Is "end is near" for Mahathir man, Vincent?

 

Extract from "The Impending Fall of Vincent Tan":

Sources claimed Vincent's allegation against Spanco is libelous and does not represent the true picture of his contract. 

Without revealing the details yet, the terms of the concession awarded to Vincent from Mahathir is not the same with the original Spanco contract. Vincent's does not include vehicle maintainance in the contract.   

An intelligent guess would be that Spanco did not take kindly to the allegation by Vincent. The reason their lawyer Edmond Bon disagree with the term of withdrawal. Is a counter lawsuit in the making? 

Robert Tan who was questioned by MACC for Spanco have every reason to be angry for the ordeal the he had to go through. 

Can Thaksin's "return" revive Thai economic crisis?

Star Online published the following report from Reuters:

Thai economy is nearly in crisis: Caretaker finance minister

Thailand

Wednesday, 21 Aug 2024 12:14 PM MYT

BANGKOK: Thailand's economy is nearly in crisis due to declining exports and uncompetitive manufacturing, the country's caretaker finance minister said on Wednesday (Aug 21).

Exports accounts for 70% of the economy but the manufacturing sector can't meet market demand, Pichai Chunhavajira told a business seminar.

"We can't compete. We can't adapt in time," he said.

Malaysia’s GDP grows 5.9% in Q2 2024

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s economy grew 5.9% in the second quarter of this year (Q2 2024) thanks to stronger household spending amid positive labour market conditions and larger policy support.

Bank Negara Malaysia also attributed the strong growth rate to a pick-up in exports and tourist arrivals, as well as robust expansion in investment activities.

The figure is slightly above the statistics department’s advance estimate of 5.8% released earlier this week.

At a press conference here, BNM governor Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour said headline inflation is projected to average between 2% and 3.5% this year.

He said household spending remains the anchor of Malaysia’s growth, with consumer spending expected to improve going forward.

Read on in Thick as a Brick HERE

Stock meltdown bring attention to Malaysia

 And, so much for market getting more pessimistic on the possibility of  recession after last week's public relation exercise by Wall Street to claim it is not as bad. In Star Online today, "Market pricing in higher recession odds", the sub-heading reads "Goldman, JP Morgan say chances of downturn still remain".

Not too far off from this blogger's expectectation of the post- "crash" market condition  here. There is also the contrarian view such as this Wells Fargo strategist's prediction of 1995 re-run here.

However, the "crash" seemed to be a blessing in disguise. Despite the fear of war in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine war could erupt with a Ukraine attempt to encroach into Russian controlled area, Malaysia is on the spotlight.

Its getting re-rating from none other than Goldman Sachs, the Investment Bank in a legal dispute with Malaysia in relation to 1MDB.  

Bloomberg reported:

(Aug 9): This week’s upheaval in global equities is prompting investors in Asian stocks to turn their attention to markets where their ownership has been falling in recent years, with China and Malaysia fitting the bill.

Impact of Trump's return on Malaysia

The elephant in the room is the possibility of Donald Trump returning to White House. He anticipate Trump to renew trade war against China and there will be a massive wave of relocation that will benefit Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam.  

However, there is a contrarian view by the ANZ banking group. Malaysia is said to be the most vulnerable. Trump's second term is expected to be more isolationist, inward in foreign policy, and trade policy against China will be more prohibitive. 

Quoting from Edge report below:

Justification for M'sia-Thai cooperation for Kra Landbridge

Of late, the Panama Canal is running dry and water is at critically low level for the waterway to operate. The lack of rain due to the El Nino phenomenon has resulted in the second driest season in the canal's 110 year history. [read BBC here]. 

According to IMF blog, Panama Canal saw trade fell by 32% in the early part of 2024. Larger still is Suez Canal, by 50%. Since late December 2023, Suez Canal and Red Sea are under threat. Houthi rebels from Yemen attacked ships in response Israel's bombardment of Gaza and so-called retaliation to Hamas rocket attacks. 

Ships were diverted through the Cape of Good Hope and it added 6,000 nautical miles to journey. Situation may worsen with Israel seemed destined to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon and the possible confrontation with Iran. 

If that is not problematic enough for international trade, the Straits of Melaka recently faced a massive congestion.  

Is Black Monday 2024 over?

Come August till October, it is usually the time of the year crashes were to happen. ....

By the look of it, the global financial market is entering the witching period of the year. There was a sell-off on Wall Street last week arising from a poor job data which indicate recession is coming in.  

Extract from The Guardian last Friday, below:

The US labor market cooled significantly last month as unemployment unexpectedly rose, sparking fears of a slowdown across the world’s largest economy.

American employers added 114,000 jobs in July – short of the 180,000 additions expected by economists, and a marked decrease from the 179,000 added in June.

The headline unemployment increased to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021, up from 4.1% the previous month.

Wall Street fell sharply following the official release. The S&P 500 declined 1.8% to a two-month low, as the technology-focused Nasdaq fell 2.4% and entered “correction” territory, having retreated 10% from the record high it scaled last month.

Reforming the audit system

Its about her (Wan Suraya) tasking "to transform and restructure the auditing system and strengthen the country's financial management".

In last year's report for 2022, she commented that there was an improvement in financial position from 2021 despite increasing national debt and liabilities and recommended strengthening public financial discipline. 

But she highlighted the glaring wastage of RM122 billion recurring annually. The public sector had serious issue. Had not for the wastage, the almost RM80 billion annual subsidy could still be provided to the rakyat. 

Thus, don't blame the ruling party - past and present.