Sunday, October 11, 2009

May not be Waterloo yet

In the Battle of Waterloo (Sunday 18 June 1815 near Waterloo, Belgium) forces of the French Empire under Napoleon Bonaparte and Michel Ney were defeated by those of the Seventh Coalition, including an Anglo-Allied army under the command of the Duke of Wellington and a Prussian army under the command of Gebhard von Blücher.

It was the decisive battle of the Waterloo Campaign and Bonaparte's last. The defeat at Waterloo put an end to Napoleon's rule as the French emperor, and marked the end of Napoleon's Hundred Days of return from exile. (Reproduced from Wikipedia)

PKR's Ijok by-election loss in 2007 was taunted by Raja Petra as Waterloo for Anwar Ibrahim and PKR. PKR had only one seat in Parliament at Permatang Pauh. The loss in Ijok killed any chance of picking up momentum for PKR.

Abdullah continued to screw up and his biggest screw upwas deciding March 2008 for the general election. PKR came out stronger in 2008 to command the biggest number of opposition seat in Parliament.

Turning the table this time around, Barisan Nasional, specifically UMNO is on a losing streak. Both PAS dan PKR had managed to win 7 out of the 8 by-elections and it is PBB in Batang Ai that saved UMNO from a goose egg. Talk is a loss for Isa in Bagan Pinang would make the place a Waterloo for UMNO.

Unless by the fluke of Murphy's Law, It may not be yet for UMNO. The way the campaign has progressed Isa's personality and character overpowers any personal attack, national issue and racial sentiment played here.

Anwar left town last night tarred. The audience to his ceramah is few. Realising it is not the platform to pile up more attacks on Isa and UMNO, he held back. It is only the risalah and blogs that is going around.

The Komplot Pembangkang campaign was in disarray trobled by the choice of candidate. Their move to create the several rickus from Tursdat night all teh way to the wee hour early this morning shows their desperation.

Typical cheap campaign trick was deployed to lessen the blow. Muslimah PAS was lying to the elder voters. Fake RM100 bill with Isa's name was spread around. SMS claiming PKR win and army swing was spreading. (Read The Unspinners, Melayu Bersatu and parpukari for happening on the ground)

How much will Isa Samad win by?

It is safe to predict it will be Isa's for the take.

In the 2008 general election, UMNO won by about two thousand votes, reduced by half to 2004 general election. PAS made credible inroad with the postal votes with a former army officer candidate. They managed to secure some 500 votes in Isa's own kampung. Can they get the 2,400 postal votes again?

Despite the psygame SMS game by PKR operatives claiming to have secured 70% of postal votes, reliable source estimate 80% postal votes went to BN.

The important by segment of voters would be the youth or below 40 segment. There is some 50% of them and it could be iffy here.

By race, the Malay votes could be placed conservatively at 50-50. Chinese votes may swing in Isa's favour. The 19% Indian voters remain unsure. If the Indians favoured PAS, Isa could still pull off 20-30% of the favour. The challenge to translate Isa's popularity into a vote for UMNO and BN lies here. This is where national issues like Kugan's death and Shah Alam temple could weigh in.

Local voters have grown restless and tired with the traffic jam, endless ceramah and risalah for almost one month. Voters turnout is important for Isa. PAS voters are usually the early voters and by afternoon, it is usually UMNO struggling to get their voters and supporters out to vote.

Optimism for UMNO is running high last night. Numbers were thrown in with abundant to as high as 4,000. But that is too optimistic. Too high a number will only make UMNO complacent.

Many idiots in Kuala Lumpur would start claiming it as a turnaround in public confidence for UMNO. They will deny the reality that it is Isa and not really UMNO that is running in Bagan Pinang. UMNO has still a tallorder to do.

A large majority will send the wrong message to UMNO. The members wil go about in their business as usual way. The rejected and has been leaders will use Isa's win to justify recycling them back. This could undo the reform process. The plan to rejuvenate UMNO with young bloods will get detoured.

A loss or majority below 2,000 will make life realy difficult for UMNO. The saving grace is that there will be some form of urgency for reform and rejuvenation. That has not been happening and the "enemy" is gaining ground fast.

Ideally, a majority of around 2,500 will be good for Isa and the party. The last minute peraih undi machienry will have to work. As at 11:00, the voters turnout is rather low.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

napoleon defeat in waterloo is because he divided his forces into 2.what we need now is to retreat and consolidate biggest fear is that we may win a battle but lose the war

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