Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Lajim's planned departure hardly left a dent

A lampoon picture from Sabahkini
Last Sunday July 29th, Deputy Minister and UMNO’s Supreme Council, Dato Lujim Ukin and UPKO’s Deputy President, Dato Wilfred Bumburing announced their intention to join Pakatan Rakyat.

Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim was there on stage with both of them. So did the whole entourage of PKR leaders  from Kuala Lumpur to provide the number to the not so filled to the brim crowd and to provide significance to the event.

In his speech that some wrongly placed comment felt as amazing, Anwar described the rather too late-for-a-916 crossover as a “turning point in national politics.” Is it really so?

Will Lajim and Wilfred able to repeat the damage they contributed to end PBS rule in Sabah to revive BN but this time damage BN to help Pakatan Rakyat?

The actors remain the same but age has caught up on all of them.

There is Anwar, claimed to have orchestrated to buy over of PBS assemblymen into BN in 1994. Still verile but is now 67.

In a recent attempt to gain sympathy from young voters, he said if he loses, he will go to teaching. Teaching? Perhaps teaching the subject of the science of party crossover.

The crucifix fear could cost Ku Li his PM bid in 1990. How much more mature are we politically in 2012?
There is Tengku Razaleigh 78, who was the Semangat 46-led pact choice for Prime Minister and engineered PBS to pull a last minute crossover against BN in the 1990 general election.

Ku Li was cocksure of winning that he told the press, "You are out-of-date. We are now talking of forming a new Government."

Alas he lost it to the tengkolok he wore.

The blogosphere is abuzz with talk that Lajim is suffering from problems of the medical and financial kind.

Prequel to a crossover 

The crossover build-up of Lajim and Wilfred to join Anwar Ibrahim begin in early June. On June 3rd, AMANAH launched their Sabah chapter in Likas, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah.

The faces expected to make the move in the latest 'lompat' episode, which usually typifies Sabah’s ever fluid politics, were there. In addition to Lajim and Wilfred acting as co-host, there was the once made headline for casino debt, Dato Osu Sukam, allocation leaked assemblymen for Pulau Bangi and son of Tun Mustafa, Dato Amir Kahar, Datuk Mijul Mahap, etc.

Even AMANAH President Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah was once rumoured to spearhead Pakatan Rakyat’s assault for Putrajaya in the event Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim goes inside for sodomy II. He was supposed to be a “third force” or alternative choice to Pakatan Rakyat or Barisan Nasional.

Now that Anwar has a new lease of life till the appeal to his Sodomy II, one wonder of Ku Li’s move. Could it be the same gameplan but instead of being identified as independent, he is seen as an AMANAH candidate? Court of Appeal convene in October.

By mid-June, PKR state chairman, Ahmad Thamrin Jaini announced several BN leaders including two MPs will do a 'katak'. Anwar came down to Sabah but was shamed. The crossover was not ready and his ceramah in Beaufort was to a barren crowd.

Not only was Anwar shamed as his typical GEMPAQ did not material, it is also telling of Lajim’s real ground support.

Many remembered Lajim as the PBS assemblymen, who together with two other PBS assemblymen, Dr Rabin Lubing and Dato Zaini Isa crossed over to BN and started a stampede out and cause the downfall of PBS-led Government in 1994 after the state general election.

For Anwar to say, “Ini turning point dalam politik negara" would be a laugh. In the first place, it is not a turning point but typical 'katak' game of Anwar. His ‘katak’ game has been done before in Sabah in 1994, failed for 916 and he will fail again in 2012.

He is already in desperation because he is starring at the prospect of PKR being left with only 17 seats in Parliament.[Read this on Malaysia News Network here, if you need to see the maths]

Failure in making

This all started since last year from mere roadside stall talk of sending UMNO back to Semenanjung, wet dream of some to revive USNO and later culminate into a meeting in Kudat.

Subsequently, it led to the departure of USNO supporter Musli Oli to PKR in December 2011. However the rumour has been long before last year’s UMNO General Assembly.

In Sabah, the political party does not matter for one to run for office. It is just part of the option that include starting a new political party. Of late, NGO is also used as political platform as in the case of Wilfred and Lajim.

In case many look too much into former Perkasa Vice President, Musli’s foray into PKR, general election is also a festivity in Sabah for political boys to collect “duit raya” or “ang pow.” Some collect by working for certain political bosses. Some may pretend to be candidates with hope to be bought over or bought off from contesting.

Only a localised leader
Until Lajim makes his move to quit UMNO and join PKR, he could be doing a bluff to hustle for more money.

It is said he has gambling debt of RM8 million and was offered a RM25 million contract to help clear his debt but is holding out for more?

It could be a case similar to Nasaruddin, the Perak UMNO assemblyman that crossed over to PKR for a short one week before returning for BN to regain control of Perak.

Maybe not possible, but all this talk of forcing Chief Minister’s Dato Musa Aman could be mere excuse. More so, a succession plan is believed to be in place with Dato Salleh Said Keruak slotted to be CM by mid-term.  So happen Salleh used to be Musli’s fellow Bajau and backer.  

Same with excuses of unhappiness for the RCI on illegal immigration. If it is revealed, bet those names involved in the crossover could turn up as well.

Also excuse the case of poor economic growth of Sabah. Ask what the likes of Lajim is doing warming seat in cabinet.

To explain why Lajim’s move will fail and make no dent to Sabah, many did not realise that Lajim’s supporter in PBS did not join him when he jump ship to join him in UMNO in 1994. He went on to win his subsequent seats on UMNO and BN’s strength.

So how many of his UMNO supporters will crossover should he decide to join PKR? [Read Sabahan blog Jomo Malaya here.]

When Mijul and Wilfred held a pre-July 29 ceramah on July 25th to gather support from Tuaran, Kota Marudu dan Ranau, it was only attended by 400. The July 29th attendance for Anwar to receive Lajim and Wilfred was hardly pack given the many tents.

Lajim’s departure hardly cause a dent in UMNO Beaufort. There is no UMNO Beaufort supporters of his joining him and YB Dato Abdul Rahman Dahlan said is business as usual in UMNO Beaufort. [read here]

A source in Sabah described Lajim’s solid support as only from his kampung and not beyond, not even Beaufort.

The same source told us that many of the so-called crossover to PKR are only for show. They obligingly sign-up out of spite against certain faction leaders but are still BN supporters at heart and will still deliver the vote that way.

Unclear intention

Wilfred’s case was merely a case of reluctance to honour a deal.

When he became a candidate for UPKO to replace Datuk Wilfred Madius Tangau for the Parliament seat of P 170 Tuaran in 2008, the deal was for only one term.

As his term expires, Wilfred lobbied to be given a second term, but UPKO remained firm.

He is merely fighting for his political survival. And it only proves right what was commonly said that once tasted power, it is hard to let go.

Then Wilfred expressed interest for Tampurali state seat held by PBS. Definitely they are reluctant and this explains for his change into opposition tone.

The problem to find a place to run has always been a perennial problem of this small-base party since the days of it’s founding President, the late Mark Koding, whose wife just died.

In fact, another UPKO Member of Parliament for Putatan and party Treaurer, Datuk Dr Marcus Mojigoh is talking in a similar tone albeit more cautious. His case is about returning his seat in the Bumiputera Muslim majority area of Putatan to UMNO’s Division Chief, Datuk Seri Panglima Yahya Hussin.

Wilfred’s political history is equally colorful. He started as member of Parti Pertubuhan Kebangsaan Pasok Nunukragang Bersatu (PASOK) and later joined PBS.

During the internal crisis in PBS, he and several fellow PBS initiated UPKO, after PBS divorced BN few days before the general election of 1990 to join Ku Li and his Semangat 46-led pact. UPKO is a component member of BN and remain so despite the return of PBS to BN in 2002.

Anwar's amazing speech?

One unreleased commentator said Anwar’s speech on the July 29th was amazing stuff and he is destined for Putrajaya. Next time do appreciate that comments on Anwar in Sabah has no relation with the posting on Tanda Putera, so it won’t get released.

Was it really amazing?

The Choice here begs to differ. Read exerpt below:

He spoke of Pakatan plans to scrap PTPTN, forgetting that this plan has already been exposed by Umno Youth Chief Khairy Jamaluddin for having a RM23 billion price tag that Pakatan cannot refute – or afford. He claimed the cost was RM 5 billion and would come from Petronas.

He attacked the Government's debt levels despite the fact it is well within IMF guidelines at just over fifty percent and Malaysia has been praised for its prudent position just this year.

And he spoke again of the RM80 billion oil revenues he will use to fund his dreams whilst tap-dancing around the fact that this money has already been allocated to projects that help the rakyat. If you have new spending plans Anwar, let us know what existing programmes you'll be axing to pay for them.
The only thing missing from Anwar's performance was a sense of perspective.

He got carried away.

His exuberance was over the fact Pakatan has managed to win the support of two politicians. One of them, Datuk Lajim Ukin is Deputy Housing and Local Government Minister, who has been promising to resign for months now. The other is UPKO Deputy President and not a federal minister.

They are the kind of individuals who will remake the Sabah political landscape, or significantly challenge BN's position there, and given the lack of secrecy and public posturing the preceded the announcement, this was no surprise to anyone.

The Prime Minister gave the events the attention they deserved when he calmly observed that the defections "had been expected because his (Lajim's) actions and statements he had been making lately were contrary to the party's policies."

"In any case, no one is bigger than the party and it is loyalty that counts," Najib said.

Najib now has the job of sacking Lajim from his ministerial post - a task that should take him just a few minutes.

From that moment on Lajim will become a footnote in Malaysian Governmental history.
But the question remains, why have Pakatan Rakyat and Anwar in particular become so excited about this one-off event in Sabah?

It is hardly going to be a game changer in Sabah and it will be not cause an avalanche of support for Anwar.
If still insistant on Lajim to bury UMNO and BN in Putrajaya, read a simpler view from kid brother of Aspan Alias, Kamarulzaman Kamdias here.

Unless they found the crucifixed tengkolok for Dato Najib, the political science reads as nothing spectacular or not out of the ordinary and it is nothing to be worried about. The political art of perception is another ball of wax and the perplexing search for another crucifixed tengkolok

Remember we talked about Yahudi Melayu terakhir? Read here to be reminded.

They will need more than Lajim and Wilfred to unseat deft touch Musa Aman. He is hundreds of miles ahead and have quietly fortified himself. Even Najib had to abandon plan to replace with a different man there.

For richer or poorer, Musa is Najib's choice for Sabah at the moment. Will his shrewd politics work or the making of himself?

General election is only around the corner. A matter of when. Thus, it begs another question as to whether the Lajim-Wilfred move snowball, gather momentum and put in place the infrastructure in time?

Or will another ala Ku Li's 1990 last minute crossover be the death nail this time?


pak menakan hang said...

are u really sure? he who laughs last laughs best.

A Voice said...

Apalah maki-maki ni, I love to release all this sceptic views.

Ada maki2, tak boleh nak lepaskan.

Anonymous said...

Good that UMNO has chosen to sink and swim with CM Musa Aman!

Now UMNO will also inherit the all the enemies of the Aman brothers & cousin Patail.

It will be the coming together of the coalition of Muslim Bumis & non-Muslim Bumis against UMNO/Musa Aman. The Chinese votes has been been written off to PR already.

Mind you, alot of Aman brothers' enemies are in UMNO/BN, where they will do most damage in tandem with the PR army outside the party.
By the way, acoording to whispers in the ground i heard Pairin is making some asymmetric moves too...
Boleh confirm from SB sources?

Interesting times in Sabah.

~ Anak Kinabatangan

Anonymous said...

Storm in a teacup lah


Kamal said...

Lajim ini a warlord dikawasan Parlimentnya.Bagitu juga Alfred.Alferd mempunyai pengaroh yang besar dalam susku Kadazan Dusun.Is marah kerana Najib tidak serious dalam mengadakan RCi behubongan pendatang haram yang di beri kerayatan.
Kita tida dapat meneka dengan tepat apakah kedua kedua pemimpin ini akan memberinkesan kapada politik Sabah.

Yang jelas,Musa Aman tidak pandai bemain politik.Ianterlalu over confident.Orang Bajau pun marah dengannya kerana Musa Aman merupakan orang kuat Haris aSalleh yang membentok parti Berjaya yang mengalahkan Tun Mustapa.

PKr yakin mereka akan menang 10 kerusi Parliment di Sabah dan 10 lagi di Serawak.ini cukum untok mengugat BN dan Najib dalam GE 13.

Anonymous said...

Anwar can take 2 but when BN start to takeover several of MPs.

Nganga dan bebel lah dia!

This Pakatan Rakyat thinks BN ni tunggul tak buat apa-apa ka?

Anonymous said...


Every other leader is a warlord and in Sabah warlord come and go.

Without money, duduk rumah saja la bah. Pembangunan tak boleh bawak, duit kena kasi pada pengundi.

Jangan berpolitik di Sabah kalau tiada wang. Politik sini semua ceritanya wang.

Akhirnya yang untung Cina.

Anonymous said...

Try harder next time

Anonymous said...

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Anonymous said...

Tsunami in Sabah! I hope the Kota Belud arrogant MP loses his seat

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