What to expect this week?

It was quite an eventful week for the last week of Syawal.

There was 1MDB's Arul Kanda giving an interview on Thursday August 13th, after the sales of another plot of TRX land to Affin. His first TV interview was to give assurance that it's over-leveraged situation could be addressed within 6 months [Transcript here and here. Video here].

There was a bit of attempt to revive 1MDB as an issue but public attention is very much on the RM2.6 billion donation, and conspiracy to topple government.

Raja Petra Kamaruddin, who seemed to be having a good run these days, revealed some details of the conspiracy. He hinted of something big about to happen next week.

One guess could be MACC's plan to meet PM in their investigation of SRC as mentioned their press release [read TMI here]. This would attract attention since three key people in the SRC investigation have fled.

Another would be the case of Xavier Justo. There have not been much development and stories lately.

1MDB

1MDB have been overshadowed by other events. Tun Dr Mahathir's latest posting tried to revive previously raised questions but still no answer on the "missing" RM42 billion. Arul replied by saying it is recycled questions to answers given in 48 press releases.

Tony Pua stepped up to the plate and was given the same reply. He replied to say the press releases have not fully answered the issues. Arul slam Tony Pua for conveniently forgetting a June 10 answer to the miscommunication on the issue of fund unit redemption. 

He seem to ignore the fact 1MDB is under investigations and the most investigated organisations. Thus, it is not for Arul to make public comment. Tony Pua is trying to be "judge, jury and executioner", wrote a letter to Rakyat Post [read here].

If that is not enough politicking, Lim Guan Eng blamed the decline in ringgit to 1MDB. So is Guan Eng another instant expert on currency?

One reason confidence for 1MDB could not get restored yet was the delay in the appointment of new PAC members and disbandment of the Special Task.

It had to wait for the next session of Parliament on October 19. Only parliament could endorse the selection of a new Parlimentary Select Committee (PSC), which is responsible to choose members of various commitees including the PAC.

The reason the new AG announced disbanding the Special Task was that it is not appropriate for prosecutor to lead any investigation. Each enforcement agencies operate under their respective law and will continue investigation. These agencies have cooperate and work together before [read TRP here].

Zeti's PC

The big story last week must be the press conference by Bank Negara Governor, Tan Sri Zeti Akhtar Aziz.

Zeti said there had been a red flag on 1MDB for few years and Bank Negara had done their probe and submitted report and recommended to AG for "enforcement action" [read TMI here].

Some yoko was still asking whether it was submitted to PM. 

As happened to MACC, she said seven Bank Negara staff were questioned by police with regard to 1MDB leak [read TMI here].

Off late, Zeti had been smeared by some anonymous blog [read The Recounter here]. The intention looks to pressure her into resignation. She responded to say she will finish her controversially long five year extention and threaten to sue the slanderer. [Read FMT here] 
 
Asked about the US$700 million being transfered into Dato Najib's personal account, she said she could not comment on individual account [read The Star here]. Malaysiakini report twisted her words to emphasise she could be caught.

RM2.6 billion

The public attention is now focused on the RM2.6 billion transfer into PM's account in Ambank.

Since revealed and confirmed by MACC as political donation from Arab donors and not linked to 1MDB, one name regularly mentioned but not confirmed yet as donor was Prince Alwaleed Tallal.   

Raja Petra was one of the first to claim the transfered money was a political donation. In one of his recent posting, Was the RM2.6 billion part of war against terror?, he believed the money is more than just funding the last general election.

It is also believed that the money was also to assist troubled Muslim communities around the world. This was explained in one UMNO Divisional meeting in Pahang.

Tan Sri Muhyiddin enquired on the balance of the RM2.6 billion. Before any answer was given, Sarawak Report responded to reveal that out of US$681 million credited into Najib's account, US$650 million was returned to the original sender.

It should tally with the possibility that it is not meant for only political funding. SR spin to question why would donation meant for UMNO be returned. In the first place, didn't they accused it was 1MDB money from day one?

Secretary General, Tengku Dato Adnan Mansor was reported that he and UMNO Treasurer are aware of the RM2.6 billion donation.

It is understood that the account was a trust account under the name of Dato Najib. The question he has to ponder is whether to reveal the beneficiary and donor after MACC cleared it is not diverted 1MDB money?

Sentiment

Usual opposition game

The answers given to issues are generally sensible but trust deficit and late reply made it unconvincing to the public and UMNO grassroot. Najib's gameplan to let enforcement agencies ascertain his innocence may have backfired after police raided MACC and Bank Negara.

In a Twitter survey done by Politweet, Twitter users surveyed did not believe the donation explanation and still insist it came from 1MDB [read MMO here].

Even questions posed to Dato Abdul Rahman Dahlan in a mainstream paper interview [read The Star here] had a a tone of distrust.   

IGP denied acting on any directive to investigate MACC. Last week, he also denied any interference with investigation and targeting any institution, particularly the MACC. He gave assurance investigation into the leakage of investigation papers will be put on hold.

Pressure is coming from opposition and left wing NGO as they called for Najib's resignation. Bersih 4.0 is organised aand will be the build-up to GE14.

As mentioned in last week's posting, the argument to ask for opposition to also reveal does not seem to stop DAP from politicising the issue. Tony Pua claimed foreign funding is detrimental to democrasy. These articles here and here should be useful reminders to DAP's past.

Earlier, DAP denied and claimed they raised money through public donation.

Conspiracy?   

Khairy defended Najib to say receiving political donation is not a crime. The same argument many left-wing NGO and PKR used before when exposed of their foreign funding.

However Khairy changed his tone and express disapproval to the MACC raid. He said he is not afraid of being sacked from the cabinet.

That set the tone for the UMNO Youth divisional meetings. Yesterday UMNO Youth Tampin call for Najib to withdraw in order to clean up party image.    

Muhyiddin's voice on 1MDB have become stronger in his speeches in Semporna and Kemaman [read TMI here and here, and The Star here].

RPK seemed to defend the police raid on MACC and Bank Negara with his conspiracy theory.

In his posting, "Muhyiddin was not sacked because of 1MDB", RPK alleged that Muhyiddin has a role in plotting to oust Najib. Extract of the allegation below:

Muhyiddin Yassin, too, made a move to oust Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak. He met Azmin Ali and Lim Guan Eng and plotted to pass a vote of no confidence against Najib.

The only problem was Hadi would not join the conspiracy so they could not get enough votes. They need all the votes from Pakatan Rakyat and another 30-40 from Barisan Nasional, which Muhyiddin would deliver. Without the PAS votes they would be dead in the water.

And that was why Najib had to remove Muhyiddin. It had nothing to do with 1MDB. It was because of the vote of no confidence that Muhyiddin was planning. The 1MDB issue was going to be the excuse for the vote of no confidence.

Problem with vote of no confidence Plan A is that Muhyiddin has no history of working or collaborating with opposition.  Azmin Ali and Guan Eng have thus far denied meeting him.

According to RPK, Plan A failed because of PAS strained relation with DAP. Subsequently, he predicted plan B in "Najib's last day as PM was supposed to be July 29th", below:

Plan B was supposed to have been executed on Wednesday, 29 July 2015, during the Cabinet meeting.

On that day, Muhyiddin would inform Najib that he has to resign with immediate affect (which was why the rumours were flying around that time that Najib was resigning). The Attorney General would be waiting outside with the media representatives and Najib would be told if he refuses to resign then the AG would hold a press conference and read out the charges against him.

Najib would then immediately face arrest and no bail would be granted due to flight risk. Once Najib was under arrest he would be slapped with more charges to keep him busy in court for the next decade so that even if he beats all those charges there was no way he could come back as Prime Minister.

Plan B failed and in his posting, "Is plan C still on or do we move to plan X", he described a Plan C similar to rumours that reached this blogger's ear: 

Plan C is for the MACC to arrest Najib under Section 23 of the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission Act, which is punishable under Section 24 of the same Act and, upon conviction, carries the same jail term as Section 124 of the Penal Code, which is 20 years.

But then, just like in the case of Plans A and B, Najib pre-empted this move and removed certain key MACC officers and transferred them to the Prime Minister’s Department.

And. came Plan D as written in "Najib appears to have more than 9 lives" is below:

Three of the masterminds of the Gerakan Anti-Najib or GAN — Rafizi Ramli, Johari Abdul and Ariff Sabri Abdul Aziz — arranged for a certain Indian lawyer who used to be a legal adviser of Umno to prepare 120 Statutory Declarations.

About 85 of these SDs were meant for the Pakatan Rakyat Members of Parliament and the other 35 for the Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament. And these 120 Members of Parliament from both sides of the political divide would sign these SDs to prove to His Majesty the Agong that Najib has lost his majority support in Parliament.

Though appealing, Plan D is bizarre as it is unlikely for royalty to interfere in common rakyat politics.

Nevertheless, Deputy Prime Minister Dato Ahmad Zahid played up RPK's story on attempts by UMNO and BN leaders to oust government. The intention may have been to create the buzz at the UMNO Divisional meetings.

His tease brought out denial from Muhyiddin as he said it would be stupid of him to wreck a government he helped built. Zahid has since denied Muhyiddin as the person. He hinted the conspirator will be meeting PM to own up yesterday.  

Whether there was a meeting or not, that leaves only Tengku Razaleigh. He has been described by Dato Abdul Kadir Jasin as the front runner.

Although he admitted meeting Tun Mahathir, Ku Li denied involvement in attempt to topple the Najib. He claimed himself as a Najib man.

Ku Li explained it need military involvement to topple a government. The constitutional way to topple a government must be via a vote of no confidence in Parliament. Will that mean the October Parliament session will be more about a vote of no confidence than the new PAC?

Unexpected?   

Reuters analysis here viewed that any attempt to bring government down will have to be from within UMNO. Najib is expected to ride out the storm and should survive.

However, there is a widely held belief that BN could not survive the next general election. It is indicative of the public sentiment against Najib but interestingly, the question of replacement could not be answered convincingly.

It means Najib may still have a fighting chances but PMO, Najib's communication team and political machinery have a tall order to step up and be fast thinking. UMNO's cyber operation failed, says a opposition friendly critic on TMI here.

Critics blamed former opposition operators in UMNO for the failure as one claimed PM would not have used a personal account for the political donation. Generally the cyber operation need a General which is conversant and have well thought out cyber strategy respected by the troops.

There it is quite still much to be revealed to the public. Any new development and delayed released of certain information must be made to swing public sentiment.

Xavier Justo is expected to be charged in the Thai court soon. Usually court proceeding would reveal some interesting details. Maybe it is as interesting as the reported meeting at Fullerton Hotel, Singapore. 

While the priority now would be to tighten the UMNO ship, it is a predictable move and they will be those attempting to foil the move. With 1MDB and RM2.6 billion political donation are homerun issues for opposition and internal critics, UMNO must buck up.

There is no time to waste for both UMNO and certain opposition parties or as RPK forecasted here, Selangor will come under the control of DAP.