Wednesday, September 09, 2015

No solution in sight

Forget facts and figures for a while.

And forget the principle of evidence in the court of law. Malaysian politics is only concerned with perception because the popular belief is Malaysians vote on perceptions and not on ability to govern.

By the way things are looking, no solution is in sight for the current political crisis. It has reached to a point where it has lingered into the realm of economics i.e. fall in ringgit.

The intended solution is not so much for a truce between Dato Najib and Tun Dr Mahathir. When the conspiracy to topple the government begin to unfold, Tun M clearly said there is no conspiracy. He want to topple Najib.   

Over drinks out of town over the weekend, a group of UMNO members shared an interesting theory. Dato Najib and Tun Dr Mahathir can settle but Datin Seri Rosmah is against it.

Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned! It's no different from his old letters to Tunku Abdul Rahman but for ma'am, Tun M crossed the line by getting personal and dragging her, son and family in the political arena.

So they say. But realistically, it makes no sense these people could have access to a story not known to those in Putrajaya and the corridors of power. 

Now that SB's former Deputy Director, Dato Hamid Bador implicated Rosmah in his statement questioning DPM and Home Minister, Dato Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, it only makes it difficult to dismiss it with the excuse Rosmah is always a convenient blame.

Knives are out on Hamid for conduct unbecoming of a government officer in revealing confidential information to the public. By the mood he is in, he could reveal more. 

With many security personnel at PM's home, only way to dismiss his allegation on Rosmah is to say Rosmah's presence at home does not mean she is in the meeting. Hamid could reveal his source or give more description and any denial is lost.

Trust deficit

PM's problem is trust deficit and no solution is in sight. It is so endemic that any answer coming from Najib or anyone associated to him is disbelieved or with sceptical eyes.

The pro-Tun troopers had been effective exposing any outfits deemed as mouthpiece of Najib. They are so aggresive that anyone not with them are brushed in one stroke as pro-Najib. It only create enemies of fenceseaters - a lesson the pro-Najib should also learn.

The pro-Najib made the mistake of falling to Tun M's plea for support trap. Their vicious attack on Tun M made public sympathise with him instead of siding with Najib.

Trust deficit is so bad that there is a believe that it was even suggested that PM should not bother answering questions as there will always be doubting Thomasses coming up with replies which is better received.

The contributing factor to the trust deficit of the public and also within UMNO must be the lack of spontaneity in PM's response to any issues raised. It is neither his style to get into an open combat nor in his gene to response off the cuff.

He needs to have a meeting and consider the various implications to his options. Take the necessary care and undergo the proper bureaucratic process.

By the time, an answer is given, it is well anticipated and a counter reply ready.

Over lunch yesterday, few young UMNO staff shared a simple survey done with members attending a certain program. They summarised simply as 8,000 out of 9,000 in their sample want Dato Najib to resign.

Perception against Najib is too bad among grassroot that the strategy to hold key position holders at the division will not be sufficient.

Najib may stay on to remain as President but it will be detrimental to the party. So it is natural that some critics like Dato Hamidah Osman is consistent in probing the question what then are we waiting for.

The likes of Hamidah and the UMNO staff still believe Barisan Nasional will do well should Najib resign and replaced with anyone. Not too sure they have the number and seat count to support their claim.

Political war

So the next question is whether it is wise to change captain mid voyage?

They could answer using Malaysia's 1-2 loss to Saudi Arabia after losing 0-10 to UAE. Changing coach and FAM President in the mid of a tournament could reduce the loss.

But it is still a loss. For BN, it is loss of power.

The quarrel will continue to be a long drawn one. Tun M-Najib's Peloponnesian War continues to fight with each army stay on in different terrains. In the last posting here, it could not be determined as to which side is army-based Sparta and navy-based Athens.

From the perception perspective. Najib has become more Spartan in his application of power to replaced the Deputy Prime Minister, retire the Attorney General and Special Branch Director, delayed the PAC proceeding by cabinet reshuffling, replace the PAC, and turned on the conspiracy theory.

The problem is it does not convince the public but build up a perception of cover-up. The MACC raid was an overkill that supported that belief.

The answers to the RM2.6 billion Arab donation need to be more convincing. Zahid's claim to have met the donor is insufficient in a trust deficit situation.

Much analysis had been done in this blog here, here, here and here

At the same time, Tun M people continue to do their Athens-like flank attack from the sea to make reports to various enforcement agencies and authorities at all financial centre, attended Bersih 4.0, and lawsuit by Anina.

Many more to come and pile-up as the parliamentary session in October for the vote of no confidence approach.

Pro-Najib people seemed unable to exploit the tendency by pro-Tun people and opposition to change goalpost. Even the spin by Tun M's supporters to justify his attendance on Bersih 4.0 managed to diffuse the attack. The call for Najib's resignation needed to save UMNO have caught on within UMNO grassroot. 

Hamid Bador's revelation encouraged even safe player like corporate personality Tan Sri Dr Samad Alias to speak out.


By the way things are going, only Najib's claimed genius strategist Boffin boys knows the plan to counter all this. Sincerely hope they will not resort to spinning but be factual and credible with their answers.

They should avoid giving hodgepodge answers that is disconnected or hanging because it only raise more questions. A lethal wrestling hold that is a once and for all answer is needed to end further discussion.

Dewan Rakyat Speaker, Tan Sri Pandikar Amin Mulia should quit stalling with excuse of no provision in the standing order. He should make way for the vote of no confidence.

At the same time, it should not be precedent setting to become as common an action as Lim Kit Siang's regular proposal of solution for Royal Commission of Enquiry. It is as hypocritical as DAP agreeing to the royal's constitutional power.

If Najib loses, he goes. But, Najib is most likely to survive the attempt and will give legitimacy for him to stay on. He could use the opportunity to recompose himself. The rakyat have spoken through their representatives and the opposition have no more basis to continue to criticise.

Najib should use the opportunity to turn himself around by getting heard. In December, he could do a tell all at the UMNO closing speech at the General Assembly. That is the time all eyes throughout the land will be focused on him.      

If he is righteous and innocent, it is his chance in a situation where no solution is in sight.

More accusation

In the meanwhile, pro-Najib's answer to Hamid Bador incident had been a 3-day shelling through NST, BH and TV3 on the content of the guilty plea by Xavier Justo to the Thai court.

The latest heard is Thai court have rejected Justo's appeal to reduce the 3 years prison sentence.

On the third day of shelling, the pro-Tun side could be countering back by piling up more accusation with a Wall Street Journal latest revelation.

Kit Siang published it in its entirety here.

It is heard from a source that the amount "donated" into Najib's "personal account" is not RM2.6 billion but RM4 billion. Raja Petra claimed the donated amount was USD1 billion thus converted at today's rate to be RM4 billion.

However, this surprise latest USD1.4 billion allegation add up to more than RM4 billion.

WSJ's unnamed source claimed IPIC and AABAR had not received a US$1.4 billion supposed to be paid by 1MDB.  

In few of their recent postings, Sarawak Report have been attempting to sabotage the unwinding of deals with IPIC of Abu Dhabi which was part of the 1MDB's 6-month targeted rationalisation program, with incomplete and unsubstantiated reports.

No source disclosed or quote of a person or institution mentioned. No details but just repeating past claims. 

More damaging is the spin below by M'kini below:

M'kini is easy to dismiss but WSJ is a different ball of wax. How will Media Prima react to the diversion attempt?

It seemed Berita Harian had been sold out everyday since Monday. There is every reason to believe they will continue. They are going through each and every one in the list of 10 names that was revealed in Xavier Justo's plea. Read Singapore's Straits Times in July here.
When 1MDB is touched, Arul Kanda can be expected to answer swiftly.

Surely a press statement is due any moment. So watch the space below but in the meanwhile, read Lim Sian See here:
Wall Street Journal does not name its source or provide any proof of the unproven allegations it is making, thereby seriously discrediting its sensationalist story.

1MDB cannot speak on behalf of Aabar or IPIC nor can we comment on the accounting arrangements of third parties. What we can confirm is that the 1MDB audited financial statements clearly describe the amount and purpose of the payments, which for the avoidance of doubt, is structured as a deposit (i.e. a financial asset belonging to 1MDB and not an expense to 1MDB).

Secondly, based on those payments, we can confirm that IPIC did provide and continues to provide, guarantees for the principal and interest of 2 x US$1.75 billion bonds issued by 1MDB, with a total principal and interest amount of approximately US$5.5 billion.

Thirdly, we can confirm that 1MDB auditors, Deloitte, made specific and detailed enquiries on these payments prior to signing off on the 1MDB audited accounts.

Fourthly, Deloitte has strongly defended its methodology and audit process of 1MDB at the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) hearings, a bipartisan select committee of the Malaysian Parliament. Accordingly, the Wall Street Journal is wrong to state “it isn’t clear what happened to the funds”, at least not from a 1MDB perspective.

Read in full here.
Somewhat similar to the RM42 billion allegation where it runs counter to the audited account.


Media Prima expose of those behind the attempt to topple the government needs more than that as the public will see the exposed 10 as exposing wrongdoings.

After all, the alleged tampering were not provided with details. The two Edge top people acknowledged cheating Xavier but denied any intention to topple the government.

Balls remain at Najib's feet.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Sounds frustrating ....

Najib does not operate as a leader of a nation but only to a group of followers. By the way things are turning out, it is indicative of a weak team. That is what you get for excessive emphasis on loyalty over ability.

The game is a battle of the heart and mind. Don't see his people behaving and acting towards that direction.

Of late, the complain is his general operates as though this is a military war and every enemy must be exterminated. He is creating enemies rather sympathisers and supporters. The man does not seem to have any understanding of the past to guide his future actions.

As for the UMNO members claiming BN will win without Najib as PM, they are living in fantasy land. With or without Najib, the perception is BN could not win with 1MDB and donation hanging by a thin thread over their head.

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