Uck Uck … Not Till Sleepy Actually Sing

It’s out now.

UMNO President cum de facto Malaysian Prime Minister, Dato Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi announced the postponements of UMNO General Assembly and Party Election (UMNO GA) to March 2009.

That’s quite a miss from this blog’s prediction of May 9th, 2009 before the Friday’s UMNO Supreme Council Meeting.

The prediction received was March, May and June 2009. It just proves again what Mathematicians have done that the central limit theorem only works with sufficiently large sample size. And, median as a method to derive the most likely predicted outcome has its weakness.

In a conversation with one Ketua Bahagian UMNO last night, new information surfaced. The range wasn’t too far out. The plan proposed by the Abdullah team initially was for the postponements of the Bahagian Meeting and UMNO GA to March and May, 2009, respectively.

In a four-eyed meeting between Abdullah and Deputy President cum Deputy Prime Minister, Najib, it was believed that a compromise was reached for the awkward arrangement for Bahagian Meeting to continue as scheduled and UMNO GA held 4 months after the last Bahagian Meeting.

The stranger statement emanating from the President’s press conference was that he will only announce his decision to contest the President’s post before Oct 9th Division Meeting. Now why would he want to be cryptic about it when he has been bandying the phrase, power transition around?

Words are he already had a session with his staff that he is not contesting. This not-a-gymnast flip flopper have given a pack-up instruction to his staff after the dismal 12th General Election but only to stick around more than six month. What will not make him flip flop again?

Not Discounted

Could Abdullah be seeking to stretch his luck for a year with the hope that twist of events on the real Prime Minister-in-waiting will prolong him? If he could, he will be much sought to assist corporation having problems with creditors in the hard time to come.

Or could he be building it up for person he first referred as the Prime Minster-in-waiting, i.e. Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim?

Anwar failed to form Government through crossover twice, on the promise date of September 16th and 24th, 2008. Although he has set a new deadline for October 1st, he downplayed the dateline game to claim he is seeking constitutional means.

Anwar has toned down his voice and maintained a relatively quiet week since the event altering MKT meeting last week.

Activist and recently turned politician, Tian Chua tried to supercede the boss to claim PKR people are talking to the PM’s people. But that brought about a strong reaction from PM and Anwar. Tian Chua was basically told publicly to shut up and let Anwar do the talking.

Anwar announced he has jointly with YB Lim Kit Siang (DAP) and YB Dato Haji Hadi Awang (PAS) wrote a letter to Agong to seek audience. The same “he has the number” bullshit line used again.

Even if he actually has some numbers for crossover, he does not have enough Malay MPs joining him. Without that, he can continue to spew quotes but he doesn’t stand any bloody chance to form a Government. As one BN Malay MP declared, he would rather be an opposition MP than be part of selling the country and the Malay away with Anwar.

To the sharp eyes, why is Anwar’s Oct 7th dateline close to Abdullah’s Oct 9th dateline? Abdullah can deny and do whatever swearing but his words are no more believed by many, especially with the latest episode.

Scenarios

Anger is mounting from the people and UMNO grassroots. Come October 9th and by the 12th, many believed tsunami III will happen. If he tries to challenge, he will be swept away swiftly.

The tricky bit is why the MKT, except for the voice of Tan Sri Annuar Musa, reached a consensus to this awkward compromise? Will this not make MKT as being in collusion with Abdullah? Will this be received well by the grassroots?

The general belief is that the Najib-Muhyiddin combination will sweep the nomination across the land, saving for Sarawak.

As of today, the stance of Muhyiddin is that he is comfortable to remain at Vice President. While Najib maintained he will leave it to the Bahagian Meeting to agree to the power transition. However, the ground is working at a furious pace to push for this duo’s nomination.

Thinking Aloud

What if Abdullah decide to contest and he managed to get through? This could likely happen. He could strong arm his way through threat, blackmail and bribe. The apparatchik could be the Anti Corruption Agency under the PM’s Department and the War Chest of stolen goods.

Will Najib remain loyal, as he was once quoted by mainstream media, not to challenge the boss? But it is the mainstream media. Just like they have been putting into his puth lately. What happen to the pact, if Najib reverse back to Deputy?

In the meanwhile, Tengku Razaleigh expressed a non-customary remark in his press conference on Saturday.

In Malaysiakini’s report, he described the Abdullah-Najib power transition as boys play. He pun Abdullah’s often said words to describe the situation as first world nation playing third world politics and its leaders resembling leaders of a banana republic.

Ku Li has an old bad habit of shooting bold statements that do backfire when he is overconfident. He should be wiser now but why is he confident? Will it be that his nomination numbers is beyond surpassing the quota? He has worked hard.

Will it be a three way race? Or will it be two way? Who will dropout? Where is Abdullah in all these scenarios?

As one cooperative Ketua Bahagian was saying, Abdullah always make a “wrong decision” when he need to make a decision. He cited the General Election date, Ahmad Ismail debacle, twice postponements of party election dates, and many more.

The party has yet to do a real party election throughout Abdullah’s reign of idiocrasy. Can he get through?

If he does, it will definitely hamper the recovery of UMNO/BN and the possibility for the demise of BN and UMNO. Abdullah’s successful defense of the UMNO Presidency could spur the crossover and it will mean handling over to Anwar. Why is the MKT lulled into believing it will work?

The saying is “The game isn’t over till the fat lady sing.” In this case, not till sleepy actually sing.