Perak Politics: Reality of Realpolitik

The Perak political situation is an interesting albeit amusing episode in our political history. Like Tun Dr Mahathir, many would be amused with the current development, particularly the inconsistency in the opposition rationale.

When the Opposition led by Anwar campaiged to get BN MPs to jump party, it was acceptable. But when it hit them on the face, it is no more acceptable. Only now they want to play the moral high ground? All the rationale the Opposition offered could be turned around by their own previous remarks.

This is realpolitik at work. The loser can go cry baby for all anyone should care. There is no dicky do in politics but bare knuckle against bare knuckle. Face fact. It is Anwar out-manouvred, out-witted and eating humble pie.

By merely compiling the words of the Opposition Leaders and personalities from the day Anwar launched his jump party psywar campaign on April 14th, 2008 Black 14 night at Kelab Sultan Sulaiman till his targeted September 16th, 2008 and the day YB Nasaruddin's made his "brief 11 day foray" into PKR, all their rhetorics could be dismissed easily.

To blame the episode to BN, remember that one that swing it against Pakatan Rakyat to BN are not BN ADUNs but Independents. Didn't PKR left their two ADUN out to dry? The so-called treachery is not done by BN ADUNs. Should it be convenient to lay any blame, perhaps blame it on "Ibrahim Ali". He, He, and He!

One can make all the legal arguments, but it is still interpretations. For instance, blogger Lawyer Kampung presented legal quotes to support the Sultan's authority as provided for and do we not remember he is our former Lord President. (update) Small Talk blog on the power to appoint comes with the power to dismiss. Kim Quek article found in blog Dandelion believed Sultan made a technical error to applied the Federal Constitutional to the State Constitutional practise.

The legal arguments boiled down to formalities and technicalities. Tuanku Sultan made wise decision beyond merely legal considerations. HRH may have considered the practical decision in line with Dr Mahathir's cynical question: Will Pakatan Rakyat Government (or former Government) convene the Dewan Undangan Negeri Perak? The continuity of Government must be foremost in his mind.

Hidden behind the justifications of law or administrative precedents, it is realpolitik in play. It is the reality of politics and political game. In another words, it is the stategy and tactical arts of politics over the science (rationale or justification) of politics.

When it comes to realpolitik, shouldn't we accord the grandmaster title to Anwar in the art of party hopping. He conducted the "Jump Party Orchestra" in 1994 Sabah that brought four Sabah PBS ADUN into UMNO for UMNO takeover.

Tengku Razaleigh who with Tun are the concern voices of this latest political development. Is it not essentially the same with Ku Li's involvement in the 1976 manouvre that lead to PAS downfall in Kelantan via Berjasa?

To the chagrin of the loser, all is fair in the world of realpolitik as long it is done within the ambit of the law and administrative precedent. There is no different in the case of Perak. Anwar has to face fact that he was out-witted by his former Naib Ketua Pemuda, Dato Seri Najib in his own game.

He is left with only one option that is to directly or indirectly sue the Sultan. Good luck because he'll never win!

Thus, I wish to reproduce a February 4th, 2009 Bernama report. At the end of the posting, there is a short cynical realpolitik reply to the report's comment on Indian absence in the new state Government.

Was PR Out-manoeuvred In Its Own Game?

KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 4 (Bernama) -- "They have hit a wall. They are running out of options," remarked Gerakan deputy president Datuk Chang Ko Youn when describing Pakatan Rakyat's (PR) move to announce the dissolution of the Perak state assembly prior to obtaining royal consent.

He said the desperate move was probably prompted by rumours that more than two of its state assemblymen had defected to Barisan Nasional (BN).

Two hours later Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak made the much awaited announcement, declaring that the BN had the numbers to form the new state government after three state assemblymen became independent and pledged their support for Perak BN.

The palace has yet to announce whether the head of state had given his consent to the Menteri Besar's request to dissolve the state assembly, however, political observers and pundits believe that PR is on weak ground for dissolution of the state assembly.

Political analysts believe that the PR state government had become shaky after Bota assemblyman Datuk Nasarudin Hashim joined the Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) and this had prompted BN to win over some of the state assemblymen from PR.

Nasaruddin, initially with Umno, 10 days ago announced that he had left BN to join the PR with PKR de facto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim welcoming him with open arms and applause from the opposition pact.

One senior opposition politician believed that Nasarudin was holding the key to the collapse of the PR government in Perak when he decided to make a U-turn back to Umno today.

"We have 29 seats even with the defections... so there is no reason for the BN to offer to form the government," the Opposition leader initially said.

But when told that Nasarudin had made an about turn and returned to the BN fold, he said:" Aiyoo, ya ka...I think we got played out this time."

"That means we have 28 and they (BN) got 32 (with the inclusion of the four who defected). I will send a written statement if that is the case," he said, politely severing the telephone call.

However, some observers believed that Nasarudin's about turn was not the key issue but the collapse was more attributed to the defection of the other three assembly members.

They believed that the bigger issue would be how BN was going to form a state government that truly reflected the power-sharing of its component parties since some will not be represented.

"Politically it is a good plan. But we have to look at the bigger picture. There is not even a single Indian representative in the in-coming BN government. It seems like it is a big family but without positions," he said pointing out the fact that all four MIC candidates who were given seats in the 2008 general election under the BN banner, had lost their respective seats.

"Under the PR, Indians had a state legislative Speaker and an executive councillor (Exco). But now Indians have lost it all. The BN must do something to compensate this. At least among the Chinese, there is one elected representative from MCA and he can fill up the Chinese Exco quota but the same cannot be said for the Indians," he said.

Taking this into account, speculation is rife that there would be more defections from the PR to the BN and this time it would involve some Indian state assemblymen.

Another issue is who will BN appoint as the Menteri Besar as the person must not only be "clean but also seen to be clean" to boost its image in this state.

There has been talk that Datuk Zambry Abdul Kadir, the Pangkor state assemblyman and Bukit Chandan state assemblyman Datuk Wan Mohd Khairil Wan Ahmad are being considered for the post.

Note: Another suggested reading is a posting by blogger Dato Ariff here.

Comment: No Indian? Don't they have Zambry?

Seriously, let it be. Some may question this logic. However, lets look at the political reality and practices or realpolitik.

It is not about denying Indians representation. They made their representation wholesale through Pakatan Rakyat. They put all their bet in one horse but it didn't payoff. THey have to live with it.

But is the real issue about some Indians wanting to be involved in the new Government? There are many ways but it has to be within the ambit of law and practices. It is not going to be in the manner they wished to be like before.

Barisan Nasional which coincidently offers and promises in their election campaign was not able to sway the Indian voters rationale to vote for MIC, UMNO and BN. Perhaps they have come to expect that even if they voted opposition, they will still received those offer and promises.

My view is Indian have to live with their decision. Unless they felt the deprivation of "direct representation", only could they realised to stop being emotional and be wise and smart to hedge their votes.

For a quick fix, I would suggest PKR Indian ADUNs jump over to MIC. Makhal Sakti? He, he, he!

Update: 9:00 pm