Thursday, May 26, 2011

Buku Jingga: The Malaysian Economic Hitman manifesto


Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim had once claimed that he can bring in investment from abroad, specifically the Middle East, in the tune of RM3 trillion. Off course, it will not come in one go but in stages.

On December 20th, 2010, Pakatan Rakyat launched the Buku Jingga or the Orange Book.

The Buku Jingga is the outline of their short-term and long-term plan if the manage to takeover the country's administration in the next general election or earlier should 39 Barisan Nasional MPs jump to Anwar's side earlier on September 16th, 2009.

The worrying part of the Buku Jingga is that the goodies or spending pledges will raise budget deficit by RM199 - RM253.8 billion in the first year. By the second year, another additional budget deficit of RM139.6 billion.

Without any specific proposal on additional revenue to finance the budget other than the impossible rhetorics of zero corruption and wastage, the country should bankrupt by the second year of Pakatan administration.

This is faster than Dato Idris Jala's 5 year fear factor projection to shock the public that the country would bankrupt like Greece in 5 years time should it refuse to cut it's subsidy expenditure.

The country is projected to rake in a total 5-year deficit of RM700 billion throughout Pakatan Rakyat's administration.

That RM3 trillion will surely come in handy. Malaysia will effortlessly succumb to the hands of the global Economic Hitman.

Confession of An Economic Hitman

John Perkins, a former employee of the American National Securities Agency, wrote a book "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man" in the 1980s.

Perkins' role as described in Wikipedia was "to convince the political and financial leadership of underdeveloped countries to accept enormous development loans from institutions like the World Bank and USAID. Saddled with debts they could not hope to pay, those countries were forced to acquiesce to political pressure from the United States on a variety of issues.

Perkins argues in his book that developing nations were effectively neutralized politically, had their wealth gaps driven wider and economies crippled in the long run."


In the book, Perkins described the Economic Hitmen (EHM) role as below:
"Economic hit men (EHMs) are highly-paid professionals who cheat countries around the globe out of trillions of dollars. They funnel money from the World Bank, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and other foreign "aid" organizations into the coffers of huge corporations and the pockets of a few wealthy families who control the planet's natural resources. Their tools included fraudulent financial reports, rigged elections, payoffs, extortion, sex, and murder. They play a game as old as empire, but one that has taken on new and terrifying dimensions during this time of globalization."
When a country is indebted, it is dependent and subject to the whims and fancies of the various International lender and essentially loses authority over it's own affair. That's recolonisation and loss of independence.

Malaysia had escaped the last neo-colonisation wave through the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during the currency crisis and reformasi era of 1998-2000.


Indonesia was not lucky. They had to submit to IMF and the whole world saw President Suharto signing his country and his Presidency on the loan agreement with IMF Managing Director, Michael Camdesus watching with folded arms.

During that era, Anwar Ibrahim was the Finance Minister and he willingly through his policies submit the country into the arms of the IMF.

He cut fiscal spending drastically, raised interest rates in line with the wishes of the financial market vultures down south, slash borrowing and doing the unheard of policy to seek Banks to recall loans.

Today he refute himself as working for IMF interest and blame Tun Dr Mahathir using the tired excuse of conspiracy. He accused others of practising corruption, cronyism and nepotism which he was a party to and a ground breaking practitioner.

Anwar and his political boys were involved in taking kickback as project brokers, and dishing projects for cronies. Cronyism was partly tolerated by business people as long as one delivers and fairly priced. Non business public only wish to see some redistribution mechanism in place and benefits plowed back to society.

Anwar and his crony had none of that. He was only building political war chest to widen his political influence and finance his future plans. He makes no bone of using money to gain political influence.

It was Anwar that made money politics in UMNO from a mere child play to a serious multibillion dollar power play when he ousted Ghaffar Baba and set his sight on Tun Dr Mahathir.


Anwar wants Buku Jingga to be his cause celebre. He liked others to think Buku Jingga is bigger then himself.

But if it is the answer to allegations on homosexual and sexual transgressions, then his thinking remains centred on himself as though it is a ground breaking document that has to be stopped at all cost and slander be used if necessary.

Is the Buku Jingga a political manifesto of a sensible Government?

Buku Jingga


Buku Jingga is still about Anwar himself and his agenda to achieve the highest position in Government at all cost, irrespective of his changing principles and values.

It contains ten 100 days promises and 39 common policy platforms. The 100 days promises are:
  1. Reform main Government institutions.
  2. Abolish ISA.
  3. Abolish highway tolls.
  4. Reduce corporate sector subsidies.
  5. Increase teachers' allowances by RM500.
  6. Cancel all private water concessions.
  7. Deploy free Wi-Fi.
  8. Dissolve Felda Plantations.
  9. Increase oil royaltries to Sabah, Sarawak, Terengganu and Kelantan.
  10. Resolve illegal immigration in Sabah.
The promises are in essence more of political popularity contest to make political in-road into BN's fixed deposits than genuine economic feasibility and reform.

Increasing teachers' allowance is to win the hearts of traditional BN's supporters.

Dissolving Felda Plantation and redistribute to the second and third generations will make political in-road into Felda areas. Felda Plantation is a key source of revenue for the Felda welfare program and organisation. By dissolving it, Pakatan can abolish the whole Felda scheme and leave the farmers to the whims of market forces.

Promising oil royalties to 20% as compared to current 5% is obviously a populist move to make in-road into Sabah and Sarawak. It serves to regain Terengganu, which was saddled with oil royalty issues. And to entrench themselves in Kelantan in the midst of issues related to improprietary by Nik Aziz, family and his exco members.


Most of items in his 100 day reform plan involves increasing expenditure. That in itself is in conflict with Anwar's Malaysian Economic Agenda for 2008 which seek for market driven economy, reduce dependence on subsidy and heighten competitiveness.

Political populism

Buku Jingga is about political populism and not about reforms and freedom.

Reforming the main Government institutions in Anwar's perspective is more for his political expediency than genuine reform.

He has always subscribe to the believe that institutions like police, judiciary, army, and many agencies are being abused to preserve Barisan Nasional. In place, he has no specific program but merely politically laden rhetorics.

The reality is BN Government have undertaken various reforms like Royal Commission on Police, EAIC, MACC, Corruption NKRA, etc.

As far as Anwar's abolishment of ISA, does the population favours it? The likelihood is the people want such preventive law remain for sake of national security but ensure it is not abuse for political purpose.

Government is reviewing it and it is believed that the new procedure in determining ISA detention is not left to individual but to a Committee.

Anwar fear of ISA is more for it's obstacle to opposition's plan to invoke sensitive issues to provoke the voters.

Read my lips. Pakatan will NOT abolish ISA. DAP never questioned Singapore for not abolishing ISA and it's more draconian practise. Anwar did not questioned the Americans for the Patriot Act and various new law similar and more draconian than ISA.

During the expose of the Christian Malaysia pledge, they were demanding ISA on blogger Big Dog and editor of Utusan Malaysia.

Rising Expenditure


The obvious impact of Buku Jingga is that Government expenditure will swell up drastically within 100 days.

Instead of reducing the role of Government to increase competitiveness and for a market driven economy that Anwar used to preach, he has went on the reverse for populist increase in Government spending and increased Government role in the economy.

By abolishing highway tolls and going nationalisation, it will cost taxpayers at least RM50 billion. A cheaper and more sustainable alternative which BN Government is already looking into is to have a GLIC takeover PLUS' asset.

Cancelling water privatisation will stiffle effort to upgrade and modernise the water system. It is beyond affordability of state government to own, operate and modernise the water asset.

For instance, the Selangor Government is faced with massive budget deficit and reserve drainage due to the free water election promise.

With reserve of about RM400 million left, Selangor is asking for SYABAS, ABASS and Puncak Niaga at RM6 billion without any financing in hand and still is short to the RM15 billion asking price. Capital investment is not in the picture yet.

PAAB is looking into this proposal already.

Anwar's promise to teachers will immediately inflate teachers' salary bill by RM2.4 billion without concern for other aspect of the education budget. Eventually all civil servants will demand salary increase and it could cost as much as RM7.2 billion a year.

If Anwar's promise to increase oil royalties to the states is fulfilled, it will reduce federal budget by RM12.5 billion and yet he proposed to increase spending.

Buku Jingga proposed cutting corporate subsidiy but have no specifics in reducing overall Government subsidy bill which Anwar preached before election 2008.

In all, the most outrageous proposal of the Buku Jingga was to promise a minimum RM4,000 income to all household in 5 years. This will cost Goverment RM93.9 billion per annum and is unrealistic.

Some 67.1% household are earning below RM4,000 a month. To achieve that income level, it means Malaysia has to achieve an annual compuanded growth rate (CAGR) of 21.7%. That is higher than China's 10% and their robust economy.

The road ahead will be bleak with Pakatan can only promise additional revenue from zero corruption and leakage dream of RM28 billion per annum and restructuring IPP can reduce subsidy by RM19 billion.


How will that cover for the first year's deficit of RM199 billion to RM253 billion as estimated by Ministry of Finance?


Assuming the annual increase in deficit of RM139.6 billion, the country budget deficit will exceed 10% of GDP and public debts will have exceeded 100% GDP. The country will go bankrpt in Year 2 of Pakatan administration.

With global economy uncertain and volatile, where is Malaysia expected to get the money to finance the deficit? Will it come from Anwar's RM3 trillion promise? Who are the lenders? Will it be institutions recommended by the Economic Hitman?


Now that's "Harapan Baru untuk Malaysia" down the narrow path of impoverishment and recolonised through Anwar's new Economic Hitman program.

The Malay Studies graduate in classics didn't become World Bank Adviser and Adjunct Professors of reknown American Universities for nothing.

If his economic management will be disastrous, how is Anwar to achieve those 39 common policy platform promises based on his unpragmatic erotic infactuation with liberalism and neo-liberalism philosophical ideals.

25 comments:

Anonymous said...

Buku JingGAY menate apo...IBU PEJABAT PKR pun nok kena lelong! Bodo p[uak PKR ni..cayo kat kaki bontot tu


buluh runcing

Tok Mudim said...

Bro,

you pay peanut, you get monkey
- it's as simple as that.

Just look at Selangor, they pay anwar RM2.00 as their economic advisor and the state SEDC and PBTs became like
Camdesus as in the picture.

Anonymous said...

what does a video celebrity know about economics?

melayu_taiping said...

I am neither for nor against any political divide. This Buku Color is merely an academic exercise. We have gone through formal schooling in Economics. Those graphics are very nice.

The PR will have a gargantuan challenge to walk to Putrajaya.

The real Economic Hitmen are those UMNO elites & co who have stashed away billions overseas (not forgetting to mention the White-haired Rajah).

Anonymous said...

Saya suka buku hijau
Buku jingga ni semua sampah
Nak mimpi pun kena ajar orang PR ni
Macam mana nak tadbir negara ?
Anwar Ibrahim & PR cakap sampah
Kalau tak ada new FDI, rakyat Malaysia tak akan lapar pun
murni buku hijau

Anonymous said...

buku Jingga and all the huge defecits.

Clearly it was prepared by Anwar's american consultants.

Very american budget.

Anonymous said...

No wonder that truth is stranger than fiction . Fiction has to make sense .
Mark Tawin

As long as it makes sense , ' buku Jingga ' has its prodigious stimulus of economic perception . In all sensibility , in the order of believing the given sensible-economic numbers with its constructed value of change would you think they presumably bring down the Barisan National Government ?

Looking closely at the figures of the stimuli , they do not reflex the economic truth but the economic antithesis and jargon , the game of economic deception pre-played by the rhetoric of ugly politics .

" Buku Jingga " is the DARK Orange Book or rather a handy book , full of economic trash cum garbage of our time . It has the meaning of deceit and distrust .

punk5terung said...

LOL Bro,

I know you just want to make your article sound attractive, but the concept of "economic hitman" is entirely different, distinctive, an evil initiative, trans-border, corporatocracy in origin.

Anonymous said...

Anwar - jack of all trades and master of none..... except scandals.

what do you expect?

Anonymous said...

haiya melayu taiping

youre not a malay so dont psycho people thru your nic lah

A Voice said...

punk5terung

Buku Jingga will put the country indebt and with that, the country become dependent and subserveint to another power.

Isnt that what Economic Hitman did? IN our case, it is a lot simpler and easier.

Almost similar how we were colonised by treaties and decrees.

Who do you think drafted the Buku Jingga? WHo do you think was behind Anwar's political masterplan?

They even conducted a training program for PKR to prepare for election in Seberang Jaya on 25th recently.

So rollover at laugh when what was said happened. I will be there to tell you I TOLD YOU SO.

maxthecat said...

"punk5terung

Buku Jingga will put the country indebt and with that, the country become dependent and subserveint to another power.

Isnt that what Economic Hitman did? IN our case, it is a lot simpler and easier.

Almost similar how we were colonised by treaties and decrees.

Who do you think drafted the Buku Jingga? WHo do you think was behind Anwar's political masterplan?
"

1.Who ruled the country since Merdeka and led us to have government debt/GDP comparable to Phillipines (no offence) now? Without oil and oil palm, we will not be rated A-, I guarantee u that.

2.Economic hitman come in the form of consultants. Yes, your Mckinseys, BCGs etc. Do me a favor. Check with them who is their biggest client in south east asia. I’ll save u the trouble. It’s the government of Malaysia. And all this happened under whose watch? Anwar? LKS? TGNA?

3.Since you mentioned at Buku Jingga, who do u think drafted the ETP, EPP, NKEA, NKRA? Pemandu alone? Khazanah? Kakaka.. Don’t delude yourself. Refer to 2. above.

4.Look at the recent water bond case. Socialising private debt. This has become a laughing stock. Bond holders would have sold out at MTM, losses have hit their books anyway. At worse, offer la 20% premium to MTM. But no, the gov decided to bail everyone out at a nice fat premium. Classic case of Greenspan Put. In this case, the gov blinked first.

5.Their modus operandi is always always to get you hooked on debt first. Look at 4), recent example, tell me that that isn’t taking more debt? I can give many more examples, but you can find it easily on every day news, if u know where to see. Next will be bailing out the IPPs.

6.You are barking up the wrong tree, my friend. Open your eyes, put aside your biasedness and see things for what they really are. Many ppl are not stupid to think tht PR may is perfect, but they did not put us in this situation. The ruling gov for the past 50+years did.

R2D2 said...

Maxthecat

You suffer from serious disease of biasness and cynicism.

Are you saying Malaysia went down the tube in the last 50 years?

There was absolutely no growth, development, No increase in income. No schools. No physical and human development. No nation building.

That is a blatant lie.

I think you are the one suffering from biasness.

Do be objective in your critic instead of being simplistic and resorting to lies in your conclusion.

It was the Government of the last 50 years that brought progress. IT is credible to some and less for the Opposition inclined.

I dont see that coming to Kelantan in the last 22 years except Tesco in Kota Baru if that is what is described as development by Pakatan.

Najib may have his problem with those economic hitman from Ethos, McKinsey, BCG, etc which this blogger is equally critical off.

However, it does not make the Buku Jingga look better.

Buku Jingga is so concise it its plan to bring the country to its knee with such populist policies with no sense of prudent and balance.

I too have heard Anwar claim to be able to bring foreign investment by RM3 trillion.

You should see the connection

Anonymous said...

maxthecat suffers from tunnel vision

haiyo filipino maids are everywhere around the world, their graduates end up as maids too

"comparable to Phillipines"???

Anonymous said...

anwar was the chap who almost put Malaysia under the control of IMF and world bank - to be indebted forever

a talker but not a thinker - a million lies to his name

in a nutshell - not to be trusted

Anonymous said...

if this buku jingga is so good why anwar never introduced it when he was a dpm and finance minister before.

maxthecat said...

R2D2,

No schools? No economic development?

My friend, I never said those things. Put your emotions aside, the purpose of my earlier post was to say tht, before equating Buku Jingga = economic hitmen etc, we should look at what the gov is doing. Ie no different, except of cos, the rakyat is footing the bill for the gov's follies.

Over the past 50 years, did the BN gov bring credible progress? Undeniably, I’d be the first to admit. In fact, looking across developing nations across 50 year period, we are one of the better ones. Thats a solid B. Its pretty decent. I am PROUD of that.

Could we have done better? Definitely. Are we on the road towards doing better? Unfortunately not. Over the past 15 years, we have been sliding backwards. Our ‘peers’, are no longer peers. Think Taiwan, korea, Singapore etc. Those who were chasing us, are now at least on equal ground with us. Think Indonesia.

You want to blame PAS / Kelantan for that also? Or you wanna play the we-should-bersyukur card? If ur happy that at least we’re not Sudan or Libya, and contented with mediocrity, be my guest. I say, lets do better, coz we all deserve better.

“I too have heard Anwar claim to be able to bring foreign investment by RM3 trillion.”

Najib also claimed at one time he wont increase petrol price. A politician’s word to me is worth nothing. And that applies to politicians on both of sides of the divide.

But his/her actions is worth everything. And what I see is that right now, Najib’s policies are setting the stage for the worst. And the reason is I may add, that these policies do not stem from a single objective of building a nation, it is mish mash of policies and reactions to pander to various groups, NGOs, lobbyists with the single aim of getting re-elected the next time round!

I am not that naive to think that this doesnt happen everywhere. It does. Let's be real. But always, there is balance to be struck between nation building vs self interest. Sadly, in our case its all about the latter.

What you need now is to differentiate between what is real and what is not. The ETP is a programme not a plan, gov spinmasters said so themselves. In fact, much of it is already underway.

Buku jingga is not in a position to hurt/cost us. It is just words in a book. ETP isn't. Thts why I don’t give two hoots about that jingga. I view it as progressive form of politics which provides platform for ppl to debate issues n policies frm which the rakyat can judge and think for themselves.

It certainly is better than showing hidden videos and draggin mattresses in and out of courts, don’t u think?

Rakyat who love this country will focus on things that really matter. Think of the bigger picture.

zaza said...

gud research bro.....adakah dinyatakan rm3billion inside?

R2D2 said...

Maxthecat

The fact that you have to clarify and admit making sweeping presumptions shows you are not clear yourself on what you are tlking about.

Be clear before passing a comment so that your assumption do not open your flank to attack and this lead to negate your opinion.

The Buku Jingga that is clearly and unquestionably the road to disaster but yet you choose to justify by saying what the BN Govt is doing as bad.

There is a great different between the reckless promises of the Buku Jingga and Selangor Manifersto of Pakatan and how a Government operates.

BN Government still look and weigh the pro and con of their action with clear conscience on the variable in mind before making any decisions.

Pakatan doesn't.

They simply promise. When they suddenly win Selangor, they cant deliver and got themselves into a financial mess. Hope uou are not in denial.

That is the different you do not wish to see because of your own political biasness.

maxthecat said...

R2D2,

BN Government still look and weigh the pro and con of their action with clear conscience on the variable in mind before making any decisions.

Water bond bailout, PKFZ, BNM Forex, Sime Darby etc. Need I go on? I rest my case.

Pakatan doesn't. They simply promise. When they suddenly win Selangor, they cant deliver and got themselves into a financial mess. Hope uou are not in denial.

Macha, again you are caught lying. Earlier was about me saying that there is no schools etc.

This time, show me where in my post did I say they (Pakatan) can/will/shall deliver? BTW, where is the financial mess that Selangor has gotten into? I want numbers / data. I can prove to you for every ‘mess’ they got themselves into, BN gov has another 2. Shall we wager? (of cos this is a function of length of governance, lets be fair, you will never win this wager)

That is the different you do not wish to see because of your own political biasness.

Are you talking about yourself? My assessment of Pakatan is simple. Just as incompetent as BN. But why do I (and many others) still sympathize with their ‘cause’?

One word: competition. Without competition, governments become complacent.

We must treat politicians as little kids. And these kids want toys (votes) from us. When they misbehave, it is essential we do not give them toys (votes). Only then they will be forced to do the right thing, and start competing for our votes.

The danger is when kids KNOW that you WILL give them toys regardless of whether they behave or not. It gets to their heads. They become arrogant and complacent.

To get your votes, kids will threaten you. They threaten to make a scene, to vomit to cry etc. When you blink, they secretly laugh behind your back cos they know theyve got votes inside their bags.

Think about ketuanan Melayu, Islam as agama rasmi, May 13 etc. Yes, if you dont vote us in, this will happen again etc. An old dog cannot learn new tricks.

If you want a government that spends a couple of hundred bucks on a screwdriver, and 3x retail price on Maggie mee, be my guest. It’s a free country. But the longer we ‘ignore’ misdemeanors as such, the more arrogant they become. Don’t complain about traffic jams, low salaries, substandard education, expensive cars etc. All these are a function of substandard policies. Policies created by a substandard government voted in by us.

In a democracy, people get the government they deserve. Similarly, in religion. God will only help those who help themselves.

maxthecat said...

Specially for Anon 9:13 pm, who looks down upon maids..

maxthecat suffers from tunnel vision

haiyo filipino maids are everywhere around the world, their graduates end up as maids too

"comparable to Phillipines"???


http://cib.natixis.com/flushdoc.aspx?id=52027

Go to the above link. Look at chart 1 really carefully. Focus on the trends, then we can talk ok? Table 1 works as well if you get confused by charts.

I mentioned government debt/GDP comparable to Philipines, now I am proving it to you. Note that public debt = government debt. Next time, if you wanna comment, research first. If you too lazy research, then dont comment.

From Max-who-suffers-from-tunnel-vision

Anonymous said...

haiya maxdcat

so much mumbo jumbo - trying to show off doesn't win you any respect

Najib has economic background vs anwar - only got back and ground

Simply put - better the devil you know than the angel you just met

never jump from the frying pan into the fire

meeeoooowwwww ...

Anonymous said...

Hmm.. What is najib's achievement as PM since he take over from paklah? 1 malaysia? What is paklah achievement after his take over? Hadhari? I think the rakyat should think of 'hard' progress of the government that they chose rather than believing bluntly on their promises! Promises are breakable but progress are 'showable'..

gerbert said...

i was looking for someone to actually debunk the buku jingga. i've just got one. reading through it, i can assure u that there are some twisted facts and empty promises. look at the free wifi promise. only after 3 years, penang started to wire up penang. that also not even the whole penang. and u expect within 100 days they can wire up the whole country? promise is one thing. delivering is another.

but on the other hand, some of the buku jingga promises carry some weight. take IPP for example. now even the government is looking into cutting their subsidy. good to know that tv3 is taking up this issue. we as rakyat should have the best of both worlds. not the government. if it means making them obey our orders via voting, then be it. we rakyat are the masters. not the government.

Concerned Rakyat said...

What if I tell you, both sides of the politics is being played by the EHM? It does not matter who wins or lose, both parties are already covered. You already relate they're plan with Anwar's ambition, which is plausible. and I can totally see why they help Anwar, in recent years he seems most likely to win.

What also plausible is Najib's own ambition and 'push' from his own administration's EHM influence. Remember when he was first installed, his first idea is to build the Warisan Merdeka Mega tower. Since you have read that book, it is exactly mega project like this that the EHM initiated so the country can ultimately sprawl into debt (lessons from Ecuador, Indonesia etc). As that project is total failure thanks to rakyat's uprising, now they keep pushing and pushing the Selangor 'water crisis' and suggest another mega project to deal with it, with little to no discussion at all on various alternative solutions.

Remember in the book it said, expansion is a trap in disguise, and I see both party is infected by EHM already. As long as our policy and economy abide the rules that US has established, we are forever they're pawn.

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