Mahathir remain PM, but PH lose Perak, Kedah?

Malay Mail Online, Zainal Epi titled his latest piece accurately, "With things much changed since, can Tok Mat keep Rantau in a contest?"

The post-Semenyih political development is going at rapid speed that it is difficult to forecast the possible direction and more so, the outcome of Rantau by-election, in which EC announced nomination on March 30th and polling for April 13th.

Yesterday's meeting between Dato Anifah Aman and Tun Dr Mahathir, and statement by UMNO's Deputy and Acting President, Dato Mohamed Hasan after the UMNO - PAS meeting at PWTC ended Anwar's hope of toppling Mahathir.

A day earlier, MCA and MIC jointly held a meeting and press conference to express intention to seek a different political alliance.

It seemed an overreaction to media misquote of Dato' Nazri Aziz's comment on vernacular schools.

But, most commentator felt it is more of their discomfort with the cooperation UMNO and PAS.

Nazri has expressed his stand. He will not resign but leave it to BN Council to sack him.

Nevertheless, it's too premature to comment further as the possibilities are endless. More development awaits.

Impact of UMNO-PAS marriage

The marriage between UMNO and PAS certainly have an impact on the national political landscape.

Maybe it will not change the federal government yet, but the move certainly could see 30 parliamentary seat held by PH fall to the UMNO-PAS coalition.

That would take the next GE to happen, but in the short term, one could be seeing the fall of Perak PH government.

The message below have been viralling since the Semenyih BN win.

🛑 State government changing hands with UMNO and PAS combine?

🛑 Dun Kedah

PH 18

BN 3
Pas 15
Pas+BN=18

Possible change of hand.

🛑 Dun Perak
History may repeat!

PH 29

BN 27
Pas 3

Pas+BN= 30

BN will rule Perak if UMNO and PAS coalesce totally. 🙄

Fall of Perak PH 

PH won Perak by 2 UMNO state assemblymen crossed over to PPBM. One was sister-law of Perak MB, Dato Seri Faizal Azumu Tak. The other was Zainol Fadzi Paharuddin. 

Sources in Perak said Zainol was recently called for an audience by Sultan Nazrin. It raised the possibility of Zainol to replace Faizal.

Faizal was found to have lied on his qualification for years, but only of recent time, admit he did not completed his education.

Faizal or usually addressed by.his nickname Peja still lied to claim he ran out of money to finish his degree at Edith Cowan University in Australia.

Actually, the son of a rich tin mine concessionaire holder flunked and subsequently, flew off to London to escape the scorn of his father.

Few years before Australia, he flunked out of Kolej Damansara Utama.

There is the possibility that Zainol could be the next MB but the state government could be UMNO-PAS with Zainol returning back to UMNO.

Surely, the Speaker Dato Ngeh Koo Ham would block any motion for vote of no confidence. He had block a motion by Peja to debate ICERD.

Few months back, he was going to allow the motion being manouvred by Aziz Bari, former MB Dato Nizar Jamaludin, and PAN's Asmuni.

It will now depend on Peja to make the move to call for a snap election. It will be a risky one with the Malay wave returning back to the ever willing UMNO and PAS.

As for Kedah, there are two possibilities:

1. For BN to combine with PAS 15 seats plus some crossover to takeover the state.

2. With Dato Mukhriz is.increasingly more unpopular than his first time as MB, PPBM is under increasing pressure to secede the seat to PKR's Johari Abdul.

Since Johari is a staunch Anwar supporter, it is unlikely to happen and Mahathir may resort to direct his son to dissolve the state assembly.

A possibility UMNO and PAS is looking forward.

Could Mahathir pass PM-ship to son? 

Mahathir could stay on and not be force to vacate the position. If any, quarters in UMNO believe his hope is for his son to be PM.

But when can he do so. UMNO-PAS is looking forward to gain 30 seats and win all the jumped seats by next GE.

The viral message below:

30 kerusi parlimen PH yang "bermasalah" pru15 nanti jika umno dan pas bergabung secara rasmi :

KR : 14
Bersatu : 8
Amanah : 6
DAP : 2
Jumlah : 30

1) P. 005 - JERLUN - MUKHRIZ MAHATHIR (BERSATU)
PH : 18,695
UP : 25,242
net : -6,547

2) P. 006 - KUBANG PASU - AMIRUDDIN BIN HAMZAH (BERSATU)
PH : 29,984
UP : 30,350
net : -366

3) P. 008 - POKOK SENA - MAHFUZ BIN OMAR (AMANAH)
PH : 28,959
UP : 41,791
net : -12,832

4) P. 010 - KUALA KEDAH - AZMAN BIN ISMAIL (PKR)
PH : 36,624
UP : 42,543
net : -5,919

5) P. 014 - MERBOK - NOR AZRINA BINTI SURIP (PKR)
PH : 30,902
UP : 40,448
net : -9,546

6) P. 015 - SUNGAI PETANI - JOHARI BIN ABDUL (PKR)
PH : 45,532
UP : 46,723
net : -1,191

7) P. 017 - PADANG SERAI - KARUPAIYA A/L MUTUSAMI (PKR)
PH : 31,724
UP : 38,360
net : -6,636

8) P. 018 - KULIM-BANDAR BAHARU - SAIFUDDIN NASUTION BIN ISMAIL (PKR)
PH : 23,159
UP : 31,184
net : -8,025

9) P. 149 - SRI GADING - SHARUDDIN BIN MD SALLEH (BERSATU)
PH : 21,511
UP : 22,771
net : -1,260

10) P. 165 - TANJUNG PIAI - MD FARID BIN MD RAFIK (BERSATU)
PH : 21,255
UP : 23,693
net : -2,438

11) P. 057 - PARIT BUNTAR - MUJAHID BIN YUSOF (AMANAH)
PH : 16,753
UP : 25,967
net : -9,214

12) P. 063 - TAMBUN - AHMAD FAIZAL BIN AZUMU (BERSATU)
PH : 38,661
UP : 48,289
net : -9,628

13) P. 074 - LUMUT - MOHD HATTA BIN MD RAMLI (AMANAH)
PH : 21,955
UP : 31,690
net : -9,735

14) P. 077 - TANJONG MALIM - CHANG LIH KANG (PKR)
PH : 24,672
UP : 29,625
net : -4,953

15) P. 002 - KANGAR - NOOR AMIN BIN AHMAD (PKR)
PH : 20,909
UP : 23,771
net : -2,862

16) P. 133 - TAMPIN - HASAN BIN BAHROM (AMANAH)
PH : 22,435
UP : 26,031
net : -3,596

17) P. 136 - TANGGA BATU - RUSNAH BINTI ALUAI (PKR)
PH : 32,420
UP : 36,722
net : -4,302

18) P. 092 - SABAK BERNAM - WARNO BIN DOGOL (BERSATU)
PH : 11,188
UP : 22,162
net : -10,974

19) P. 093 - SUNGAI BESAR - MUSLIMIN BIN YAHAYA (BERSATU)
PH : 17,350
UP : 23,856
net : -6,506

20) P. 094 - HULU SELANGOR- LEOW HSIAD HUI (PKR)
PH : 40,783
UP : 44,012
net : -3,229

21) P. 096 - KUALA SELANGOR - DZULKEFLY BIN AHMAD (AMANAH)
PH : 29,842
UP : 29,879
net : -37

22) P. 109 - KAPAR - ABDULLAH SANI BIN ABDUL HAMID (PKR)
PH : 47,731
UP : 57,837
net : -10,106

23) P. 112 - KUALA LANGAT - XAVIER JAYAKUMAR A/L ARULANANDAM (PKR)
PH : 43,239
UP : 44,858
net : -1,619

24) P. 119 - TITIWANGSA - RINA BINTI MOHD HARUN (BERSATU)
PH : 23,840
UP : 26,546
net : -2,706

25) P. 080 - RAUB - TENGKU ZULPURI SHAH BIN RAJA PUJI (DAP)
PH : 20,659
UP : 25,366
net : -4,707

26) P. 082 - INDERA MAHKOTA - SAIFUDDIN BIN ABDULLAH (PKR)
PH : 28,578
UP : 35,143
net : -6,565

27) P. 083 - KUANTAN - FUZIAH BINTI SALLEH (PKR)
PH : 22,807
UP : 28,363
net : -5,556

28) P. 088 - TEMERLOH - MOHD. ANUAR BIN MOHD TAHIR (AMANAH)
PH : 23,998
UP : 36,828
net : -12,830

29) P. 089 - BENTONG - WONG TACK (DAP)
PH : 25,716
UP : 29,390
net : -3,674

30) P. 173 - PUTATAN - AWANG HUSAINI BIN SAHARI (PKR)
PH : 14,106
UP : 14,201
net : -95

Despite this new found hope, Mahathir maybe toying the possibility of "a return" to UMNO. The UMNO 3.0 theory mentioned yesterday.

Rais's qualified warning

In the meanwhile, Mahathir need to convince UMNO and PAS by applying his power as PM to curb DAP.

Mahathir could be looking to remove or even charge Lim Guan Eng for the Penang tunnel corruption. Tommy Thomas's days could be numbered.

A lesson for the arrogant DAP. Never underestimate the Malays and easily get cocky.