A fake picture of Bersih 3.0Anwar Ibrahim claimed the attendance for Bersih 3.0 was 300,000. Raja Petra Kamaruddin wrote that it could be 250,000 or 200,000 or 150,000 or 100,000.
One thing we learned of opposition's estimate is that their announced number tend to be a multiplication of ten by the estimated number.
On the night of Black 14 gathering on April 14, 2008 at Kelab Sultan Sulaiman, Anwar proclaimed to the crowd that the gathering that night was 15,000. We were there pretending to go along screaming, "Reformasi! Takbir! Suara Rakyat, Suara Keramat!"
One old hand at estimating crowd responded, "Nak mampus 15,000?"
His estimate was only 1,500. He explained that at full capacity the field, a football field can only take up 2,000. The crowd was only pack in front but generally sparce behind. It could be as low as 1,200.
Back to Bersih 3.0, Al Jazeera only placed it at 25,000. And immediately, they were accused as pandering to the Government censorship. Wonder what BBC estimated since they admitted being censored by Government.
Most pro-Government media or blogs put the number at between 25,000 to 35,000.
Still nevertheless a credible number than Bersih 2.0 which was around 7-8,000. Opps ... one can hear the Bersih 2.0 demonstraters, that was soaked by the water cannon, claiming the moving crowd was 25,000.
Avoiding Stadium
When Bersih 2.0 requested for Stadium Merdeka, initially the authorities were reluctant. Then Prime Minister, Dato Najib called their bluff and offered Stadium Merdeka.
Everyone was too consumed then to call Najib flip flop but most forgot to play up the fact that Anwar and Ambiga decay on their demand. They wanted the streets for it's dynamics, as PAS Member of Parliament, Dr Dzulkifli Ahmad described.
This time the Government offered Stadium Merdeka and they refused. They were determine to invade Dataran Merdeka. Why?
Forget the thought of repeating of Tahrir Square here. Marina Mahathir refuse to think there was such an intention. Clever and informative ... maybe lurus bendul (innocent straight arrow) would be more correct description.
The reason is by having it in a Stadium, it will be a daunting task on their part to fill it. Otherwise it looks barren and embarrassing.
See the picture above of PAS's Solat Hajat program in a closed Stadium in Shah Alam. Imagine how much of the seats were taken up during the ceramah session later. One blogger attending it did an estimated headcount of only 3-4,000.
Another reason is that by having it in a stadium, where most are usually seated and quite stationary, it is easy to estimate the crowd. So they can't spin to claim the crowd to be as much as 100,000 to 300,000.
If Bersih 3.0 was held it in accordance with the Peaceful Assembly Act in Stadium Merdeka and filled to the brim (off course, stadium authority will not allow the crowd to step on the grass), the full capacity is 45,000.
Can Bersih 3.0 crowd fill-up Stadium Merdeka?
Anwar claimed before the event that there will be 500,000 coming. Then he must need a bigger stadium. It will be a great propaganda to have a standing room only event with crowds spilling over into the Stadium parking lots.
He should have taken either the Shah Alam Stadium or the National Stadium Bukit Jalil.
Shah Alam Stadium is a multi-purpose stadium located in Shah Alam, Malaysia. It is used mostly for football matches but also has facilities for athletics. The stadium is the home of Selangor FA, and has a capacity of 80,000.
While the full capacity of National Stadium Bukit Jalil is 100,000. The Bukit Jalil's capacity makes it the 25th largest stadium in the world and the 9th largest football stadium in the world. It is also the largest stadium in Southeast Asia.
The dynamic are all there but Anwar refused. Why?
Frankly, deep inside Anwar he knows he can't fill it up. It is a daunting task to do so within few weeks of preparations. Usually, only sporting or entertainment event can fill up a stadium with such crowd.
M Nasir held a concert in Stadium Merdeka and he can't fill it up.
Street Estimate
The game of numbers is then a question of my estimate against your estimate. Did they estimated it well?
While we were moving around, at Bangsar Putra Station, we over heard a chap claiming he saw the crowd around Dataran Merdeka as 100,000.
Did he see it from above or while standing in the pack crowd at street level? If at street level, then it is unreliable.
Let us prove it. See this picture below.
Just with your eyes, make a quick guess. 3,000? 5,000?
We've made a hypothetical box and did an estimated headcount. It is only 260 people. Supposed the crowd in the picture filled up 2 and half boxes, that is only 650 people.
Now this picture below is zoomed from a higher elevation.
Anybody wanna guess 10,000 for this crowd?
Well ... far from it!
We've done simple drawing of boxes on the crowd and one of the box gives a headcount of 120 people. That crowd only fit into about 26 boxes to give an estimated crowd of only 3,120 people.
Realised the untrained eyes can be deceiving.
Below is another one.
One opposition blog claimed this crowd marching from Jalan Sultan was 15,000 strong.
Really?
By zooming and doing headcount on one of the section and multiply by 7 sections, it is only 1,820 people. Supposed we are about 20% off in our estimate, adding that back still only increase the total to 2,184 or round off as 2,200.
There were 6 gathering points.
Supposed each gathering point managed to gather between 1,800 to 3,000 people. We then take the mid-point of 2,400. Can the total number of people gathering from the six gathering points as only 14,400?
It can't be! That's too little.
Okay we make that 15,000 and add another 5,000 of crowd slipping in from all over. That is still 20,000.
Tell us from these pictures of almost the majority of crowd already gathering that there are crowd more than 25-35,000?
Ask yourself, if the crowd can fill up Shah Alam Stadium or National Stadium Bukit Jalil? It is definitely not in the hundreds of thousand.
At best it can fill up Stadium Merdeka but not up to the top terraces.
The point is ones visual estimate is not reliable. Without aerial photos of the crowd at a particular time and familiarity with doing aerial estimates, your guess is as good as mine.
What if we say an expert gave us the number at 35,400? Is it believable now?
33 comments:
that's why anwar - ex sekolah Melayu Kuala Kangsar, only qualified to do pengajian Melayu at UM and not statistic unlike his fellow schoolmate.
Ah, at last a methodical estimate of the crowd based on logics. With this, kuranglah sikit our fear that Malaysia will experience a bloody coup. Thank you! By the way, I think Marina sudah lupa ... just like what Ayahanda Tun said, Melayu mudah lupa, prime example of Melayu lupa is in his own daughter.
Very analytical. Thank you. Using your methodology, the recent PM Najib's event at FELDA Jengka 8 to announce "windfall" for Felda settlers were only attended, by a most optimistic estimate of only 4,650 people (as opposed to mainstream media reporting of 50,000).
i have also do a similar estimation based your method. Only lack is the complete set of photos that covered the street on 28 April. I believe no one will have the set of photos complete. Perhaps PDRM with their helicopter shooting?
There are plenty major events like count down party or soccer game which usually attended by ten of thousands every year. Asking around, little of my surrounding ppl attended such event although it was ten of thousands ppl there.
But, for Bersih, the number I got from this asking method directly with people is big, very big (who have take part).
Though the total attendance will remain a myth (except PDRM helicopter unit), all I can say is the Bersih 3.0 number is big, very big.
Nice job bro. Still, I wonder if these fuckatan pricks know how to even make an estimate or even count! Don't believe me? Get Mahfuz Omar to count your hyphothesized values... See how smart these ding backs are! Or, better still, get the f-up LGE to comment on the whole Bershit thingy. You'll be surprised how do people like this can be elected! What a mess!!!
very good bro...Hebat orang UMNO.
drmuzi
PW Cheong
One thing i know is that when the number gets big, no one can really estimate well.
It applies to media whose eye estimates goes heywire.
Past PM have someone do tick count at entrance for certain function for food estimate, except Pak Lah. Thats why his food goes to waste.
Maybe Najib has someoneassigned to do headcount. If not, it is not impossible if the MSM estimate is off due to the street level deception, but not as much as the opposition's.
At best the overestimate is by two times.
Were you a settler or 2 or 3rd generation felda settlers for you to be there to doubt MSM's figure? If you were not there, you are just being cynical and merely to underestimate Najib.
Go ahead but do so at your peril.
Dear blog owner,
Your method to derive your estimation is flawed.
Let's take the 240 pax calculation as an example.
I've downloaded the picture and enlarged it. I counted between 22 and 25 people on the front line of your box. There is about 21 to 24 rows of people in the box.
There is therefore at least 462 people. But it could be up to 600 pax in that box. I'll take the average of 532 pax in your sampled box. That is way off from your estimate of 240.
You should have been more careful with your sample calculation as you then used this 240-pax-box-sample of yours to write up your article. As such your article is now flawed and readers will find it difficult to accept the entirety of what you have written.
If you still do not agree to my calculation, let us simply count the number of pax on the front line - very clear and easy to count. There is 16 of them (including the chap in black t-shirt who is partially cut-off). And we know that there are more people on both sides of the front row. Even at the obvious 16, and multiply them by 16 rows (for a square), that is 256. Still more than your 240 - and knowing clearly that 256 is severely under-calculated.
I am a blogger myself. It is difficult to convince readers of anything. We want to share our views. But once significant flaws exist in an article, readers will reject the entire article. That would have been writing time wasted and reputation thrown out into the drain, isn't it?
Dear Anon 12:22
I am not rejecting the possibility of being wrong but not flawed, NO!
Method is not flawed, my friend. I believe that could be what PDRM used.
Proceed to correct my underestimation.
However, it is not likely to be 100,000.
I was around at the Bersih rally but for the Daulat Tuanku agenda.
Thought it was 100,000 but was told the aerial photo only found 40,000.
I believe there were at least 200,000. You need to count the other streets as well for people who cannot get near to the vicinity of Dataran Merdeka. No need to use boxes. One look and you will know because using boxes is not accurate. There were some obscured and those further away, it is impossible to calculate. And how far it goes. You cannot just use a few photographs to estimate which do injustice to those who attended the rally.
it has always given me much laughter, whenever I read comments by the Pakatan-Cybertroopers...
... here's a typical Pakatan-Cybertrooper comment:
"... Though the total attendance will remain a myth (except PDRM helicopter unit),..."
BUT... and, here it comes...
..."all I can say is the Bersih 3.0 number is big,...
however, still not satisfied with the perceived doubt, this Doubting-Thomas-Pakatan-Cybertrooper, and in accordance to the Pakatan-Cybertrooper-4dummies-Manual, was duty-bound to add... "very big."
so, how big is very big?
One is a big number... er, compared to ZERO!
also, One is a very big number when put beside a big fat ZERO.
the truth, however, is that it's still ONE.
Bro.
Whatever the figure is not important.But you must admit they are a lots of people on the street.This people came on their own from all over the country.
Contarary to UMNO gathering tomorrow in Bukit Jalil,UNMO have provided almost 5 thousand buses to ferry their supporter from all aver the country otherwise they wont come on their own and UMNO need t o provide them with food and drink.
Susah to discredit Berseh3.Hisham make the second mistake and yesterday he and Najib make bigger mistake by asking Haniff to heal the inderpedent panel.I have no problem to include Haniff but why make him chairman.We have former Federal court judge Sim.
And today Nazri announce they are withdrwing Election Bill from Parliment.What a stpid move.You make BERSEH 3 more relevent.
a minister says:
'Malaysia is NOT Egypt!....Merdeka SQUARE is NOT Tahrir square!'
ya kah?????....
if so why FEAR?????....
SUSAH PAYAH NAK KIRA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.....
hehehhehehehh
gheng lama
Anon12:22. A Voice has his reasons to underestimate the numbers, and you've your reasons to inflate them. But the method - known as aerial spatial unit - is so far one of the most reliable methods for crowd counting, especially when in flux. Anon is merely showing that the person's counting in one spatial unit is different from A Voice. That number will naturally be different from location to location. So, the method can't be flawed and Anon12:22 is also using it. Any of which proves the fundamental point in this article: Anwar lied there were 300,000. So did Ambiga, Malaysiakini and hundreds of others. They just pluck, as big a number for a political effect. Anon12:22 is trying to mitigate that lie.
Anon 12.22 is a blogger himself but gave comment here as an anonymous. That itself reflects your credibility to estimate.
Anyway, assuming you are an intelligent crowd estimator, before anything you already self contradict your calculation by giving different figures of 462, 600, 532 and finally 256 with all kinds of assumption. What kind of estimate is this? You are even unsure of your own estimates.
Now lets be fair to you and take your average 532 per box and i am sure you also agree with Anwar's 300,000 boast (otherwise you would argue his boast here or elsewhere too). So you are saying 300,000 divide by 532 = 564 boxes of people were at bersih3.0 with every single box packed with 21 x 26 rows!!!!
564 full packed non moving boxes of people????WOw wow wow are you refering to the photoshopped photo including outside the photo scope.?? See donplaypuks photo if you need help, or create 564 boxes within the 100,000 seats bukit jalil national stadium, pw cheong can help.
Lets say MSMs were incorrect while PW Cheong and his idol Anwar are right, can you now figure out where are the non-moving 532 packed boxes of people that you claimed more accurate?
Show us la. Otherwise we all have to agree that Anwar is a blatant hardcore liar la.
P.s. i said non moving because same person moving from one place to another three places cannot be counted as 3 persons.
WELL more than people attende your umno sponsored gathering..with all the tambang duit and nasi bungkus and what not..some even walked 20km to attend..on this fact alone morally your are sore loser!!
Based on my calculation, the total number is 500,000 plus plus. I'm using very advance mechanistic correlation which I cannot reveal.
Expert.
Anon 2:50
Why the need to nsme call sore loser?
Does that make your argument believable?
I do admire the dedication and resolve of the Bersih crowd. But they had some moral standing for berdih 2 but not bersih 3.
I see no basis for it. All their argument shotdown. It was more fanaticism and politics of hatred perpetuated by anwar ibrahim.
If nasi bungkus to attending umno member is an issue, hey . . . Pkr, Pas and Dap also provide food n drinks thede days.
In bersih 3, there volunteers giving everyone a drink. Some demonstraters acknowledged getting rm200 to rm300 per person.
Basic question, were u there ? If not, continue to be a NATO
Ian
Dont u hv any other argument to use?
It shows your lack objectivity and bias leaning. Coz you asked a question without reeading a voice's article.
Dont have a Don't Think Cuma Oppose Mereka ( DOTCOM) mindsrt. It is very negative.
you think umno can pull that off without providing food and money? I went there at my own will...I spent my own cash for this..No regrets...ASALKAN BUKAN UMNO!!!!
Kamal 1.04PM
What is correlation between Electoral Offense act withdrawal and Bersih 3.0 request. As far as facts goes, both opposition and Bersih (and of course Bar Council) agreed that these is the right move. You have to understand that these amendments are based solely on EC recommendation and not part of Election transformation commission. Why on Earth would you suggest that BN act in agreement with all parties involved as a screw up. As matter of facts, Maria Chin Abdullah (Bersih 2.0 steering committee lauded the withdrawal as she claimed the amendments were very draconian)
Anon 3.02PM
Of all places to troll you choose here...Seriously...
Thank you for trying an intelligent guesstimate on the crowd size. Afraid you most probably got it wrong. I was at Jalan Sultan. Your photograph of the crowd in Jalan Sultan showed a crowd size of 1820. I videotaped the crowd when it started moving towards Jalan Tun HS LEE. It took me 19.5 minutes to tape the whole crowd. From your photograph I needed only 1.5 minutes to video that crowd in your photo.I am unable to upload it onto youtube as it is more than 15 minutes long. Will try to edit it to less than 15 minutes. Once I get it onto youtube, I will send u the link and u may hv a chance to redo your calculations.
Let's say the number was 400,000 to satisfy the ego of a few cybertroopers, it still fall short of the actual number of voters who still have faith in the polling system! Right? why waste electricity bill just make so your (cybertroop's boss)happy?
Anyway, going by the person/square method, can we safely say that the actual number of enforcers appointed by Yambiga&Co. is 50,000!
Why do we need to argue on the contention of the crowd? fact is there was a whole bunch of people there that the goverment and mainstream media just couldnt accept to admit!!!
dont stray from the main reason why this happened. people want change to the way our elections are managed and this is an indication of people's opinion in public.
let's all be mature about this. BN PR it doesnt matter. what matters is it must be fair and right and gentlemanly. instead of the 2bit tricks being played. our goverment civil servants are still the same.
Hi All,
I dont give a damn about headcounting. For me, Bershit 1, 2 & 3 cause a lot of trouble to the rakyat. Imagine Bershit 2.0 in KL cause massive traffic jam till Kajang. Whoever organise Bershit 2 that time, i curse them until their dead. This is Malaysia not Arab country. We live in peace but someone just wanted their brothers, sisters, family died in Perang Saudara. Guest what? the organizer and their family are the one depart to overseas when riots and killing happen. So such stupid and monkeys for those who join Bershit.
ABITW
The pro pakatan cybertrooper counting method is like this one:
1 Male - 4 head ( 1 head, 2 knee head and 1 xxxx head )
1 Female - 3 Head ( sometime 4 head depending on the period of the month)
So, dont argue with their method mah.
-haba haba-
Well, methodologically, I think this is an excellent way of estimating the number of people in a crowd.
However, the let down is at the counting itself which I find it ridiculously less than what it appears. For instance, to count the first square at 240 is a bit unbelievable. I would say anon 12.22 counting is more realistic.
Nevertheless, you have set a good precedence for estimation. If we take a more realistic counting as by anon 12.22, your counting is 1/3 less than what is realistic. So just multiply by 3 and I think we will get a realistic figure.
don't waste your time and energy for the stupid head-counting works.
They all actually are monkeys. So lets mongkey do mongkey jobs...
Blogger's count 260 per box
Anon 12.22's count 532 per box
GM's count 260 x 3 = 780 per box so where got 1/3 of the so-called more accurate count??? If x 2 okay la, why spin2 like spanner.
Since GM feel anon 12.22 is more accurate, why not we let him show us the 564 boxes of 532 non-moving people per box or 300,000 he and Anwar boast of?
Wei, you can have 1000 per box if you wish, but show us the 300 boxes of people la. Ada ka? Just open your mind la, if we want to play play with figures, Anwar is lying through his teeth...his gigi
The sheer numbers makes nuar and geng berak kincit.....You know what I mean ha...!!!
There is a much simpler and accurate way to estimate the number of people that were there during the Bersih day. By just calculating the number of people that came out from the few LRT stations for that day. By doing so, you may argue that not all that travel with LRT that day are going to participate in Bersih. However, I think it is fair, because by just calculating those that came in with mass rail transit, you have already discounted the people who are already living in KL, those who went in by cars, and some that already reached the day before. We need someone that audits LRT company, to get this data for that day. =)
To those commenters who seem lost in the fantasy that all of the 25,000 people who went to town for Bersih 3.0 were independent rakyats, I say bull.
Put it this way: PAS has about a million members. DAP probably 500,000. PKR maybe 800,000. If just 1% of those members turun padang that day - which is not as fanciful as you might think, given the busloads that came over from Kelantan and Kedah - it would match the number that had turned out for Bersih 3.0.
So UMNO ferried busloads of their supporters to the stadium? Well, quid pro quo, man... so did PAS and DAP.
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