPBM Putrjaya.

The senario we held on to is Azmin will be the one proposed to be PM. [Read June 2017 posting here.]

Howeer, to so so, he has to get out of the Ijok land issue. It was the issue believed reported by Chegu Bard and his own brother, Azwan Ali. Even so, Azmin may not be able to get out of UNISEL issue even though the Professors tried hard to cover him up.

We are living on interesting times.

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