Is this Anwar's face saving or final assault?

Since my last posting on the sodomy police report against report, Wan Azizah demanded assurance for Anwar's safety.

Anwar is temporarily holed up at the Turkish Ambassador's home and has filed a civil suit for defamation against Saiful at the High Court.

Najib has denied his involvement and clarified that Saiful came early in the year seeking help for scholarship through Khairil Anas.

And, the police has yet to investigate Anwar Ibrahim.

When Rocky posted the news of the sodomy police report on Sunday afternoon, an anonymous comentator by the name of Kamal had a view this is Anwar's desperate face saving move.

Another comentator, Imran posted in Kick De Fella blog a theory that Saiful Bukhary could be a plant in Najib's camp and this is the final assault before Anwar takeover Government. The basis of the argument lies in who gains the most from this episode.

Interesting.

Nothing like a good political thriller to keep us glued to the Internet. Wouldn't blame Zainal Kassim for being infuriated?

Face Saving Theory

Kamal on Rocky Bru's said...

This could also be anwar's strategy to create a sense of deep and terrible crisis in the country. Yes, he is not a sodomite and I don't believe he is either and he knew that people do not believe it either. So create one so he could play victim.

He is caught in the middle. he does not actually have the 'numbers' to form the government and no way he could face the public and have an honest and serious debate with Shabery Cheek on the fuel price.

So rather than having to face questions from the public when the time comes to deliver on his promise which would surely undermine his credibility, create a crisis now and make himself the victim: that he has doubt of his safety and he needs the safe sanctuary of a foreign embassy.

Give me a break! Badawi, despite his weakness, is not Mugabe. In fact, we are witnessing unprecedented level of freedom and openness in the country. This is just Anwar's way to maintain public distrust towards the government.

I believe no member of the government would want to repeat 1998. In fact, i don't think anybody in the current government believe that he was a sodomite when he had to face the allegation in 1998. 1998 was Mahathir's people's doing.

Today's government knows that this kind of allegation will not stand in the court of public opinion. They know that the public will hate them more if they do this. Yes, Anwar is a political threat to them, but not threatening enough for them to lose power on 16 September.

Anwar has endured worse treatment in 1998 and he can afford to create such sense of treatment today. It is the sense of bad treatment that earns him public admiration and pity.

Come on. Anwar is a master politician who knows where his trump card is!

Kamal

Final Assault Theory

Comentator Imran on KickdeFella said

I don’t believe the allegation against anwar, and other allegations and slanders that have been running wild from both sides.

Prior to this, we saw the very systematic and professional strategy used to slander Najib and his wife. I guess Najib’s long experience in politics has prevented him from making serious mistake such as using his position to shut the witnesses’ mouth. The C4 is a strategy to insinuate him with murder.

I don’t believe this episode is BN’s engineering for the reason that the BN are very well aware of how damaging the 1998-1999 experience had been and to be using the same trick is plainly committing harakiri.

The accusation against Anwar is probably meant to slander the BN more than Anwar. The main target is likely to be Najib. We could already see that many Malaysians are pointing fingers at them.

I believe Saiful is part of the conspirator to damage BN. It is a plain wonder that pictures of him with Najib’s assistant, Azlina, Dato’ Mustapha could be produced in lightening speed. What more, it’s already in Wan Azizah’s phone .

I am not surprise if in the next few days, Saiful would return with admission that the allegation was false and was made under forced, by individuals that would insinuate Najib with the crime.

The allegation is a strategic approach that would result in a domino effect that would lead to another anarchic like episode, similar to what we saw in 1997-1999: the world economy in crisis; similar accusation leveled against Anwar; BN leader refusing to step down; BN breaking down; opposition gaining momentum

The question is what are the end points?

(1) Destroy BN for good. The 1997-1999 episode had weakend BN tremendously. This is the final blow that is likely to destroy BN forever.
(2) Unite the oppositions who are obviously beginning to show significant crack and also to soften the blunders of PR government
(3) Pushing oppositions into government
(4) Pushing the country into anarchy
(5) The final endpoint is to destroy Islam in Malaysia, being the only country where Muslims are progressive

I am not against other parties leading the government. However, the current pack, hurriedly set up, and if successful taking the leadership undemocratically, would not be my ideal government in waiting. Particularly, we could see how the representative of Islam in the PR had failed to represent the voice of Islam.

In conclusion:

(1) I don’t believe the sodomy allegations against Anwar back in the 1990’s; but I also do not believe that those allegations were staged by Mahathir
(2) I don’t believe the sodomy allegation against Anwar now but I also don’t believe the allegation was engineered by BN.

Who was then behind this? Think.

My closing word is stick to the fact.

The most plausible theory to-date remains that it is a clear cut criminal case that needs further investigation by police before it could become a court case.

Why is Anwar looking "takut kerana salah"?

Here we go again. This time it is Clintonesque in nature, i.e. internship problem.

Like revisiting 1999, a police report was made against Anwar Ibrahim by his personal assistant on Saturday at 5:45 pm at the Jalan Traver police station claiming sodomy. The report is available here at Rocky Bru's.

Expectedly, Anwar denied in a press release made through PKR's Vice President, Sivarasa on Sunday.

Wan Azizah claimed conspiracy and showed the picture of Saiful Bukhary (in blue in the picture on the right) with Khairul Anas of the DPM's office. Since then pictures of Saiful with Tok Pa and Shahrir Samad appears leading many to claim he is a Government stooge.

If Abdullah is in the habit of blaming Dr Mahathir whenever something unfavourable crops up, Anwar's natural tendency is to blame Najib. With too much conspiracy theories these days shrouding many events, nothing seemed rational and belieavable any more. Then there is the Malaysians tendency to be partisan and personality driven.

But the right position is to let the police do its investigation. Should there be sufficient evidence, then the judicial process takes its course with the finality lies with the judge/(s). From his own incompetence, Zaid Ibrahim has proven that it is the deception by ass-licking politicians and hypocritical judges and lawyers making unsubstantiated claims that smeared the judiciaryit. The judicial system is generally fine.

My comment on Rocky Bru's posting is edited and reproduced to dispell some of these inconclusive doubt creating conspiracy theories and let the the due process take its course.

Saiful's Picture

Putting up the picture of Saiful next to someone from TPM's office at TPM's office is a great fodder for conspiracy theories and throwing doubts, but it is not conclusive to assume of linkage.

In the picture, Saiful don't look comfortable in those ties. Could the picture be taken in one of his visits to Ministers' office as student leader?



So he is an eager beaver who loves taking photos. Its not conclusive to claim he is Najib's or anyone's stooge in Anwar's office. In fact, what about the possibility Saiful is Anwar's stooge in thsoe Minister's office?

Wan Azizah claimed that they do not have sufficient information on the background of Saiful. She said he was a volunter from the recent GE12 and taken by Anwar as assistant to replace Nik Nazmi.

Its not easy to swallow Wan Azizah's excuse. Anwar can't be that reckless. Furthermore, Wan Azizah and Nurul Izah are no just fillial wife and daughter but they are also politicians. They now know how to twist and turn words.

For a fact, Anwar's former assitance, now ADUN Seri Setia and political Secretary to Selangor Menteri Besar, Nik Nazmi has friends in the Tingkat 4. Can it be assumed he is a stooge of Tingkat 4 in PKR?

Abdullah's Conspiracy?

Predictably in such a situation involving a politician and more so in the case of Anwar Ibrahim, there will be a psywar at work. They are blaming Barisan Nasional and UMNO conspiracy game. So it is not Tun this time.

Does Abdullah have the aptitude and guts to cook up such conspiracy?

Running to the Embassy of an American stooge what Anwar is doing running to the Turkish Embassy would easily have scare off Abdullah.

It won't look right for Anwar to go to the American, British, Singaporean or any quai lo embassies. It will raise more conspiracies on Anwar.

Other than that, there are six probable reasons to dispell the notion that Abdullah is behind it.

One, Abdullah set up the two MCOBA buddy judges to help Anwar free. In actual fact, there is no more legal recourse after Federal Court dismissed the case.Abdullah was reluctant to carry Dr Mahathir's baggage. WIll he want to create another?

Two, it is confirmed that Khairy was in communication with Ezam to help Anwar get his medical treatment. Remember the passport delivery?

Three, Abdullah and Anwar had a close cordial relationship. It is glaringly obvious that Anwar never attack Abdullah hard. His excuse was of family ties.

Four, it is stupid and unreal to use the same conspiracy trick again, if there had been one in the first place. It would be stupid to do a predictable conspiracy. Moreover, it is proven to have back fired in the past. Abdullah would not risk it with his shaky political situation. In fact, could be Anwar's conspiracy as the impetus to public sentiment support to get MPs to crossover.

Five, Anwar and Abdullah has mutual interest. Anwar has privately expressed interest to return to UMNO. No news reported any annoucement of his PKR membership. Anwar is a convenient ally for Abdullah to ward off challenges on his leadership. In fact, Anwar and Abdullah's Tingkat 4 has common agenda, both not liked by Malay Nationalist.

Six, there are those in the know of cooperation between Anwar and Abdullah on matter other than politics.

Believing only few of the above is sufficient to say that it can't be Abdullah.

How About Najib?

Will it be possible Najib is trying to set up Anwar since he is viewed as a quite sleepy lion that could be lethal with a moment's jump?

But could he do so without resources at his disposal?

When Anwar was making wild allegations since Ijok's by election, Najib did nothing. He could have made police report for contempt of court or sue him. Indeed, he would have won, but he didn't sue.

So why must he take a riskier option to get someone to "tadah bontot"?! These days anyone can squell or the right price.

Stick to Something Conclusive

Be it Altantunya's murder or Anwar's sodomy police report, stick only to conclusive fact of evidences, motive, and undebatable arguments. Refute any allegatiosn of police abuse or judicial tampering, it is a preemptive excuse for face saving for eventuality.

In short, someone made a police report and it will be investigated. If there is sufficient evidence, it will be brought to the court. Let the court decide!

Zaid Ibrahim and RC has not proven conclusively that the judiciary system is wrong, even for teh case of Tun Salleh Abas. Only people is wrong - judges and lawyers. Nevertheless, the judiciary has sufficent mechanism for appeal as long as it is based on fact and not cooked-up doubt creating conspiracy.

The troubling thing now is why Anwar is no more in his "berani kerana benar" self but looking more "takut kerana salah"?

Doubt there are threat on his life to warrant him to hide in the Turkish Embassy. Fear from the from staunch Reformasi people perhaps?

Zaid Ibrahim Chicken Out!

Karpal seek for Dr Mahathir to be given chance to defend himself. However,
Zaid Ibrahim maintain his oblivity to the new fact presented by Dr Mahathir in press conference and new development of police report made Dato Ibrahim Ali and Matthias Chang on June 26th, 2008.

He said the Government can't be forming Tribunal and Royal Commssion every now and then. The issue is that those enquiries are provided under the law when the cirucmstances arise. It is not when the Government feels like doing it.

On Dr Mahathir's claim that judges accepting ex-gratia are accepting bribes to demonise him, Zaid asked the matter to be put to rest. That is the most inappropriate answer. It shows Zaid does not have a clear defensible position.

It looks like Zaid is chickening out from taking any position and decision. He is ruuning away from justifiying his actions too!

Give Chance To Defend

Karpal's comment as reported by The Star June 28th, 2008 below:

Give Dr M chance to defend himself, says Karpal

KUALA LUMPUR: Former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad should be given every opportunity to defend himself over the allegations made by High Court Judge Datuk Ian Chin, said DAP chairman Karpal Singh.

In a statement, Karpal Singh said, according to Justice Chin, Dr Mahathir had threatened judges in 1997 to decide in favour of the Government, and had sent judges to boot camp.

He said Justice Chin had made serious allegations against Dr Mahathir during proceedings in an election petition in Sibu.

“However, these allegations have been made by the judge under the cloak of absolute immunity. Justice Chin should not abuse the process of court to make disclosures condemning Dr Mahathir,” he added.

He said Justice Chin should be brave enough to make statements against Dr Mahathir bereft of the cloak of absolute immunity to give the former premier an opportunity to take him on in a court of law.

“Dr Mahathir has now made certain allegations against Justice Chin and called for the setting up of a tribunal against him for judicial misconduct.

“There should be no discrimination. The law is no respecter of persons,” Karpal Singh said.

He said if Dr Mahathir's allegations had merit, then the necessary action should be taken against Justice Chin.

“Dr Mahathir has every right to pursue the allegations he has made.”

Likewise, Karpal Singh said, the Government should not in any way act to give the perception to the public that Dr Mahathir no longer enjoyed the rights of a citizen to demand justice.

Simply Ignore

Zaid's reply as reported by Bernama report dated June 29th, 2008 below:

'No basis to probe claim of judge's misconduct'

KOTA BARU: There is no need to set up a tribunal to investigate judge Datuk Ian Chin's alleged breaches of the judicial code of ethics, as the government believes that the allegations had no basis. Minister in the Prime Minister's Department Datuk Zaid Ibrahim said if former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad or others had proof of Chin's alleged misconduct, they could report the matter to the police or the chief justice.

"The government cannot be setting up a tribunal every now and then, just because someone says it should do so," he said after opening the 40th annual meeting of the Malaysian Ex-Servicemen Association yesterday.

On Thursday, Dr Mahathir had asked the government whether it would set up a tribunal to investigate Chin's alleged misconduct.

Dr Mahathir claimed that while Chin revealed on June 9 that judges were threatened and sent to a boot camp by the former prime minister, he did not reveal that there was a police report lodged against him for alleged breaches of the judicial code of ethics for hearing a case in which he had an interest.

Zaid said for the record, Chin had discharged his duties well.

The government, he said, had no intention of interfering in the problems between the judge and the former prime minister.

Zaid, the de-facto law minister, also urged all parties to stop demanding that the government reveal the amount of ex gratia payments made to six former judges, who were either sacked or suspended during the 1988 judicial crisis.

He said the government had to respect the wishes of the recipients and their family members, that the amount was to be kept private.

"Besides, it was the government which suggested the payments.

"Let us put the issue to rest as the government wants to settle the matter amicably," he said.

The goodwill ex gratia payment was announced by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi on April 18.

The government made the last and final payment on June 20 to former lord president Tun Salleh Abas, who was sacked during the crisis, along with Supreme Court judges Datuk Seri George Seah and Tan Sri Wan Hamzah Mohamed Salleh.

Three other judges were suspended for three months.

They were Tan Sri Azmi Kamaruddin, Tan Sri Eusoffe Abdoolcader and Tan Sri Wan Suleiman Pawanteh. -- Bernama

As revealed by Dato Ibrahim Ali last week in a function in Telok Intan, it is believed that each judges were given RM1.5 million. Thats a total sum RM6 million.

What is the justification to pay these judges without having to undergo the "due process"? It also raises the issue of how does Government spend its money? Do they not go through process of budget, allocations, collective decisions and etc.?

What is the justification for Zaid to say that Chin had discharged his duty well when compelling evidence and supporting judgements are made against Chin?

Isn't Chin as a former Berjaya politician with dedicated hatred and personal experiance involving Syed Kecik in conflict when he presided over a case involving Syed Kechik and the Federal Court has questioned the judgements he made?

So how do you address judges misconduct if not by a Tribunal or Royal Commission? Is the Government's position that judges are free to do anyrthing that fancies them?

With the sort of judicial considerations to be given by a lawyer who was convicted of bribery by UMNO, can one expect a true judicial reform? Or it is lip service for political survival for Abdullah?

Its getting clear that the critical issue on the judiciary is not systematic but human in nature, meaning its the fault of lawyers and judges!

Will Zaid Dare call a Royal Commission or Tribunal on Ian Chin?

Justice Dato Ian Chin again used the open court to hit back at Dr Mahathir during an election petition hearing in Sibu last Tuesday afternoon June 24th, 2008. He said:

“...Dr Mahathir for what he had done and for what he is trying to do is a devil incarnate but to those who had suffered under his hands, even that description my be rather complimentary ...”

This brought about an immediate response from Dr Mahathir who had to call a press conference at his Petronas office on the 86th FLoor of KLCC to make a strtling revelation on Justice Ian Chin. (To read press statement read further.)


On the same day, Tun's former political secretary, lawyer Matthias Cnang and Independent Parlimentarian Dato Ibrahim Ali made a police report at the Jalan Travers, Bangsar police station. (Read further on the press statement on the police report.)

Last week, Matthias had challenged Ian Chin for a debate and cite him for contempt of court in his own court. The latest heard is Matthias will sue Ian Chin for calling him a "lapdog". (For further development, keep track on Matthias Chang's blog Fastforward.)

Dato Ibrahim who was then Deputy Minister in charge of law at the Prime Minister's Department said, "Judge Ian Chin had contested as a political candidate and failed. His judgements on political matters are therefore questionable."

The revelation on Ian Chin constitute a judicial misconduct. Will Zaid Ibrahim initiate a Royal Commission or Tribunal? Dr Mahathir doesn't think the Government would do so.


Zaid had committed to a stand that there will be no more firing of judges at the controversial Bar Council dinner. With a case so clear, will he stoop to politics and forego his commitment to his legal reform?

As it is, words are Zaid is frustrated with the rejection he faced on his judicial reform plan by the cabinet members and UMNO grassroots. Will he quit or will he stay on?

PRESS STATEMENT BY YABhg TUN DR MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD

Police report and legal documents on Ian Chin

This statement was issued yesterday, June 26, 2008 in response to Judge Ian Chin's allegations towards Dr Mahathir

1. On June 10, The Borneo Post reported Judge Ian Chin's "explosive judicial disclosure", about how judges were threatened and sent to Boot Camps by the former Prime Minister.

2. He made these revelations prior to hearing a case, apparently to avoid being accused of bias.

3. What he did not reveal is that there is a police report against him for breaches of Judge's Code of Ethics in hearing a case in which he has a personal interest. He presided on a case involving Dato Syed Kechik without revealing that he believed Syed Kechik was responsible for detaining his father and brother 20 years before.

4. Chin joined Party Berjaya and lost twice. One of the objectives listed in Party Berjaya's manifesto was to expel Syed Kechik from Sabah. (Syed Kechik akan dikeluarkan dari Sabah). As a party member he must know Berjaya's hatred for Syed Kechik. This alone should have resulted in him excusing himself from hearing the case.

5. However, both the Claimants and Defendants in the hearing in 1999 did not seek to change the judge, believing that his being a Party Berjaya candidate would not affect his judgement.

6. It was only later that the defendants learnt about the detentions of his father and brother by the Tun Mustafa Government and that Ian Chin believed Syed Kechik was instrumental in getting his father and brother arrested.

7. John R Cherryman Q.C., lawyer for Dato Syed Kechik (DSK) in a written opinion after Chin J's ruling of September 2, 2004, said inter alia "Looking at these matters in retrospect there emerges a pattern redolent of bias".

8. Cherryman went on to say; "Knowing what we do now, the inference was that the Judge (Chin J) was throughout determined to have revenge against DSK (and corporate Defendants) for his (Dato Syed Kechik's) alleged part in the detention of his family members.

9. When Party Berjaya won the State elections in April 1976, the Berjaya Government cancelled Syarikat Banita's (belonging to Syed Kechik) timber license and on 1st October 1976 published Gazette Notification No 671 on compulsory acquisition of the whole of Zara Project Land of 2,452.74 acres also belonging to Syed Kechik.

10. On 7th September 1977 Banita filed a civil suit against the State Government and on 28th September 1977 Zara filed for the adjudication of compensation claim in respect of compulsory acquisition of its land for "public purpose".

11. The Sabah Government through the Sabah Foundation, Suiswan Sdn Bhd and Seranum Sdn Bhd filed counter claims against DSK, Zara Sdn Bhd and Banita Sdn Bhd.

12. For about 20 years the Plaintiffs and their Solicitors went to "sleep". No court action was taken.

13. Then on October 29th 1996 Justice Tee Ah Siang heard the case involving Originating Summons No 69 of 1977. The judge ordered the payment of RM40,920,011.00 in capital compensation by the State Government to Zara Sdn Bhd with 6 % per annum interest from 20th December 1976 to date of settlement.

14. Then on 6th January 1997, Chin J granted ex-parte Mareva Injunction Orders against the Defendants in suit 351 and 352 in response to the Plaintiffs (Sabah Government) application.

15. The very next day Chin J instructed Registrar to set hearing of Suit 351 on 9th January 1997, i.e. three days after he granted injunction against the Defendants.

16. On 9th April 1997 he delivered judgement on Strike Out Actions, refusing to grant order in favour of Defendants (Zara Sdn Bhd).

17. On 5th February 1999 a joint hearing of Suits 351 and 352 was held before Chin J at the Kota Kinabalu High Court. On 6th September 1999 Chin J delivered his judgement in which he stated on pgs 122-125: "Yes, DSK was from West Malaysia sent to Sabah supposedly to help Sabah politically. Unfortunately, he introduced to Sabah, especially to the then politicians of Sabah, a way to get rich, very rich at that, quickly by way which I have already concluded are wrong in law."

18. Chin J also said in his judgement that "DSK wielded too much power for anyone to believe that any bureaucrat would oppose him". He concluded with dismissing with cost the application of the 2nd Defendant to strike out the injunction.

19. It became obvious that Chin J was biased against DSK. Yet he did not reveal his father's and brother's arrest during the time of Tun Mustafa's Government and his belief that Syed Kechik who was adviser to Tun Mustafa was responsible for this arrest when hearing the case concerned.

20. Following this a police report was made by Pengarah, Zara Sdn Bhd on June 16, 2005 on "Salahlaku Hakim Datuk Ian Chin Hon Chong". (refer to salinan report and 1st page of police report)


21. The report went from Police to Chief Justice Malaysia to Ministers, to the Anti Corruption Agency, to Suhakam (Human Rights Commission) and even to the Prime Minister. No action was taken by any of them.

22. In the meanwhile the cases (DSK, Zara and Banita) went to the Federal Court and a judgement was made on March 25, 2008 and this is what the Federal Court has to say of Chin J's High Court judgement in the Zara and Banita suits.

23. "Without evidence or justification, the learned Judge wrongly held that DSK made these decisions. We find that the learned Judge's findings were based on unjustified inferences, speculation, his own preconceived impressions and prejudice..." and; "We find the learned Judge's attack on the credbility of SSA (Syed Salem Al-Bukhary , the younger brother of DSK - who represented his incapacitated brother) as unwarranted and does not stand up to examination having regard to the extremely prejudiced view he held about SSA's conduct as apparent in his judgment."

24. This Federal Court judgement is likely to come in support of the alleged "Salahlaku" by Chin J in the Police Report by Zara Sdn Bhd.

25. Action is now more likely to be taken against Chin J for breach of the ethical code of judges when he did not reveal his personal interest in the case he was hearing and not recuse himself.

26. His "explosive judicial disclosures" of June 7, 2008 came shortly after the Federal Courts judgment on Mar 25th 2008 and appears to be a desperate attempt ro deflect the legitimate complain against him by the Defendants of Civil Suits Nos 351 and 352 of 1979 which the Federal Courts' decision seem to support.

27. The reference to the threats by the former Prime Minister and his being sent to a Boot Camp had nothing to do with the case he was about to hear or his previous hearing of a case in which he had personal interest. Refer to statement by Tan Sri Abu Talib Othman, former Attorney-General and current chairman of Suhakam.

28. It looks as if he was trying to curry favour with the Government by demonising the previous Prime Minister whom everyone knows is the bete noir of the present Government.

29. And he was quite right because Government Ministers and the Prime Minister rushed to accept his story as absolutely true. But other judges had refused to endorse his statement about threats by the Prime Minister casting doubt on its veracity. He now "slams a fellow judge in court" but he has not been able to condemn the other judges who also disagreed with him. The Boot Camp was of course not a Boot Camp at all. It was Kursus Tata Negara which had been attended by thousands of civil servants, business executives and politicians, without any complaints.

30. It will be interesting to see whether the Government would set up a tribunal to examine the charges against Ian Chin J.

31. I suspect that it will not. And so this judge who obviously breached The Judges Code of Ethics by "being a judge in his own cause" will simply get away with his unethical behaviour while presiding over a case.

32. The public should question how a person such as Ian Chin J should have been recommended to become a judge. I cannot remember recommending him. He is a disgrace to the judiciary and to the legal profession.

33. Now Chin has changed his accusation of "veiled threat" to "the former premier did not say he would remove judges through a tribunal in those exact words but conveyed the threat by "dropping words to that effect here and there". I wonder what the words are. He will now be thinking and cooking up more stories.

34. This reflects the character of the man who presides over our courts and dispenses "justice". He makes use of his position as a judge and the courts to take revenge for alleged actions against members of his family.


PRESS STATEMENT BY MATTHIAS CHANG ON
THE POLICE REPORT MADE AGAINST JUSTICE DATUK IAN CHIN


On 9th and 24th June 2008, Justice Datuk Ian Chin made two statements in Open Court using language unbecoming of a Judge and highly defamatory allegations against the former Prime Minister, Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad. His statements have been contradicted by two judges, one a former Court of Appeal Judge and another serving judge.

I am of the view that the said Judge has committed contempt of court in that his behaviour has scandalized the court and brought the entire judiciary into disrepute.

What is most startling is that since 9th June 2008, the Chief Justice, the President of the Court of Appeal, the Chief Judge of Malaya and the Chief Judge for Sarawak and Sabah have remained silent regarding the conduct of the said Justice Datuk Ian Chin.

I believe that the aforesaid judges, other than the President of the Court of Appeal were present at the Judges’ Conference in 1997. They could confirm or deny the allegations made by Justice Datuk Ian Chin.

If Justice Datuk Ian Chin’s statements have no basis whatsoever, surely he has misconducted himself as a judge. In the circumstances, the public need to know whether the Chief Justice intends to take any action against Justice Datuk Ian Chin, and why he has failed to comment on this matter.

I am most disappointed with the conduct of the Chief Justice and I hope that in due course, a statement will be forthcoming from his office.

Matthias Chang
26th June 2008

Adakah Najib Memberi Isyarat?

Berhubung jawapan Dato Seri Najib Tun Abdul Razak tentang pemilihan UMNO semasa sidang akhbar semalam, Jeanbara dari blog Depa Kata bertanya "Belum cadang atau belum buat keputusan?"

Mungkin persoalan itu timbul kerana frustasi atau kekecewaan ramai terhadap Najib yang kelihatan seolah-olah membiarkan sahaja Abdullah melakukan tindakan dan keputusan sesuka hati. Ramai yang begitu kecewa hingga memanggil Najib sebagai pengecut.

Apakah realiti disebalik persepsi? Adakah sesuatu disebalik jawapan sidang akhbar itu?

Dilema Najib

Cara permainan Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim membuat tuduhan terhadap Najib dan Rosmah sejak pilihanraya kecil Ijok tahun lepas berkenaan kes Altantunya agak menyusahkan. Oleh kerana kes sedang berjalan, Najib tidak boleh memberikan sebarang kenyataan kerana ia kesalahan menghina mahkamah.

Akibat terlalu diasak Anwar, persepsi itu mula diterima sebagai realiti. Perkembangan terbaru pula menjadikan keadaan lebih besar penggemburannya.

Abdullah menyedari Najib adalah tentangann sebenarnya. Dia telah mengambil peluang untuk "mengunci" Najib dengan kenyataan Najib bersetuju dan menyerahkan kepadanya untuk menetapkan masa peralihan kuasa.

Peluang itu terbuka apabila media Abdullah memutarbelitkan kenyataan Najib mengenai "kesetiaan kepada parti" dengan pelajar-pelajar Malaysia di London.

Namun begitu, ramai tidak mempercayai kenyataan Abdullah kerana reputasinya yang suka berbohong. Abdullah pernah berbohong menafi mengarah Najib atau sesiapa ahli Majlis Tertinggi UMNO atau Kabinet untuk bertemu Tun Dr Mahathir.

Kenyataan itu pelik kerana Najib tidak mengiyakan dengan jelas kenyataan itu dan Abdullah masih mahu bertanding pada bulan Disember. Sumber-sumber yang boleh dipercayai berkata pertemuan itu tidak berlaku.

Kes Pembunuhan Altantunya

Ramai berpersepsi bahawa Najib dan Rosmah terlibat dengan kes pembunuhan Altantunya kerana dipengaruhi oleh pelbagai andaian dan teori-teori konspirasi.

Sehingga pelbagai tuduhan ini disertakan dengan bukti, ianya tidak boleh diterimapakai sebagai bukti. Bila terdedah pun, hanya mahkamah yang boleh menentukan bukti-bukti ini sahih. Mengikut pendapat seorang peguam, Deklarasi Berkanun yang dibuat Raja Petra tidak berasas kerana dia adalah orang ketiga dan ia masih berupa "hearsay".

Kes pembunuhan Altantunya adalah satu capital offense dan beban bukti untuk kes bunuh adalah begitu berat. Memandangkan hukuman boleh melibatkan hukum mati, bukti harus memenuhi kriteria "beyond reasonable doubt". Ia bermakna buktinya tidak ada langsung syak dan waham.

Ramai mengetepikan realiti undang-undang bahawa membuat komen dan kenyataan mengenai kes itu boleh dianggap mempengaruhi mahkamah dan adalah kesalahan menghina mahkamah (contempt of court). Jika Najib ingin menyaman sesiapa yang telah memalukannya pun, ianya hanya boleh dilakukan setelah prosiding mahkamah selesai.

Kes pembunuhan Altantunya ini mempunyai terlalu banyak elemen politik hingga susah untuk dipercayai apa sekali andaian dan teori konspirasi yang diajukan.

Dalam sehari dua selepas Abdul Razak Baginda ditangkap, perang psikoloji mengkaitkan Najib dengan kes ini melalui SMS telah tersebar. Buku Khairy Chronicle pernah menceritakan rancangan Khairy untuk membunh kerjaya politik Najib.

Walaupun Deklarasi Berkanun Raja Petra tidak dapat dilihat kesahihannya, namun menarik sekali kenyataan Abdullah menafikan pembabitan Najib dan Rosmah. Abdullah dan Khairy juga telah menafikan menerima surat laporan sulit tentera berkenaan kes ini.

Ramai bekas askar dan polis mengalami masaalah psikologi dari menembak mati musuh dan penjenayah. Adakah logik untuk Rosmah mendedahkan diri untuk menyaksikan pengeboman mayat manusia dan tidak merasai kesan psikologi pada dirinya?

Walaupun ada yang menganggap Deklarasi Berkanun itu hanya publicity stunt Raja Petra, perlu difahami dia sedang menghadapi tuduhan mahkamah dibawah Akta Hasutan dan ia perlukan lakukan sesuatu untuk kesnya.

Ramai melihat tuduhan terhadap Raja Petra yang akan dibicarakan pada awal bulan Oktober boleh dilihat sebagai usaha untuk menyusahkan kempen Najib dalam pemilihan UMNO pada bulan Disember kelak. Mengapa artikel itu yang digunakan untuk tuduhan hasutan, dan bukan artikel-artikel Raja Petra lain?

Disebaliknya, laporan polis oleh Pendakwa Raya terhadap Raja Petra pun mempunyai justifikasinya kerana kelihatan seolah-olah tindakan Raja Petra boleh mencampuri perjalanan prosiding mahkamah yang ada.

Kenyataan Sidang Akhbar

Selain masaalah persepsi yang perlu dihadapi Najib, ia berada dalam kedudukan yang agak serba salah dan terkekang oleh seorang bos yang tidak rasional dan berubah-ubah dalam membuat keputusan.

Abdullah, bukan sahaja menyerlah tetapi begitu kerap, membuat keputusan tanpa berbincang dengan kabinet. Sudah menjadi kelaziman untuk menginterpretasi sesuka hati dan melanggar undang-undang, peraturan-peraturan dan amalan-amalan terdahulu (precedent) parti dan kerajaan.

Keadaan bertambah buruk dengan budaya takut dan mengampu untuk kepentingan diri yang berleluasa di dalam Kabinet dan Majlis Tertinggi. Tentu sekali sebarang teguran dan penentangan tidak akan mendapat sokongan dan bantuan dari rakan-rakan lain.

Disebaliknya, jika Najib tidak menyahut panggilan berjuang oleh akar umbi dan desakan Dr Mahathir, dia sedar kerjaya politiknya akan berkubur bersama Abdullah. Najib terlalu dekat dengan Abdullah bagaikan degupan jantung untuk dapat melakukan apa-apa. Jika keadaan ini terus dibiarkan, kesalahan-kesalahan Abdullah akan dianggap sebagai kesalahannya juga.

Tetapi Abdullah tidak akan menerima Najib sebagai regu pertandingan kerana terlalu jelas keutamaannya adalah untuk meletakkan Khairy dalam kedudukkan untuk menggantinya. Pilihan Najib hanyalah untuk menentang Abdullah.

Pasti dia sedari harapan akar umbi kepadanya untuk menurunkan Abdullah kerana kedudukan politiknya yang lebih viable. Jika dia bergerak terlalu awal, dia bakal dikorbankan. Keadaan ini bagaikan menarik benang dari tepung yang tidak boleh terlerai.

Laporan Bernama bertarikh 27 Jun, 2008 menarik. Sedutannya adalah seperti berikut:

Najib Belum Cadang Bertanding Jawatan Presiden

KUALA LUMPUR, 27 Jun (Bernama) -- Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak hari Khamis berkata beliau belum membuat sebarang keputusan sama ada akan bertanding jawatan Presiden Umno pada pemilihan parti Disember ini.

Timbalan Perdana Menteri itu berkata belum tiba masa untuk beliau mengumumkan mengenai perkara itu.

"Saya akan buat ketetapan apabila sampai masanya, ada masa lagi," katanya kepada pemberita selepas mesyuarat Dewan Tertinggi Barisan Nasional (BN) di sini Khamis malam.

Mengikut peraturan Umno, calon jawatan Presiden perlu mendapat pencalonan sekurang-kurangnya 30 peratus daripada keseluruhan bahagian Umno di seluruh negara. ...

Dengan mengatakan belum tiba masa untuk membuat pengumuman, adakah Najib sedang memberi isyarat kepada pengikut-pengikutnya?

Mungkin mereka sahaja yang faham.

Diharap demikian, kerana tataetika UMNO yang baru dikeluarkan oleh Majlis Tertinggi seolah-olah usaha untuk mengekang kemaraan Tengku Razaleigh dan Tan Sri Muhyiddin.

Bagi ramai orang, siapa pengganti Abdullah adalah isu kedua, kerana keutamaan adalah untuk memastikan Abdullah berundur segera. Jika ia berterusan, kita hanya akan terus mengalami huruhara dan kehancuran akibat kuncu-kuncu Abdullah yang berleluasa menggadaikan kedaulatan agama, bangsa dan negara.

Tembelang Khalid Bocor

Baru hari minggu lepas, kerajaan negeri Selangor yang diketuai oleh PKR meraikan 100 pertamanya. Kini kepimpinan Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim sebagai Menteri Besar sudah dipersoalkan oleh ahli-ahli PKR dan juga ADUN-ADUN PKR.

Sebenarnya petanda tidak baik sudah mula timbul semasa perayaan 100 hari yang digembur-gemburkan sebagai meraikan 100 hari untuk kerajaan-kerajaan negeri Pakatan Rakyat.

Perjumpaan yang menjanjikan 100,000 kedatangan terasa amat dingin dan sepi. Ia hanya menarik dalam 10-15,000 orang saja. Jumlah ini hanya menyerupai perhimpunan Black 14 pada April 14hb, 2008 di Kampung Baru. Mungkinkah cara PKR memonopoli pentas dan perayaan telah menyinggung penggiat-penggiat PAS?

Jika dilihat, Presiden PAS dan MB-MB PAS yang diwar-warkan hadhir tidak pula hadhir. Dato Dr Hasan Ali yang sepatutnya berucap bersama-sama Lim Kit Siang tidak berucap. Yang jelas kelihatan, hanya bendera-bendera PKR di sana sini dan Anwar Ibrahim berucap.

Kini sudah terdedah wang sumbangan dari pihak swasta tidak dimasukkan di dalam akaun kerajaan negeri tetapi akaun PKR. Pemuda PAS sudah menyuarakan kekecewaan terhadap insiden ini.

Sekarang timbul pula, isu terbaru. Sebagaimana yang telah jurublog ini tulis sebelum ini, perasaan tidak puashati sudah timbul dari penyokong reformasi asal. Mereka mula menyatakan Khalid sedang berusaha mengetepikan penggiat reformasi dalam perlantikan kounselar-kounselar tempatan.

Perkara ini berlaku ikutan terdedahnya peranan Khalid dalam laporan polis yang dibuat oleh empat ahli PKR terhadap Yahya Saari, Setiausaha Khasnya sendiri. Rupanya abang Khalid sendiri, Hajiman Ibrahim yang telah mengarahkan Remy Iskandar mengator laporan tersebut.

Di dalam sidang akhbar sebelum ini, Khalid telah menyatakan penyiasatan awal menunjukkan tiada kes. Kenyataan ini pelik kerana seolah-olah Khalid bertindak sebagai jurucakap BPR. Dua hari lepas, Khalid pula mengumumkan Yahya digantung selama dua bulan menunggu penyiasatan siap.

Modus operandi Khalid ini menyerupai cara lamanya semasa memegang jawatan CEO Guthrie dan di PNB. Seorang penulis di MyKMU mendedahkan Khalid pernah melakukan cara yang sama di Guthrie. Dia memberi tekanan hingga seorang Pengurus terpaksa bukan sahaja berhenti tetapi hingga berhijrah ke New Zealand untuk mencari nafkah bagi keluarganya.

Mungkinkah salahlaku yang menyebabkan Yahya digantung itu adalah arahan Khalid sendiri? Semalam, akhbar Sinar Harian telah menyiarkan penafian Khalid dalam caption.

Yahya yang mengetahui mengenai rancangan Khalid disebalik tabir telah bertindak untuk meletak jawatan. Ramai akar umbi dan pemegang jawatan yang tidak puas hati terhadap cara penggantungan telah menyokong Yahya.

Malam semalam, sekumpulan ahli PKR berdemonstrasi menuntut Khalid meletakkan jawatan di hadapan kediaman rasmi MB di Shah Alam. Ketidak puasanhati terhadap kepimpinan Khalid yang mengikut cara pengurusan lamanya yang “self centered”, otokratik dan memaksa mula terbongkar.

Tunggu masa, mereka mungkin akan sedar cara bergerak Khalid yang penuh dengan hasad dengki yang pernah menyebabkan semua peneroka awal PNB meninggalkan organisasi itu. Kesemua mereka itu adalah orang-orang berwibawa. Rasmi Khalid sentiasa mencemburu mereka yang lebih cerdik, bijak dan berkebolehan darinya.

Lama kelamaan mereka mungkin akan sedar akan amalan kronisma Khalid yang telah jurublog dedahkan. Sumber-sumber yang boleh dipercayai dari kalangan ahli-ahli perniagaan Cina menyatakan mereka tidak puas dengan persekongkolan Khalid dengan Dato Lim Kim Hong.

Sumber-sumber yang juga boleh dipercayai menyatakan Khalid sedang menghadapai masaalah dengan bank dalam lingkungan jumlah RM1.8 juta. Dia perlu menampal balik lubang di Bank tersebut agar ianya tidak menjejaskan jawatannya dalam politik.

Alah bisa tegal biasa. Sebagaimana yang pernah dilakukan, Khalid sedang merancang untuk melencongkan projek dan kontrak kepada rakan baiknya Lim.

Apa pula peranan ahli-ahli korporat ternama di dalam PKR sekarang? Ini pun menjadi isu yang sedang ditimbulkan oleh akar umbi PKR yang melihat mereka sebagai opportunis.

Semalam Yahya berjumpa Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim dalam pertemuan empat mata. Apa yang harus Anwar lakukan? Kita jangan lupa pula kata-kata Anwar semasa berkempen untuk Khalid di pilihanraya kecil Ijok. Dia menyatakan mengenali Khalid lama dan yakin dengan kejujuran dan kebolehannya.

Bagi yang mengetahui dan mengenali Anwar, mereka tidak akan menerima bulat-bulat kata-kata Anwar yang sentiasa bercambah dan bercanggah.

Pakatan Rakyat mungkin tidak berpecah hanya kerana insiden ini, walaupun pihak pembangkang Selangor berharap demikian. Namun, agak tidak adil kepada pengundi, jika cepat sangat Selangor kembali kepada pentadbiran BN/UMNO.

Mungkinkah lebih baik, PAS sahaja yang menerajui Selangor? Cuba pula Dato Dr Hasan Ali. Mungkin janji manis mu boleh dikotakan. Jangan marah.

Pak Lah Dikritik Akar Umbi UMNO Johor

Pada hari Ahad lepas, Jun 22hb, 2008, satu lagi siri perjumpaan dengan Ketua-Ketua Cawangan diadakan di PWTC, Kuala Lumpur yang dipanggil Majlis Ramah Mesra melibatkan UMNO Johor bersama Pak Lah.

Dari 2,000 yang dijemput, adalah dalam 1,000 yang hadhir. Dalam suasana ekonomi yang sedang menyuram, siapa pula yang belanja begitu besar untuk membawa begitu ramai Ketua-Ketua Cawangan.

Kata sumber-sumber dari Johor, mereka ditempatkan di Hotel Vistana berbintang tiga. Setiap seorang dihadiahkan sehelai kain pelikat cap jenama Wali Songo dari seorang Menteri dari Perak dan wang jajan (duit berbelanja) sebanyak RM100 seorang.

Setelah teruk dibelasah akarumbi dalam sesi-sesi sebelum ini, harus disanjungi kecekalan Pak Lah untuk meneruskan program ini yang hanya akan mengulang kritikan dan kecaman terhadap kepimpinannya.

Namun, majlis untuk negeri Johor yang dihadhiri oleh Menteri Besar Johor, Dato' Haji Abdul Ghani Othman, Menteri Pengajian Tinggi, Datuk Sri Khalid Nordin, dan Datuk Seri Adnan bertindak sebagai Juruacara tidak jauh berbeza. Malah, lebih terus terang dan tegas mereka menuntutnya mengundur.

Menurut MyKMU Johor, usul dari seorang ketua cawangan menuntut Pak Lah segera melepaskan jawatan sebagai Perdana Menteri mendapat sorakan kuat dari para hadhirin. Alasan mereka adalah susah untuk ahli-ahli UMNO akar umbi mempertahankan Pak Lah dari dikritik oleh rakyat Johor.

Isu-isu lain yang begitu lantang disuarakan adalah isu kenaikan harga barang yang tidak dapat kawal oleh kerajaan, isu pemencilan orang-orang Melayu Johor di Iskandar Malaysia, dan isu ketuanan dan hak-hak masyarakat Melayu di Iskandar Malaysia.

Satu usul mengenai Iskandar Malaysia yang mendapat sorakan hadhirin adalah menuntut dikajisemula pelaksanaannya yang rata-rata dilihat menyebelahi Singapura dan menjadikan Iskandar Malaysia sebagai "Woodland" kedua.

Kebanyakan usul dan pertanyaan dari para hadirin begitu jelas perasaan ketidak puasan hati ahli-ahli akarumbi UMNO di Johor.

Melainkan Ketua-Ketua Cawangan dari Bahagian UMNO Pasir Gudang yang diketuai oleh Dato Khaled Nordin, boleh dianggap rata-rata akar umbi Johor menolak kepimpinan Pak Lah dan inginkan peralihan kuasa disegerakan.

Pak Lah sudah perlu berhenti mempercayai nombor 13 itu nombor bertuah untuknya lagi. Jika akarumbi UMNO Johor, negeri yang begitu pekat kesetiaannya kepada UMNO sudah menolaknya, begitu jugalah orangramai di Johor.

Mengekalkan Pak Lah untuk PRU13, tidak menjanjikan kemenangan untuk UMNO. Janganlah berdegil lagi dan memutarbelit di suratkhabar seolah-olah ada sokongan, kerana sebenarnya tidak ada sokongan. Baik berundur sahajalah kalau sayangkan UMNO.

Kepimpinan Khalid Dipersoalkan Penggiat PKR

Nora Penggiat Akar Umbi Reformasi Menuntut Penurunan Khalid Ibrahim

Kalau jurublog ini yang tulis, pasti orang PKR akan kata saya berniat jahat untuk menjatuhkan Tan Sri Khalid.

Walaupun jurublog terangkan sudah mendedahkan ketidak amanahan Khalid dari semasa dia ahli UMNO dan orang besar yang dipercayai kerajaan lagi, pasti mereka akan mencari alasan-alasan alih pandang dan bernahi nahi juga.

Jurublog ini mungkin dianggap mengkritik Khalid kerana anti Brader Anwar Bin Ibrahim. Itu memang benar saya penentang Anwar. Tetapi bukan dari zaman reformasi tetapi dari masa melihat sendiri keangkuhan Anwar di luar negara pada akhir tahun 70an semasa di Universiti.

Jurublog ini ada dituduh cybertrooper UMNO. Aisay, janganlah rendahkan saya sebagai "Cybertrooper". Malah, saya mengkritik keras "Cybertrooper" yang katanya dibayar Azalina kerana cara mereka yang tidak matang, cetek pengetahuan dan murah pendekatan dalam berhujuh.

Pernah jurublog ini mengatakan ada sesuatu yang anih dan pelik disebalik kenyataan Khalid berkenaan pembantunya Yahya Saari, kerana Khalid cuba mengalih pandang kepada isu air. Hari ni jelas ada yang tidak kena.

Apa pula alasan jika Star SMS Alert memberitahu berikut:

23/6 A top aide to Selangor MB Khalid Ibrahim, who is under ACA probe for allegedly 'fixing' cleaning contracts, has been suspended for two months/STAR

Oh ya, Khalid berkata Yahya akan dihantar kursus.

Apa alasan jika yang menulis adalah Nora, penggiat akar umbi gerakan reformasi yang kini menyokong Yahya Saari pula?

Saya paparkan sepenuhnya tanpa tapisan, tulisan Nora, seorang penggiat Reformasi yang kini sudah hilang kepercayaan dengan MB Selangor dari PKR, Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim:

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Desakan MB Selangor letak jawatan!

Salam semua,

Bermula dengan SMS ini, Nora pada asalnya tidak mahu pergi. Hari ini ada janji dengan anak Nora, Farah untuk pergi membeli belah. Namun setelah selesai membeli belah, ada kelapangan waktu. Nora pergi untuk melihat apa yang berlaku.

Ini SMS yang Nora terima.

Semua AJK, Ahli AMK, penyokong parti dan aktivis reformasi , sila berkumpul di DIAMOND SQUARE GOMBAK jam 5pm hari ini, kita akan luahkan perasaan pada Yahya Saari, semua bahagian seluruh Selangor sila ambil tindakan/sebarkan segera dan bawa sepanduk.

Ini nyata berlainan. Ini perhimpunan yang mendesak MB Selangor untuk meletak jawatan. MB Selangor dikatakan bertindak untuk kroni baru sahaja dan mereka yang berjuang lama tidak diendahkan seolah-olah perjuangan hanya perlu ikhlas bagi mereka yang tercakar dan tercalar kehidupan menuntut reformasi sebelum ini tetapi tidak perlu ikhlas untuk mereka yang selama ini berpeluk tubuh tetapi penuh hipokrasi untuk mencelah dan mendapat habuan hasil dari pengorbanan orang lain. Adil ke macam itu. Kita bercerita mengenai keadilan bukan mempersoalkan apa yang kita dapat dan apa yang orang lain dapat. Kita selalu bercakap mengenai keadilan tetapi kita lupa mereka yang berkorban pun perlu menikmati keadilan yang mereka perjuangkan.

Amat terkejut sekali apabila ada yang berani bersumpah mengenai kenyataan MB Selangor yang berbunyi :

Kalau tidak kukuh kewangan jangan berjuang, minyak tak de, kereta rosak dan macam-macam lagi. Kalau kewangan tidak kukuh – kukuhkan dahulu lepas itu berjuang.

Amat berbeza sewaktu kita mula-mula terpanggil untuk reformasi. Anwar Ibrahim dalam laungannya menjemput semua rakyat Malaysia, tidak kira siapa – pemandu teksi dan bas, nelayan dan penoreh getah, petani dan buruh termasuk mereka dari golongan profesional untuk sama-sama memperjuangkan keadilan dan memperjuangkan hak rakyat. Laungan suara rakyat suara keramat adalah laungan.

Namun hari ini, MB Selangor didakwa mengatakan – orang miskin jangan berjuang. Tidak ke kurang ajar namanya! Namun ini bukan pertama kali Nora dengar MB Selangor ini dikritik. Banyak lagi suara lain seperti “ kalau nak duit pergi jual t-shirt dan topi keadilan dan mereka yang ada wang sahaja ada kuasa. Tuhan saja yang tahu mengenai kenyataan TS Khalid.

Nora tertanya-tanya juga kenapa program ini dianjurkan oleh Yahya Saari, pegawai Khas MB. Rupanya beliau diberitakan di pecat dan sekarang ini dalam tempoh notis. Ohh gitu, bila tersepit, menjerit cari mereka dari kalangan reformasi. Bila waktu MB buat kenyataan yang tidak berhemah, seperti tempat dalam kerajaan Negeri Selangor hanya diberi kepada orang lulusan tinggi-profesional dan sebagainya – tidak pula mereka bangkit menentang dan mungkin kerana waktu itu sedang dilamun berpeluk dan bercium dengan MB ini. Adat mungkin, bila tersepit cari reformis dan pejuang, bila sedang “honey moon” tidak pula ingat kat kita orang.

Sebenarnya Nora bukan kisah sangat dengan perebutan jawatan dan sebagainya. Yang Nora tahu ialah rakyat jangan di hina biar mereka kutip sampah tepi jalan atau duduk di lorong – lorong gelap. Lebih baik pergi membantu dari hanya tahu menghina.

Panjang sikit tulisan Nora kali ini....jangan tidur ya. Nora sebenarnya sedih bila lihat Parti Keadilan Rakyat bertukar jadi Parti Keadilan Korporat Rakyat. Yang penting bagi Nora ialah untuk turut membinasakan golongan hipokrit – senyap dan tidur semasa orang lain sedang berjuang dengan kezaliman dan ketidakadilan, tiba-tiba bila sinar sudah kelihatan mereka bangun sambil menguap menjerit dan mendabik dada – wah aku juga seorang pejuang. Nora tidak suka mereka juga mempergunakan mereka yang di gelar reformis hanya di tolak ke hulu ke hilir untuk agenda peribadi.

Satu lagi – ini perhimpunan bukan ada kena mengena dengan Nora. Nora mengulas dengan ikhlas. Bagi yang hanya melihat di sebelah pihak buka mata besar-besar. Nora tulis dan yang lain patut buat “home work” mereka sendiri. Betul atau tidak keadaan ini berlaku. Kalau betul, perbetulkan semula dan jangan sorokkan kerana ini akan menjadi virus sebagai mana viru yang ada dalam Umno.

Namun suara-suara bantahan sudah mula ada. MB Selangor yang hanya tengok kepada kronis, perlu disedarkan. Kalau perjuangan golongan reformis ini tidak ada, kemenangan yang ada hari ini mungkin merupakan satu ilusi dan angan-angan sahaja.

Kita bergerak sama, kita berjuang sama, kita berkorban sama-sama, kenapa orang yang hanya pegang duit sahaja yang terus memenuhi poket mereka. Mereka tahu ke apa yang berlaku sewaktu tahun-tahun 1998. Mereka ada ke bersama-sama kita. Mana mereka dahulu dan kenapa mereka ada sekarang membelakangi pejuang terdahulu.

Apa pun Nora akan terus menulis mengenai apa yang berlaku. Nora janji perjuangan Nora adalah untuk rakyat – mereka yang tertindas dan Nora tidak akan mengikuti nasihat yang mengatakan bahawa “kalau tidak ada kewangan kukuh jangan berjuang” kerana bagi Nora perjuangan itu adalah untuk mengukuhkan masa depan anak-anak dan generasi kita. Tetapi mereka yang mengambil kesempatan hasil dari apa yang kita perjuangkan – merupakan manusia hipokrit dan manusia seperti ini tidak layak mendapat hormat dari kita.

Salam..mengantuk pula – jam 3 pagi 23 Jun 2008.

Posted by norazimah mohamad nor at 11:59 AM

Kalau mahu tuduh saya sebagai seorang mencari peluang dan mendalang dari kemelut politik PKR, itu bicara politik yang tiada kesudahan dan terpulang kepada masing-masing. Saya memang yakin PKR bukan perjuangan yang boleh membawa keamanan dan kesejahteraan kepada alif, ba dan ta. Itu hak saya untuk memegang pendirian itu.

Sesuatu yang pasti adalah selepas PRU12, jurublog ini menerima hakikat rakyat sudah membuat pilihan. Jurublog sudah beritahu dan memberi ingatan kepada rakan-rakan di PKR agar tidak mengambil Khalid sebagai Menteri Besar. Malah lama sebelum PRU12, jurublog sudah beri amaran kepada Raja Petra bahawa saya lihat Khalid sebagai "bola tanggung" untuk di smash lipatmuat dengan mudah.

Mustahil mereka tidak menyedari ini. Din Merican sebagai seorang bekas pegawai tinggi dalam Sime Darby tidak boleh menafikan tidak terdengar desas desus tentang urusan Khalid Ibrahim di Guthrie. Dato Salehuddin Hashim yang berseteru dengan Khalid semasa dia memegang jawatan Pengurus Besar MIDF. Kumpulan Realmild yang pro-Anwar - Dato Khalid "Kelly" Ahmad, Mohd Nor Mutallib, dan Dato Nazri - pasti tahu Khalid begitu cemburu dan mengkritik mereka.

Jurublog sengaja menyebut nama-nama mereka untuk memperakui kata-kata Nora bahawa PKR kini dikuasai Korporat. Saya faham kenapa Nora persoal ini semua kerana jurublog ini yang pernah terbabit dengan kerja-kerja korporat boleh kata-kata rata-rata perangai rakus dan penipu orang-orang Korporat memualkan, tidak kira bangsa, agama, parti dan orangnya.

Namun dalam Nora meluahkan suara, jangan pula buat kesilapan dengan berhujah perjuangan itu ada habuan dipenghujungnya. Apa ideologi atau kepartian, baik UMNO atau PKR atau PAS, jalur pemikiran demikian tidak betul.

Berjuang itu pengorbanan dan pengakhirnya tidak boleh diharapkan habuan. Lumrah dunia dan kitaran sejarah revolusi sentiasa mengulangkan cerita sama yang mana mereka yang berjuang tidak mesti menikmati hasil pengorbanan.

Begitulah Dato dan Moyang saya berjuang bersama UMNO untuk merdeka tidak mendapat hasil apa-apa. Tapi cucu cicitnya dapat hasil perjuangan untuk belajar tinggi dan Insya Allah, mudah-mudahan jadi manusia berguna.

Baiklah kalau Nora sudah sedar Khalid bukan orang yang amanah. Dalam perkara sebegini, kita tidak boleh kira parti. Kalau kami sedangkan memperjuangkan penurunan Abdullah Badawi, anda seharusnya menuntut penurunan Khalid sebelum dia menghancurkan kita semua!

BSA Tahir Freed?

Malaysia Insider reported the release of BSA Tahir from ISA. For this blogger who has repeatedly wrote on this issue, this is certainly an encouraging development.

He has been imprisoned throughout Abdullah's premiership allegedly due to his involvement in producing nuclear centrifuge for Libya at SCORE, Scomi's subsidiary. It is believed that when the shipment was spotted near the Gulf area, it had put the nation at risk with the superpower.

His detention has been a controversy simply because of his linkages with Kamaluddin and Shah Hakim Zain. Not long after his detention, the release of the 'oil for food' scandal report in the US revealed Abdullah's involvement.

These two incidents is widely believed to have lead Abdullah to live "under ransom" and become increasingly obvious kow towing and compromising to the wishes and devious socio-political agenda of the foreign country, primarily Singapore and US.

The Malaysia Insider's news as below:

Sri Lankan nuclear middleman freed from ISA detention

KUALA LUMPUR, June 22 — Sri Lankan businessman B.S.A. Tahir, who helped Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan sell illicit nuclear technology to Iran, has been released this past week from detention under the Internal Security Act (ISA), sources told The Malaysian Insider.

Tahir, whose full name is Buhary Seyed Abu Tahir, was detained under the ISA in Kamunting, June 2004 for two years before another extension in 2006. He is a Malaysian permanent resident and is married to a Malaysian.

Police have put Tahir under restricted residence as a condition for his release.

Home Minister Datuk Syed Hamid Albar told Parliament on May 7 that Tahir was detained under the ISA after investigations showed his actions posed a threat to national security and the country's economy. "He had also made Malaysia as a place to produce centrifuge component units," he said when replying to a question from Datuk Mukhriz Mahathir.

Police said Tahir had obtained centrifuge parts for nuclear systems, from SCOPE, which was then part of Scomi Group Berhad controlled by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's son Kamaluddin. SCOPE had said the relevant parts were ordered legitimately for oil and gas work.

Gas centrifuges spin at supersonic speeds to separate fissile uranium-235 from nonfissile uranium isotopes. Police had cleared SCOPE of any involvment in the case and it was later sold off by SCOMI.

United States President George W. Bush had described Tahir as the "chief financial officer and money-launderer" of Khan's clandestine operations. Abdul Qadeer Khan had allegedly sold Iran nuclear centrifuge parts for US$3 million in cash in the mid-1990s. He is still under house arrest in Pakistan.

Police said said Tahir told them his involvement with the man dubbed the father of Pakistan's nuclear bomb began some time in 1994 or 1995 when Khan asked him to send two containers of used centrifuge parts from Pakistan to Iran.

"B.S.A. Tahir organised the transshipment of the two containers from Dubai to Iran using a merchant ship owned by a company in Iran," police said in a report, adding "payment for the two containers of centrifuge units, amounting to about US$3 million", was paid by an unnamed Iranian.

"The cash was brought in two briefcases and kept in an apartment that was used as a guesthouse by the Pakistani nuclear arms expert each time he visited Dubai," says the report, which identifies Khan as the arms expert.

Diplomats and arms experts have said they believe Pakistani nuclear scientist Khan, who has admitted leaking nuclear secrets to Iran, Libya and North Korea, offered Iran his centrifuge designs on the black market. Tahir also said Libya had received enriched uranium from Pakistan.

"Around 2001, the nuclear arms expert informed B.S.A. Tahir that a certain amount of UF6 (enriched uranium) was sent by air from Pakistan to Libya," the report says.

Experts say acquiring weapons-grade material is the biggest hurdle that countries seeking to make an atomic bomb must overcome.

Libya has since dropped its nuclear programme and become friends with the United States while North Korea is still in talks to dismantle its nuclear programme. Iran continues to move ahead to develop nuclear energy in a programme criticised by the US.

BSA Tahir's release is a limited release situation. The condition of his release is that of a restricted residence. Why?

He was detained but his partners namely; Kamaluddin Abdullah, the Prime Minister's son and Shah Hakim Zain, Tun Salleh Abas's son-in-law was not held under ISA.

The buzz in the business community is that the two of them could not plead ignorance for they are fully aware of it. Both had been hawking the proposal around town from the days of Tun Dr Mahathir's administration but could not get it started.

The Malaysian Government have clearly no interest to put the country in jeopardy by pursuing a nunclear program, except limited commercial use at Puspati.

In fact, it is widely believed that BSA Tahir arranged for the seed capital to establish Kaspadu as the vehicle for the three to takeover control of Scomi. The rest about Scomi is history plus the only one about being the only two in the world supplying mud for oil drilling.

At the beginning of the first Parliament session, Dato Mukhriz Mahathir posed a question to Dato Syed Hamid, Minister of Internal Security regarding the status of BSA Tahir. The answer was 'official' in nature.

Is there the likelihood that Dr Mahathir is aware and has kept in his drawers many secrets behind the incident? And, could the question posed by Mukhriz turned on the alarm bells that need be quitened with UMNO party election coming closed?

The accusation that Abdullah is under the whims and fancy of foreigner is growing acceptance at the party grassroot. This could likely be another of Abdullah's attempt to please himself with the UMNO grassroot and dispell the accusation.

But to those who understand, why is he on restricted residence? Could it be someone is afraid BSA Tahir will squell and jeopardise someone's party Presidency and Youth leadership?

Cadangan Hub Petroleum Oleh Ku Li Di Parlimen Pada 2006

Sejak kenaikan mendadak harga minyak, isu ini menjadi isu hangat. Di Majlis perjumpaan Cawangan-Cawangan UMNO dengan YBM Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah baru-baru ini di Taman Melawati dan Hotel De Palma pada hujong minggu lalu, isu ini tidak terlepas dibincangkan.

Jawapan Ku Li secara ringkas, menyatakan langkah yang dibuat oleh kerajaan tidak bijak kerana ia membawa masaalah inflasi dan tidak menyelesaikan masaalah.
Sepatutnya ia dilakukan secara berperingkat-peringkat dan suatu langkah jangkamasa pendik, sederhana dan panjang patut dirancang.

Kerajaan kelihatan tidak mempunyai satu pelan tindakan untuk menangani impak kenaikan minyak. Pemberian rebat dan bantuan hanya menambahkan birokrasi pentadbiran dan serupa “masuk poket kanan dan keluar poket kiri”.

Jika jangkaaan para analisa betul, harga minyak boleh naik ke tahap US$150 setong dalam masa terdekat dan boleh mencecah US$250 setong dalam jangkamasa sederahana ke panjang. Ini bukan sahaja menambahkan beban rakyat dan negara, tetapi menjadi diluar keupayaan rakyat dan negara. (Sila baca liputan jurublog Bigdog dalam Ku Li: Saya ada resipi selesai masalah kenaikan harga minyak.)

Sebenarnya Ku Li pernah membawa satu cadangan jangkamasa panjang yang merangkumi penyelesaian kepada masaalah ini. Semasa membahaskan belanjawan 2007 di Parlimen pada September 13, 2006, beliau mencadangkan pembinaan hub untuk industeri minyak dan gas yang mempunyai kepentingan strategik dan membawa manafaat ekonomi kepada rakyat dan negara.

Keperluan dan Cabaran

Di dalam membahaskan cadangannya itu, beliau memberitahu ahli Dewan bahwa Malaysia adalah negara kecil yang mana jumlah belanjawan yang secara relatif amat kecil sekitar USD40 billion. Sebagai negara perdagangan, negara terdedah kepada keadaan dunia semasa yang semasa itu sedang menghadapai masaalah permulaan kenaikan harga minyak dan keganasan antarabangsa.

Walaupun kita bernasib baik sebagai negara net exporter minyak dan gas dan nikmat dari kelapa sawit dan getah, kita menghadapai beberapa cabaran dalam membina sektor-sektor baru seperti otomobil dan bioteknologi yang mana kita bersaing dengan negara-negara jiran dan bukan bekerjasama.

Mengikut beliau, pembinaan hub tersebut adalah merupakan “produk istimewa ataupun niche product ataupun produk-produk yang saling melengkapi antara satu sama lain” dalam kerjasama Asean.

Malaysia mempunyai kelebihan sebagai “pengeluar dan pemilik rizab bahan ini yang terbesar di rantau ini.” Petronas pula adalah salah sebuah syarikat multinasional yang berjaya di dunia, yang mengatasi syarikat lain di rantau ini seperti Pertamina atau syarikat-syarikat dari kalangan pengeluaran minyak dunia lain termasuk negara-negara Arab.

Menurut beliau, usaha Petronas untuk mencari rizab minyak dan gas di luar negara adalah baik tetapi terdedah ke pelbagai risiko seperti risiko keselamatan dan peperangan. Semasa itu, Petronas baru saja dihalau keluar oleh negara Chad.

Cadangan Ku Li adalah supaya industri minyak dan gas dimajukan dengan lebih besar. Walaupun banyak pelaburan telah dibuat untuk memperingkatkan kegiatan upstream ataupun hiliran dalam membina keupayaan mengeluarkan pelbagai produk minyak dan gas kita di Terengganu, ia belum cukup untuk digelar hub. Malah cadangan hub petroleum di Iskandar Malaysia, Johor pun tidak meliputi ide yang cadangkan Ku Li.

Cadangan

Cadangan beliau secara ringkas adalah seperti ungkapan ucapan beliau di parlimen berikut:

“… Saya percaya melalui satu perancangan strategik nasional dalam menjadikan kita hub dan pemimpin industri ini kita dapat manfaatkan bukan sahaja kedudukan kita sebagai pengeluar minyak dan gas yang terbesar di rantau ini, tetapi juga kedudukan yang strategik kita di tengah-tengah laluan Selat Melaka dan Laut China Selatan. Hubungan baik kita dengan negara-negara Arab dan Islam lain sepatutnya dimanfaatkan bagi mendapat bekalan bahan mentah yang berterusan dari negara-negara pengeluar minyak dan gas dunia, manakala dalam konteks pertumbuhan ekonomi yang begitu pesat di China dan India, kitalah yang sepatutnya dilihat sebagai rakan paling strategik bagi mendapatkan bekalan yang berterusan bahan-bahan ini.

Saya percaya ramai pelabur dari negara itu, akan datang ke mari bagi memastikan bekalan yang mencukupi untuk keperluan mereka sendiri. Rancangan strategik ini bukan sahaja dalam konteks pembinaan industri yang berkaitan seperti dalam bidang penapisan, penstoran ataupun storage, peralatan, penyelidikan, pembinaan rangkaian penyaluran ASEAN ataupun ASEAN inter-connectivity, eksplorasi dan lain-lain aktiviti hiliran, tetapi yang lebih penting ialah menggembleng pasaran modal dunia dalam bidang ini, bermakna dengan izin, as the oil and gas hub in ASEAN, Malaysia must be the leader in all areas relating to the industry including oil and gas refining hub, oil and gas storage hub, oil and gas equipment hub, network and distribution infrastructure, exploration and production of both oil and gas, downstream petroleum product, and by-product the capital market where industry players seek financing, trading in futures for oil and gas, research and technical centre both for oil and gas and alternative energy sources.

Saya kira, tidak salah sekiranya kita bersifat lebih accommodative dalam bidang pasaran modal bagi industri ini bukan sahaja di Bursa Saham tetapi juga bagi pasaran bond dan pasaran derivative. Ia termasuk mengadakan dasar yang lebih liberal, memberi insentif yang lebih menarik dan meringankan syarat-syarat penyenaraian bagi syarikat-syarikat ini di Bursa Saham kita.”

Manafaat segera kepada rakyat adalah bekalan minyak negara tidak terputus, malah boleh menikmati minyak pada harga yang kompetitif.

Suatu perkara yang boleh dilihat dari cadangan Ku Li pada tahun 2006 ini adalah ia merupakan tindakan pantas yang memenuhi cabaran globalisasi dan pertumbuhan kuasa baru ekonomi ini, iaitu China dan India. Beliau melihat semasa itu negara jiran dalam keadaan terdesak apabila terpaksa membuka dua kasino terbesar dan lain-lain aktiviti menarik wang luar ke negara mereka. Malaysia perlu lebih mendesak dalam membina masa depan ekonominya.

Gesaan

Diakhir ucapannya, beliau menegur pucuk kepimpinan kerana terdapat kegelisahan dikalangan kapten-kepten industeri tentang pelaksanaan rancangan kita dan ekonomi yang terasa lembap. RMK9 tidak dilihat menarik dan projek tidak kelihatan bermula.

Negara dilihat kehilangan daya saing kepada negaranegara kos rendah seperti China, Vietnam dan India, tetapi juga kepada negara yang lebih maju seperti Singapura dan Taiwan. Kita masih belum memiliki kelebihan daya saing ataupun, dengan izin, competitive advantage untuk bertanding di peringkat jangka panjang dan sederhana.

Pentadbiran baru masih mengamalkan pemberian kontrak dan projek atas hubungan dengan mereka yang berkuasa bukannya atas prinsip merit dan keupayaan yang sebenar. Cemuhan terhadap ‘rent seekers’, yang diluahkan seketika dahulu semakin tidak kedengaran kerana dilihat melahirkan ‘rent seekers’ baru dalam bentuk baru.

Beliau mengakhiri ucapan dengan gesaan kepada kerajaan seperti di bawah:

“... lebih tegas, berani dan memiliki kehendak politik, iltizam ataupun political will yang lebih tinggi. Ganjaran hanya kepada mereka berupaya membuktikan kebolehannya. Sebaliknya bagi yang tidak, harus dihentikan. Tindakan bukan hanya kepada mereka di peringkat bawahan tetapi yang lebih penting terhadap mereka di peringkat tertinggi. Konsep seorang pemandu dan yang lainnya hanya penumpang tidak lagi sesuai di era kepimpinan kolektif seperti yang cuba kita tunjukkan sekarang.”

A Trader's Hunch on the Recent Petrol Oil Hike

The manner the recent petrol hike led this ex-trader blogger to believe that it is NOT merely about Government’s budgetary constraint and uncertainty in the world oil market.

That’s long taken into account.

Dr Mahathir commented about the need to reduce subsidy after the 1999 oil rise to US$30 per barrel. Analyst report predicting oil at US$100 per barrel has reached this ex trader’s as early as 2005!

Petronas is supposed to make further revelation next week. These days it is acting in it’s manner as a full-fledged corporation to maximise shareholder’s value. The new mantra of Government companies.

Taken all the rationale, excuses and spins, this ex-trader’s hunch or intuition is that the recent decision is actually the incompetence and complacency of Abdullah’s economic management.

This adminsitration procrastinate and flip flop in their decisions. By the time, Abdullah actually decided to do anything, his decision is usually too late and not in control. Personal political plans supercede the people, party and national interest.

And, underlying the recent hike is an insidious intention to IMF the economy.

Retrospective


By looking one go at The Star Online chart above, one could observe that crude oil prices is determined by the supply and demand factor and also global politico-economic event.

In a recent talk by YBM Tengku Razaleigh at Taman Melawati over the weekend, he revealed that oil was at one time controlled by the six and later seven sisters oil companies, which are owned by politicians. Although state oil companies have exert their presence, the geo-global political dimension remains.

One major shareholder of Haliburton is Vice President, Dick Cheney. For the sake of Haliburton, America went to war in Iraq and killed one million Iraqi. And, the present oil run-up is viewed as a US power game against China for the control of the Pacific Ocean.

Looking at it from a market perspective, the present state of pandemonioum seemed obvious. It is somewhat an amplified version of the situation in the years of 1976-80. The event that spark the rally was the 1979 Iranian revolution and the present major event preceeding the current rally is the year 2000 US invasion of Iraq.

Back in early 2005, this blogger obtained a Energy Economics Newsletter dated February 3rd, 2003 entitled “The Coming Energy Crisis”.

The paper presented a clear signal that the world was facing up a situation where World Excess Production Capacity (WEPC) was at a dangerous low level. By refering to the chart below, events that brought down WEPC in 1973, and 1979 led to sharp oil increases.


The oil rally that test the US$30 per barrel ceiling had it’s root in the lengthy occurance of a low WEPT from 1991-1998. The sharp rise in 1998-2000 brought about Dr Mahathir’s comment on petrol subsidy.

It was the declining capacity from 2000 to 2003 that sparked the present rally that busted through the US$30 and US$60 per barrel. At around 2005/06, this blogger received alarming prediction of oil to reach US$100 per barrel.

Will not such important literature be secured by Petronas? Is Petronas not aware of the situation and trend then? Aren’t our Govrnment policymaker not alerted of the situation?

Never Ending Rise?

Returning back to The Star Online chart, the early 1980 sharp rise is followed by a stable declining price all the way to 1996. Will it be after the oil rally that oil prices has touched the maximum and market will automatically come down?

Forget about the doomsday commentator saying oil price will reach US$250 per barrel. When the US$100 per barrel prediction came in, no one believed it. People are typically most bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom.

If a logarithm scale is used for the y-axis, it could reveal a toppish market. It is near the peak that one hear talk of excessive speculations. Could a rally drive prices more than 10 fold in one go from the US$20 to US$200 per barrel level?

Ponder what Idris Jala said regarding the absence of oil tankers at sea not moving and no long queue at petrol stations to show no shortages. He pointed out that analysts are ramping the market and presented the fair value of crude oil at US$40 per barrel.

Procrastination

Lets do a close up of the present rally.

The chart (on the right) revealed that the extraordinary run-up in oil prices occurs during Abdullah’s administration.

However, the geo-global situation and implication in early 2000 at just around the US invasion of Iraq was quite within the grasp of Dr Mahathir. He made the comment on oil subsidy and the decision for Petronas venture abroad.

It is likely that some study had been conducted and some energy plan put in place. Back then, a Malaysian ITM lecturer headed the Asean energy research centre based in Jakarta. Isn’t it around mid to late 1990s that Petronas went on its overseas exploration?

What I am driving at is that Abdullah-led Government procrastinated! And, his actions to the oil rise is sheer pathetic. If he had been a trader, he would have been considered a novice and put on leash from conducting trade independently.

To be fair to Abdullah, he did adjust the price of petrol bit by bit. From this Abdullah’s era fuel hike history chart below, he acted in accordance with the market with the 30 sen hike coming about at the US$60 per barrel in 2006. But was he consistent?


From early 2006 to middle 2007 where he did nothing when oil prices was busting new highs. The decision to move away from gradual adjustment to refrain from rising petrol prices was purely political and personal!

He was obviously steadfast to his plan of positioning the UMNO party election in 2008 after purging his political competitors through the General Election. Despite the poor sentiment against him personally, he insist on holding a snap election at a time his popularity is in it’s low ebb. He delayed the oil hike to win the General Election.

By the time, he made the oil hike recently, it was a hefty rise that has a devastating impact on the economy. Even how Dato Shahrir tries to persuade, it is impossible to believe that prices will not be affected.

Inflation is expected to be high and this will have the immediate of substantially reducing the people’s purchasing power. It will have an impact on the economy’s productivity and also income. A reduce income affect standard of living and development of the nation.

Now it is revealed that Abdullah did not fulfilled his promised programs made to soften the blow from the 2006's 30 sen oil hike.

Besides political consideration taking precedence over sound management of the economy, Abdullah's adminsitration was not proactive to spot a given trend when price busted through a key US$60 per barrel ceiling level and with fundamental backing.

By the time he reacted with a policy, it is a case of too late. In fact, this former trader's intuition says that his decision is wrongly timed. A novice trader’s mistake of acting in panic to buy and cut loss at market top!

Abdullah had no short-term, medium term and long term solution. In fact, he was giving recycled standard statements! It is equally odd that he provide rebates, and all sort of new programs but remain steadfast with the sharp oil hike. One you ruin the economy, counter measures is laggard. It should hve been for a more manageable smaller increase.

What about the foreign and smuggling eating up our subsidies and big consumption by industries and IPPS? Can't consumers be saved from it?

He should have learned from the wisdom in Dr Mahathir’s handling of the 1997/98 financial crisis. One should never make a major decision at any extreme state of emotion – happy or anger, pessimistic or coinfident, and fear or greed - for it will overwhelm sound judgement and screws up ones rational decision making ability.

Abdullah made a major decision when the market is in a state of pandemonium or panic. Under such state, the market is most bullish and is likely to in a state of over reaction.

Petronas

Tan Sri Hasan Merican is expected to repeat his position held since 2007 about rising exploration cost, depleting local crude oil reserve, and removal of petrol subsidy.

Recently, he spoke of crude oil reserve running out in 2010/12. But in 2000, he spoke of reserve running out in 2008! Bankruptcy in 2018

Blogger Kick de Fella displayed these charts below and there are pertinent issue here.


Government is enjoying a rise in income and the subsidies are comparatively peanuts. Whats the beef with Government? Or it is Hasan worrying about his job and he needs to be in sync with the current mindset of for purely financial return taking precedence over social programs?

IMF-ing The Economy

One observation that escape many eyes in the midst of the furor of oil hike was the decision made initially by Shahrir was for the total removal of subsidy in August.

To a free market economist, subsidy create inefficiencies in the economy and blah blah about competitveness, wastage and market determined mechanism to hold supreme. But subsidy can be described as the country sharing its wealth with the people. Isn’t market mechanism that result in durian being cheap in Muar during season there?

Can’t subsidy be seen from the perspective of incentive?


Add all the benefit to the economy and minus the claimed weakness of a subsidy system, will there not be pluses to the economy?

One big plus being control on the economic drivers.

The removal of oil subsidy has the same impact had we subscribed to the IMF policies in 1997/98. The economy will shrink as is expected to happen from the announced cut in public sector spending, private sector investment and consumer spending. Interest rate could be forced to increase to curb inflation. Subsequently, unemployment will rise and the improving living standard negated.

The poor economic condition will not encourage investment by the private sector and some will end up investing abroad. FDI is on the decline for years under the Abdullah's adminstration. Don’t tell us Iskandar brought in FDI when 50% of the pledges are not fulfilled.

Developed country seriously defend inflation to the hilt because of its impact on the living standard of it’s people. George Bush Senior used to say, “The American lifestyle is non negotiable.”

The policy change that he instituted was poorly timed and too shocking to be absorbed by the system. Abdullah has taken an irreversible major structural decision which has a devastating impact. Does he know it?