A snippet of observation from the blog Outsyed the Box:Some observers say that in the Peninsula, there are about 90 to 100 Parliamentary constituencies which have a mixed voter profile similar to Bukit Gantang or Bukit Selambau.
In these constituencies, the Malay vote is always a slight majority only and not an overwhelming majority. Considering that the Malay vote is now about evenly split between Pas and UMNO, it is quite obvious that the next General Elections are going to be decided in these mixed constituencies.
To digress a little, in a recent forum Dr Chandra Muzaffar pointed out historical voting behaviour in Malaysia. The Barisan Nasional has never been as successful in overwhelmingly Malay or overwhelmingly Chinese constituencies. For example Pas has often defeated UMNO in heavily Malay constituencies in Kelantan, Terengganu and other places. Even until today, UMNO victory in Malay dominant Terengganu is by razor thin majorities.
And likewise the DAP has always won big in predominantly Chinese constituencies. The most glaring example is Mr Lim Kit Siang’s ‘strategic retreat’ to Ipoh Timur in 2008, where the constituency is about 80% Chinese.
Tracking Mr Lim’s electoral performance over the past 40 years is like reading a book by itself. Mr Lim has always stood in overwhelmingly Chinese constituencies, both Parliament and State. This is from his website : Bandar Melaka (1969 - 1974); Kota Melaka (1974 - 1978); Petaling Jaya (1978 -1982); Kota Melaka (1982 - 1986); Tanjong – Penang (1986 - 1999); Ipoh Timur (since 2004).
As State Assemblyman he represented Kubu, Melaka (1974 - 1982); Kampong Kolam, Penang (1986 - 1990); and Padang Kota, Penang (1990 -1995).
Despite 40 years of ‘Malaysian Malaysia-ing’ Mr Lim has never felt comfortable enough to test his popularity in constituencies which are more truly “Malaysian Malaysia” ie about 50%-60% Malay, 20%-30% Chinese and say 10%-20% Indian.
Yet, until 2008, these are the type of Constituencies which have been the BN’s stronghold. Until recently, the BN has always derived its greatest success from mixed racial constituencies like Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau.
This is evidence enough that the BN derives its support from a vast majority of middle of the road Malaysians who are able to recognize and identify with the BN’s multi racial philosophy, ie to share power and coexist with our multi racial neighbours.
No doubt this philosophy has been tarnished to perhaps a very large extent by the presence of an incompetent leader for the past six years as well as his incompetent Ministers of equally dubious and low moral persuasions. The BN needs to address this situation urgently.
Wonder how many realised this. How will it be for 2013's General Election?
Berdasar kapada tuntutan tuntutan yang lantang daripada sahabat dalam BN semenjak penukaran Presenden pati componen terbesar selaps UMNO, teman rasekalau ade sahabat macam ini kita tak perku musuh.
ReplyDeleteHabis gunting di jual.
Habis selimut di jual.
PRU 13 teman rase sahabat sahabt ini akan minta lagi nak jadi TPM 2 ,3, 4, dll saperti mansuhkan saja 30 % .
LKS tak perlu bimbang sebab orang perak akan sokong dia kerana kerajaan ras nya telah di jatuhkan.
LGE tak perlu bimbang sbb semenjak 1969, PP tidak pernah kerajaan berteraskan UMNO.
changkat lobak.
arjuna waspada.
Voice,
ReplyDeleteBN should stop treating Malay Voters as Peasants who are easy to please and Chinese voters as as gentlemen who are difficult to please.
Y.B Hisham Gemuk
Melayu masih tidak sedar En Din. Parti Melayu masih berbalah di antara satu sama lain. Orang Melayu kalau tidak mahu berubah akan menjadi menang sorak kampung tergadai. Orang Melayu akan mengemis di negara sendiri. Anak kecil main api ... anak kecil main api ...
ReplyDeletecucu tok selampit
ReplyDeleteJangan khatir, orang melayu tak akan mengemis di negeri sendiri. Orang melayu majoritinya akan bersatu di bawah PKR dan PAS di bawah Pakatan Rakyat di masa hadapan. Penyokong tegar UMNO dan BN,profilnya sudah berubah. Pengundi muda cenderung tidak menyokong UMNO dan BN. Lagipun, tiada ynag kekal selama lamanya di alam fana. Dulu..mungkin, kini..mungkin. Tapi selama lamanya tidak mungkin. Itu lumrah alam.
Sri Hartamas
saya sependapat dengan YB Hisham gemuk kat atas tu ...UMNO memang kene mengubah strategi ... la ni Melayu sendiri dipinggirkan .. kalau katakan kepentingan Melayu Islam terjaga dengan sempurna insyallah kuasa melayu yg 65% akan memusatkan sokongan pada UMNO dan BN ... untuk hal org cina dan india biar wakil mereka yg uruskan tak usah UMNO nak sibuk2
ReplyDeleteapa maksud 1 malaysia ,salah satu maksudnya kita kena bertindak sebagai orang malaysia,bukan lagi untuk melayu,cina atau india tampa mengusik perlembaggan yang telah termaktub,dulu umno melayu ,mca cina,mic india, sudah, ini semua dah tak boleh pakai lagi,sekarang calon yang hendak di tonjol mesti dilihat boleh mewakil semua bangsa,dari mana kita nak cari calon,apa panyah...lihat pada latar berlakang persekolah ,dari darjah satu sampai keperinkat tinggi,adakah berada disekolah multi racial.lepas tu tengok kepada perkerjaan atau jika dia orang bisness,ada campor bangsa lain,kalau tinggal dikawasan multi racial lagi baik,kerana dengan ada kelebehan ini,budaya multi racial sudah ada dalam diri mereka,maka inilah calon yang perlu diketengahkan 3 in i
ReplyDelete