Friday, April 05, 2013
Last Saturday, we were in Pulai, Johor observing the BN politcal rally at a low cost housing area in our old neighbourhood of Kempas.
Tun Dr Mahathir was speaking and by now many would have read about his speech asking the fixed deposit voters of Johor to bury Lim Kit Siang, Nik Aziz and Anwar Ibrahim.
With Gelang Patah's MCA Jason Teoh a hot favourite, such boastful claim maybe possible. [Read some sample of the report from GAP here and Bigdog here]
Although much attention is given to DAP's entry into Johor as Revolusi Cina [Read Rocky Bru here] and PKR offering celebrated names for Johor,we were alerted that it is mere DAP deviation to divert attention from problems developing in Penang and potential of losing in Selangor.
There is also a possibility it is to divert attention from a silent takeover of Negeri Sembilan.
Both Kit Siang and Chua Jui Meng misjudge the 4,000 increase in Singapore working Chinese voters as favouring opposition.
Kit Siang ignored the refusal of some Chinese shopkeeper to shake his hands during his walkabout. He may not be aware that bookie odds are for him to lose.
And Fung Shui masters are advising that Anwar spells for B-A-D.
Dr Mahathir is only playing on the peripheral of Gelang Patah before making the real push into Gelang Patah to bury his long time foe.
Nevertheless, Pulai is not actually DAP-free and it remain a BN strong area because Kempas is a strong Malay area. If Nurjazlan continues with his liberal ways, he could lose his seat.
However, DAP is not overzealous and zeroed in only on the Pengkalan Renting state seat of Pulai. One local UMNO source said there is an increase of 18,000 or perhaps more logical number to be 8,000 new Chinese voters there.
This Sunday Dr Mahathir will be in Muar, another battleground of DAP. They are hoping to defend the Bentayan state and Bakri parliamentary seats and win Muar parliamentary seat.
From our sources, DAP may end up losing Bakri and incumbent Dato Razali Ibrahim could successfully defend Muar.
Like we said earlier, DAP may want to win something like 10 Parliamentary seats in Johor but they are likely to get away with 3 only.
So these could be just mere decoy.
Contrary to popular opinion that Penang is DAP's fixed deposit, recently it is not as rock solid as many would have thought it to be.
Not because the Malay seats have swinged for UMNO. Sixteen seat is not safe yet for BN to win Penang. Get real ... Penang is a Chinese majority state. Although Malay population is almost as much as Chinese, the bulk are not registered voters of Penang.
Lim Guan Eng is facing many issues that has affected his credibility off late. The Chinese for Chinese sentiment may not work this time. The professional and middle class his over politicised ways. As for his popularity with the lower economic class, there is a bomb waiting to explode.
Guan Eng has repeatedly been lying whenever he is caught in controversial issues. The tallies are too much to ignore.
There has been too many massive high end development projects that have earned DAP the nicname Developer Association of Penang. DAP has no answer but mere lies on the issue of low cost housing.
DAP is now facing issues that is no more only Malay and Indian issue. Even some Chinese are viewing his blatant racist policy of To'kong Lim against Malays and Indian that is disturbing inter-community harmony.
The public outcry against underground tunnel is coming from all walk of life despite attempt by DAP to claim that the deal for only 150 acres land is better when compared to the bigger land compensation for North-South Expressway.
Actually, it is not so much the issue of the tunnel affecting the ports or livelihood of fishermen. Technically, it is not a real issue. In fact, the tunnel has some strategic benefit.
Off course there is the legitimate question of why a tunnel when the second bridge is already built?
Better to talk after general election. Now it is all politics.
The tunnel is getting opposition from the local and interest groups, which usually get opposition support to go against any government development plan.
Why would Penang be investing when the state needs investment from abroad?
It only confirm Guan Eng failed to attract FDI and have been claiming credit from effort of federal government's MITI.
If that is not enough, Guan Eng lost face to BN state chief, Teng Chang Yeow, when he dare not take up the challenge to run in a mixed race constituency.
Guan Eng was only willing to take him on for the 78% Chinese constituency of Bukit Bendera. It only shows the hypocrasy of DAP's multiracial claim.
It can go anywhere.
The issues tilt for BN with Malay votes looking solid to not give PAS and PKR.
Selangor is about urban versus rural voters and Chinese majority urban versus Malay majority rural voters.
Still ... it can go either way and based on racial sentiment, it theoretically favours Pakatan. If Pakatan Rakyat can win some rural and Malay seats and BN can't win over Pakatan seats, it will remain with Pakatan.
The issues on Selangor need to get the right angle and light to favour BN. Seriously the state is badly administered and the claim of increase in reserve with a RM2.6 billion surplus is a big lie.
How could they achieve such with repeated years of budget deficits?
While Selangor and Penang is shaky, DAP Johor deviation serves to not attract attention for Negeri Sembilan.
With BN majority only by two seats, DAP is seriously looking to takeover Negeri Sembilan. They have got Malays ready to be placed as DAP puppet MBs.
Since Negeri Sembilan MB Dato Mohamed Hassan looks to stay on, the situation for UMNO is not certain. The warlords have not been happy with Mat Hasan. THere have been many disinterested look in the state UMNO meetings.
Mat Hasan family or specifically his elder brother have been and still is seen as a problem to him and contributes to his unpopularity with the UMNO masses.
Source say it has been resolved and agreed that each Division chief take care of their own.
However, Mat Hasan has attracted attention by announcing his and Khairy Jamaluddin's candidacy. Khairy is seen as successful at crippling the UMNO Youth Movement.
Many observers are batting their eyebrow at his gesture to pre-empt the PM's announcement. Is this indication of something brewing for an after the general election action?
Perhaps, the Return of the Jedi?
Johor campaign problem
In 2008, the issue in Johor that resulted in some 100,000 protest spoilt votes was Iskandar Malaysia. Since then, Iskandar Malaysia has not change for the better.
In the eyes of the Johor public, the federal and state government has yet to build the scenic bridge requested by the late and current Sultan of Johor.
The situation has turned for the worse with the corruption cases involving top management of Iskandar Investment Berhad.
Basically, Johor has some campaign issue working against them.
Talk of Johor
The subject most talked about among Johoreans is Tan Sri Lim Kang Ho's dominance in Johor Baru to control some 100,000 acres of state land from coast to coast of Johor Baru.
It is done in co-hort with the Johor MB, Dato Ghani Osman through a deceptive corporate restructuring and listing plan of Iskandar Waterfront Holdings.
See the secret structure submitted to Securities Commission that will enable Kang Ho to control IWH and can ignore the voices of KPRJ and Khazanah.
That was why Kang Ho could claim in The Star interview that "we and KPRJ" will set the direction of Johor Baru development.
Anyway, Khazanah and their boys, Ganen, Vincent Lim, Zaki etc together with Gani's boy Wan Mohamaed Firdaus are already in co-hort with Kang Ho.
It was recently revealed to us that Kang Ho's relationship with Zaki Zahid goes way back when he was working under Dato Hishamuddin and it has helped him to secure contracts from MRCB. Hishamuddin left Kang Ho when he sold off his interest in Ekovest Berhad to join the cabinet.
Kang Ho is said to be the MCA Adviser but recently, few bloggers posted articles claiming Kang Ho is financing also DAP.
One is not talking of any bloggers but those that received invitation for an audience with the Sultan.
KFC free ride
Another issue that will be a problem for UMNO and BN in Johor will be the KFC restructuring that involves the state company, Johor Corporation.
The basis of the need to restructure is to raise money for Johor Corp by taking KFC up in the organisational structure.
Initially, the entrance of Singaporean Phillip Lim was already raising eyebrow. But when the new structure was revealed, there is the presence of Kang Ho at the top of the food chain, the Johor public, particularly the Malay middle class and business community, is now on a warpath with Ghani.
The Johor Baru public have long seen Ghani as being too casual with Kang Ho. As one businessman said, he saw both of them together regularly in restaurants and cafe that it is suspicious.
Johoreans are also concern that Tabung Warisan Johor was asked to cough up money to get equity in IWR to have interest in KFC but Kang Ho does not have to cough up any.
There is also Triton coughing up money to buy into IWH Resource. Who is Triton Sdn Bhd? Are they linked to Mitsubishi?
Or a hidden off-shore company owned by Temasek?
Johoreans are not happy that Temasek was allowed to buy an island at the mouth of Danga river. They would not be happy too should Triton turn out to be Temasek.
What is hidden from the public eyes is the shareholders agreement between Kang Ho and KFC party in which there is a buy back guarantee. Business with no risk?
It was also found that the claim that Kang Ho had cough some RM800 million to help KPRJ was also a lie. It was for an exchange with land and he did not disburse the money until later after the land was tranfered to him.
What else is Kang Ho taking a ride on?
After GE, too late
Since we are facing an election, we will not get into details and lengthy explanation that will be used as ammunition by PAS. The lack of education clergymen are so lazy at research and usually prefer to spin some shallow accusation.
DAP will not make much issue on what was raised since they are only to happy to see increase in Chinese population from Singapore or outside Johor.
And, Kang Ho gave DAP money?
Before Johor BN campaign to the rakyat for a new mandate and whack at the opposition, they must take care of their own affair.
We believe they will address all these mess before Ghani leave office. They better do so to reverse and do a better deal for the state and public money.
The public is not as stupid as Zaki Zahid and Azman Mokhtar thinks. Dasar Ekonomi Baru have created many knowledgeable and smart Malays able to read all these intricate corporate restructuring and manouvre.
Khazanah can only avoid being scrutinised by continuing their policy to marginalise the Malays.
With Kang Ho's quest for land, the compensation to reverse must not involve land. The public already suspect it to be so.
If some thinks we are sabotaging BN, get your priorities right.
After general election, it will be too late. It will be done deal when SC approve this daylight robbery by Kang Ho like the excuse they used for the ECM Libra acquisition of Avenue Asset.
Please do not try to praise KPRJ for building 5,000 miles of rural road. The voters may not buy that. They will say it is expected of government.
It is this poorly planned building of rural road that put the state finances in a mess.
We do not know what kind of MB we will get after Ghani. He or she better be those without any personal or financial baggage.
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