Sunday, June 26, 2016

Say 2/3 profs, I dare you.


Seminggu tidak posting. Intended to see the post-by-elections comments and development first.

One political pundit associated Tun Dr Mahathir with TUDM warships. Warships were the symbol of naval dominance and military might. It fits Tun M's obsession for national pride. Like Tun M, warships make their presence felt as it sails proudly to patrol the Malaysian water.

Each blast of the heavy caliber guns can be heard miles away. However, KD Mahathir attack, defense, decoy and failures are visible. Would have been good should the two squadrons of 88 second hand skyhawk fighter jets purchased in 1985 was delivered.    

On the other hand, Najib was associated with the submarine. Tun M incessant attack on Najib is done openly. His carpet bombing of the undersea with depth charge is only destroying the natural environment but ineffective to dislodge the submerged Najib.

Mahathir could not get a referendum against Najib but referendum turned against himself. The stealth Najib said in front of supporters at Sungai Besar last Saturday night that it is time to win Selangor. Maybe his ambition is not limiting to just Selangor but 2/3 majority in Parliament.

In a previous posting here, we raised issue with the sudden mushrooming of University lecturers and professors giving commentary on political tactics and party election operations. Wonder will they dare put money where their mouth to forecast 2/3 majority for next GE than just something already known?

Academics failed


For a Malaysia to move to a more mature and rational politics, these intellectuals should provide more intellectual content on policy, political analysis supported by history, facts and statistic, and more daring socio-political forecasts.

Maybe these academics are playing a role to neutralise the Phd and doctorates talking from the other side. Fine but must be more than talking of what the operators and grassroot politicians are talking.

To comment on BN Sungai Besar candidate is fine as it is profiling the candidates. At least, it should be more than compiling and rehashing opinions from the ground. It does not require a Phd as the media could do a far better job.

In fact, the day the search and rescue found the late Tan Sri Noriah Kasnon, we said in certain WA groups that Budiman is best candidate with all these qualities and more. None mentioned it openly as to avoid sabotage.

One Prof Dr Azmi Hassan, a geo-strategist at UTM and Prof Mohd Fuad Mat Jali of UKM stated the obvious to say BN could win handsomely if voter turnout more than 80% and party machinery should bring back "outside" voters.

Thought geo-strategist deal with political of military planning of foreign policies along geographical factor, not predicting by election voter turnout.

Assoc. Prof. Awang Azman Awang Pawi of UM, Associate Professor Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani of UUM and Assoc. Prof. Sivamurugan Pandian of USM were all stating what was known and even yours truly shared with relevant people. Read in FMT here.

Fram a week before nomination, we knew voter turnout would be low for Ramadhan and nearing Raya. The Chinese turnout will likely continue a trend set in Sarawak. And we knew something the Professors would never know. DAP send the wrong emissary to talk to the Sekincan "opinion makers".

Although Ilham Centre director, Hisommuddin Bakar was Amanah bias and blasted by PAS as pro-PAN, he could boldly argue to predict undecided would win it for Amanah. What was wrong was for Awang Azman to make a post result claim that Rafizi's private jet issue weigh in for Amanah.

Though agree with political analyst Tang Ah Chai observation that Amanah did respectably well [read Mkini here]. everyone is an expert after an event. The issue of PAS and Amanah had been well analysed by Yunus Taslim a day before polling. The more relevant issue was a disunited opposition was a big help for Najib.

Not only Prof Shamsul Amri Baharuddin, anyone can say opposition wrong tactics helped BN to win big. Sorry, revitalise is not the right description, Prof. Otherwise, why would we be hinting on mature and rational politics?

The initial summary of the results by PAS's Research Centre Director, Dr Mohd Zuhdi ‎Marzuki, Dato Lokman Nor Adam, and Akademi Pemuda Kapten Hussein had provided sufficient facts.

Post by-elections


So how would the interpretation of the event after the election be?

For one thing, the sabotageur within UMNO Kuala Kangsar was worried with the size of the majority to cover his track and took up blogger and facebooker advise.

Tun M was left embarassed as Najib could boldly claim people rejected him. Raja Petra mocked him to say Idi Amin of Malaysia was more popular than Tun M. His so-called change or reform agenda in  his Citizens' Declaration is being questioned by opposition supporters

Tun Musa is a gloating. as he see Tun M's defeat in this political battle. He said voters were not biting the big issue he carried. And, he suggested BN ride on this momentum. 

The only saving grace for Tun M was the thanks from Amanah.   

As far as the expulsion of Tan Sri Muhyiddin and Dato Mukhriz, it was expected and only delayed by the by-elections. After 11 months, the time and mood is right for it. Impact will be negligible. 

Furthermore, Muhyiddin has an embarassing issue in which his political situation is the least of his problem. Mukhriz is a no starter with Dato Abu Hasan at the helm of UMNO Jerlun Division.

They underestimated what Najib know, and could and will do. Najib can certainly afford to gloat.  

And, Ikram's Mohd Shazwan acknowledge Najib's ability to read the political variables. The factors was insurmountable for Pakatan Harapan to win. Even perennial critic like Art Harun accept and acknowledge BN ability to set the political language, agenda and interpretation

The twitterers, Rafizi and Tony Pua can only do their blame game.

Forecast


Can opposition get their act together?

The smear campaign on PAS may not have worked but PAS cannot go at it alone. Salahuddin Ayub and Nga Kor Meng admit that. They said PAS should join Pakatan Harapan.

The response has been negative from PAS side. Their anger against Amanah has not subside. And, the honest Amanah politicians know they cannot go far by being associated with DAP. They should have realised that Dyana, Rara and Melati is out of the public eye and negotiate a better deal with DAP. 

Azmin is right and he stand as the last hope for a united opposition.

DAP was wrong to severe ties with PAS and created Amanah to replace them. PAS bitterness towards DAP is far bigger than that towards Amanah.

DAP have problems looming in the mist. If Permatang Pauh by-election only saw glimpses of protest, there is more to come.

We reiterate that Lim dynasty days are numbered. Their enemies within and without DAP are pulling together. Guan Eng's honeymoon is over. He is struggling to survive the bungalow and tunnel issues. More and many more to come.

When you keep hitting at someone, do not expect them to not hit you back. Something for DAP to learn. Every reason to shed it's subversion politics and be more mature and rational. Pick up some intelligent British wit.  

They need to live with the times. The Chinese maybe coming to their senses. They know they can't stretch their luck too far in trying to wrestle power in an overwhelming Bumiputera majority Malaysia. DAP's divide-the-Malays strategy is too predictable and will not work. They lost sight of their flank.

The Chinese are pragmatic enough to realise the economic senario is not good and it is time to focus. Off course, there are concerns as it is too early to assume there is a Chinese tsunami going the other way.

In conclusion, the opposition can only blame themselves for it. Voters are no more buying their agenda.They lost sight of their ideals and became too pragmatic. And, they became corrupt as well.

Furthermore, this is not 2013 when Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim was around to make the different concerns, urban versus rural, and ideologies to co-exists. Tun M will not be able to, not even when he just said his bad blood with Anwar is in the past.

Tun M does not have the team to do it. Too shallow, stupid and lack sensibility to read Najib's stealth moves. More so with Dato Zaid Ibrahim by his side. He is politically inapt to put any strategy and see it through.  

Two third?


The submarine is submerge in water, thus it's actions is concealed in the depth of the ocean. So does Najib.

During World War II, the submarine could attack using torpedoes when submerged. The sonar technology has catch up and warship is able to locate submarines. However, submarine technology has also catch-up and new submarine are stealth from detection.

If there is a military exercise pitting the two assets, the warship needs the best of sensor, weapon technology, training, experience and luck for a successful anti-submarine operation. One mistake and the submerged and stealth submarine will sink down the warships.

The 1982 Falklands War saw the Argentine cruiser General Belgrano sank by the British nuclear-powered submarine HMS Conqueror. It highlighted that the Argentine had no defense against submarine.

KD Najib has already instructed UMNO to focus on rakyat. They are maintaining the same momentum. No need to keep attacking opposition. There have problems looming everywhere. Stay the course of a positive campaign.

PKR and Selangor will see a repeat of Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim, but this time, it involves his successor. The arrest of Manikavasagam and maybe soon, Zuraidah will spell more trouble for Azmin. Waytha is at it again in Selangor.

In the midst of this turmoil, all Najib need to do is to strategically maintain pressure on them. From the belly of the South China Sea, he could make sure they could not settle.

It does not have to be an early GE. For a National Council of Professors,Prof Dr Nik Ahmad Kamal Nik Mahmood should be more clever than try to comment in a subject outside his expertise. Musa Hitam only suggested to take advantage of the momentum.

MCA and Gerakan are showing good signs of waking up. PAS can see that Penang and Selangor could fall. So why would PAS want to ride with a Pakatan Harapan on the decline?

Two third is already the talk of analyst if opposition continue to be disunited.

Does the warships of Tun M, who met at some claimed as his ranch in Argentina with IPP taukehs before last GE, have any defense against Najib's submarine to keep releasing 1MDB bombs?

Don't ask the pentaksub this question. They believe he has superpower or perhaps divine power to take on the American army, navy, air force and marine. They believe in their own lie without realising the 1MDB battle is over many months ago and the IPIC-Aabar disputes can't even dismantle the submarine propellor. 

* Edited 27/6/2016 1:30 PM

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

I see two silver bullets revealed , Sky-hawks in Arizona and a ranch in Argentina .

Anonymous said...

Noh Omar is back. Jgn mimpi nak selangor ....

Anonymous said...

It is not unethical for a coalition to only grabs and monopolized the smart alec, the kiasu, the liberal Malaise, the anti-faith and the pro-culture of Sodomn, for if it is in the West, they might be of great help for the simple majority winner.

Here is not the West, it is the East. In the East, some of the cohorts (such as smart alec, liberals, anti-this and that and pro-unhealthy culture) are a rare sp and the numbers are limited. They are not the king maker. Even if 99% voted a coalition, it won't affect either the battle or the war.

amir zahini Sahrim said...

Misinformation..all that is needed was patience,perseverance and above all luck

My Say