Friday, December 11, 2015

Where will this quarrel lead to?

Been watching the political event within UMNO leading to the UMNO General Assembly unfolding than writing about it. From where we are, after listening to as many sources and sides, the concern is: Where will it head to?

Tun Dr Mahathir has never lost a political war and he is not likely to admit defeat now. From what RPK described, the game is no child's play and no resources spared to ensure a swift win. Thus far, Dato Najib has survived beyond their targeted deadline.    

Tan Sri Muhyiddin has stepped up to the plate. It seemed consistent in adhering to the principle of "setiakawan" (comradeship) and refraining to fight his boss till he is disgraced. There is justification for him to do so. He has been sacked from position in government and denied opportunity to express his concern.

However, Muhyiddin is still hesitant in his move. The campaign message is still preliminary. Unlike Tun M, whose side is believed by sources willing to destroy UMNO to ensure a Najib disposal, Muhyiddin seemed still considering and reconsidering the impact on the party.   

Maybe Najib realised this thus yesterday's speech. Among the most glaring message was one to Muhyiddin that "I will fight to the end. No retreat. No surrender." A fight has the long shot of ending Najib but it will ensure the end of UMNO in the next General Election.

In the midst of pre-GE slander game, we heard it from the horses mouth itself. Najib side has anticipated the current senario four years ago. They would have kept a close watch and gather all the dirt on Muhyiddin and Tun M.  

After a long hiatus, which almost gave the impression he has ran out of bullets to attack, Tun M was stepping up his attack slowly towards December 3rd. He was more vocal when it was Dato Ahmad Zahid that made the explanation on the RM2.6 billion in Parliament.

Still, Tun M was repeating himself. Nothing new was exposed that could have shocked the establishment. Arul Kanda was comfortably giving one penerangan session after another. Noticably his press releases are now more offensive than defensive.  

Najib is in a comfortable position after the Edra sales. The 1MDB rationalisation is on schedule and at least RM18 billion will be out of the book. By the time IPIC is executed, 1MDB is a relatively non-issue by then.

Thus no need for him to be at Parliament and subject himself to the opposition. He is after all a gentleman. Fight him in a ceremonial duel, not in a street brawl where the calculated odd is against him. 

Furthermore, the argument favours him.

His detractors will not agree but he broke no law. There is no law against receiving foreign political donation. It is not unusual for political donation to go into personal account as held in trust. PKR did it. DAP did it. PAS did. Social media is exposing that Tun M also did it albeit in a big way.

Dato Ahmad Zahid was revealed it was done with the concurrence of Bank Negara Malaysia, so Tan Sri Zeti lied. MACC said it is not 1MDB money. It is repeated again.

Najib side is still holding back information and not revealing. The donor, now donors in the plural, does not want to be made known. It is quite logical and it is natural to get sceptical response.

Nothing is confirmed.

However, it is possible for few wealthy Arabs to chip in a couple of hundred million US dollar for a good cause. Their family holiday and shopping trip to Marbella could cost a hundred million, easy.

It is no secret that wealthy Arabs put aside the riba earnings from their investment for donations. However, the common folks would not have known that. They only by into Tun M argument that only a mad Arab will give so much money.

The prevailing scepticism may have encouraged Muhyiddin to start a new UMNO tradition of Deputy President delivering a winding up speech before the President deliver the opening address.  

Muhyiddin expressed himself openly at Kelab Sultan Sulaiman, Kampung Baru Monday night. In a speech dubbed by many observers as nothing new and repeating himself, he expressed the same concern he made to UMNO Pagoh weeks earlier albeit with a different drum.

Though he was not firm, he did uttered the words "penipuan" and "salah urustadbir" and getting media headlines. That sounded like a war drum. It would have been taken by some Najib supporters as outright allegation.

More so, when Muhyiddin uttered Tun M's demand for Najib to take leave and consequently to resign in front of Tun M himself. Some observer felt Muhyiddin was dancing to Tun M's tune. He should be himself. 

However, Muhyiddin is still not fully committal and still making third party demands from media social quotes. Some saw it is not the real Muhyiddin but just him dancing to the beat of Tun M as the raft for his late campaign to get a head start.

Some are more certain that he was a sacrificial gambit in Tun M's chess game for power.

Some media people claimed support for Muhyiddin is picking up after the stunt by a small group of UMNO branch heads. Puteri UMNO was quiet receptive to the presence of Muhyiddin and Dato Shafie Afdal into their conference. Pemuda was welcoming but measured. Wanita was respectable.  

With the support for Najib in a sea of red at the opening ceremoney looks overwhelming, will Muhyiddin do the Johor Sports Club joget to a Kedahan violin play?

Najib did not mince his words when he said the constitutionally defined role of a Deputy President is to assist him. In a speech where Najib provide a glimpse of inner self to the audience, the message he said was he may be a gentleman, open, and engaging, but this Bugis warrior is no pushover.

It is just that this Bugis warrior is more a strategist than a street brawler. He did not sack Mahathir or Muhyiddin or Shafie but let them squirm in their seats as he dish back what was dished at him.   

For Muhyiddin, it was a disgrace.

So winning and losing may not matter any more. He is aware that he won the Deputy Presidency in the absence of a stronger Tan Sri Ali Rustam and with Najib's help to beat Tan Sri Muhammad Muhammad Taib.

It is more a question of honour. Tun M would have liked him to take on Najib.

So the pressure from grassroot is to have party election before the general election. Majority opined that the delay was a Najib move to save himself. Many may be surprise if it is not about Najib.

Najib can wield power when the times come and get himself elected. Muhyiddin is not his worry. So as some inner circle player claimed, the delay was to save Dato Hishamuddin.

If not for royal intervention and the VP chai, he would have lost to Dato Mukhriz's ragtag campaign team. With several possible VP candidates surfacing, it is Hishamuddin that is under threat and needed that delayed party election.

If that is the case, Muhyiddin will be merely a sacrifical gambit to Tun M's chess game.

At his late age, the common folk will not likely to believe that Tun M is out in pursuit of something. Sometimes it is not the world reward but more of the need to keep going and push new boundary that is more important. To some, the thrill is in the deal than the earning.

One ex-Semangat 46 office bearer and long observer of Tun M hinted that his every political fight will have it's own set of agenda. There is something to gain in each of the agenda pursued. That is the opening to the real motivation behind the onslaught.

Some say the reward from shooting down Pak Lah was the double tracking project and Proton.

This time Tun M's main grouse is 1MDB which comes with it TRX, IPP and some energy and land deals. Also mentioned is the crooked bridge of Johor Baru. There is also murder of Altantunya, GST and BR1M.

So what is Tun M's real motivation?

If Muhyiddin decide to take on Najib, it will be based on the agenda of alleged mismanagement, cheating and corruption in 1MDB. His side claimed they have the proofs and the amount said to be embezzled by 1MDB into Najib's account is more than the RM2.3 billion.

We are still listening and open. However, the pudding must be in the proofs and not the rhetorics and suspicions. Thus far, it does not look like he understand 1MDB enough. Not when he had to rely on The Edge, Sarawak report and Merdeka Centre for information.

Can Muhyiddin sustain a fight based on only allegation of mismanagement, cheating and corruption? These days only a wali (saint) can do so. Not politicians, and especially no those that have held office.

As per our comment to some young reporters that there will not be much of an incident at the General Assembly, there will not be much after Christmas. The game is over in Najib's favour.

One senior political analyst (not the jual buku politik type) said Tun M also has lost it.

Muhyiddin should focus on being the Deputy President that support the President and help the party regain lost confidence. That will be a better ending to his illustrious career in politics that he himself never expected to attain.


Anonymous said...

RD. said...

History will tell Dr.M's intention is somewhat noble. If BN lost GE14, the new government, lead by DAP would not be kind to UMNO President, including those who once hold power.

By then, there would be no point arguing over spilled milk. UMNO would never regain its credibility and strength once its President, including the wife, languish in jail.

Anonymous said...

Where will all this lead........?????
UMNO will close shop after PRU14. At least we will get
ridd of Najib and see his downfall with glee.
As for Mahyiddin, time to pounder.
For all you know, PAS will take over.
Do u think Haji Hadi is stupid enough to accpet Najib's offer.....????
He know, this is his chance to grab Puterajaya.
The three million UMNO voters plus 10 Millions Malay will go for PAS
as an alternative to UMNO.
Goodbye UMNO.

Anonymous said...

This surgery will lead to deadwoods like najib and kunan being tossed into the toxic trash bin.

The retards will be sacked from UMNO and real intellectuals will rule.

Anonymous said...

Mana lagi penting? Presiden Umno or PM Malaysia? Ahli Umno or rakyat Malaysia?
jangan menang sorak, kampung tergadai. Rakyat Malaysia are watching...


Anonymous said...

Telling the truth is very difficult especially when by doing so one is indebted or has something to lose. That is why when someone is telling the truth that is not liked by the recipient, character assassination will be the obvious choice to counter the truth. People will start to play with all sort of nonsense to counter those criticism. But at the end of the day, people will always know what is an obvious lies.

Look at DSAI, he tried so hard to cover the truth, at the end, he failed. No question about it, took almost 15 years for some people to eventually realised what he did.

In Najib's case, it is not very difficult to ascertain the truth. Open your mind and you will easily get it. The explaination (if it can be call that way) is always changing from one day to another.

From day one WSJ reveals about the RM2.6 billion which Najib vehementy denied, so much so that he want to sue WSJ next Tuesday (?), until he admitted it (after the video of him admitting it to TSMY was leaked) but then said the money is not from 1MDB and not a corruption (denied by SPRM that they ever said that it is not a corruption) until recently zahid told that he met with the donor (after that donors and that back to donor but a few representatives).

The truth of the matter is, BNM has all the evidence but the newly appointed AG is reluctant (for a reason that only he and Allah knows) to pursue. The same AG is also the one who backtrack the case against the husband of Shahrizat in the cowgate. SC also has the evidence in the SRC case. That one is easy and more straightforward. How on earth a MOF owned company's money end up in Najib's account (the same question as how on earth Saiful's semen got into Anwar's annal). However, the truth can only be known if the authority allows it to be known. My question is : who is that authority.

Whatever Najib do, the public has already made up what they think of him. How much he tried to hide the truth, it will come back and bite him. BIG TIME.

Anonymous said...

Forget about BN losing ge14, if you are still dreaming then stop doing so, umno will still be around after ge14, and dont be surprised if bn regains 2/3 majority, just watch

Anonymous said...

underestimate not umno resilience..2018 shall we see..

Master yoda

Anonymous said...

When a consummate narcissist is determined to fight to the end, know that he will bring everything down with him because he is not struggling for any noble cause except his own selfish survival. Absolute power corrupts absolutely - may every young man and woman learn this tragic lesson - and its terminus is the hellfire.

Anonymous said...

Dr. M never lose. I don't think he lose, not yet. Wait until next year and then we will know. It may take another half a year of more, but sooner or later Najib will have to step down.

As for Muhyiddin, it is best for him to leave since he is not wanted there and form another party with his followers.

My Say