It means Tun Dr Mahathir only won the GE14 battle, but lost the war against UMNO again.
His lost to Dato Seri Najib in UMNO was not a mere battle, but was war, which ended him quiting UMNO and avenge by working with the enemy.
If GE14 was the endgame war, there is no more attempt to manouver out of the agreed power transition. He will secede the PMship to Dato Seri Anwar in May 2020 and him and his family seek asylum abroad.
Talk of a new coalition government - backdoor or otherwise - to takeover as PH collapse means Dato Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has outsmarted him.
Mahathir lost another political battle and still lost his political war against UMNO. He is slipping in his late age.
Unless 94-year old Mahathir still have sharp claws despite the contraints DAP systematically imposed on him, it is not possible for his attempts to succeed within a month or two.
Whether he form a coalition of PPBM, UMNO and other parties or PPBM rejoin UMNO to form a new coalition, Mahathir could not "... did it my way".
Zahid skillfully evaded all the punches and to follow the movie Rocky storyline, his repeated hook to the ribs wore down the champ.
Fauzi Abdul Kadir analysis in his December 28th posting in the blog Permadu Malaysia, that went viral after the Christmas holiday, saw Mahathir's loss. ,
MAHATHIR MAY REJOIN UMNO
What Mahathir expected did not happen
Initially, Mahathir Mohamad thought his party – PPBM (Bersatu) – could morph into a new version of UMNO. After all, it was him who brilliantly destroyed the original UMNO in 1988 and created “UMNO Baru” (the current UMNO version 2.0). But unlike in 1988, Mr. Mahathir had quit UMNO to form PPBM on 8 September 2016, and was no longer in charge of UMNO.
UMNO won four times higher than Bersatu in GE14
Hence, after he leveraged on opposition Pakatan Harapan and stunningly defeated the scandal-plagued Najib government, his first priority was recruiting UMNO MPs to join his party. UMNO, although lost miserably, still won 54 parliamentary seats in the May 2018 General Election – more than 4 times the number of seats Mahathir’s party managed to capture.
PPBM the worst among four strategic parties
Mahathir’s party won only 13 seats out of the 52 Parliamentary seats it contested in the 2018 poll. That’s only 25% success rate, the worst among four strategic parties making up the new Pakatan Harapan government. PKR became the biggest party, winning 47 out of 71 seats contested (66% success rate) while DAP grabbed 42 of 47 seats contested (89% success rate).
Amanah performed better than PPBM
Even AMANAH, the smallest party of the coalition, had done better than PPBM, capturing 11 of 34 seats it contested – a comfortable 32% success rate. Desperate to enlarge its party, Mahathir ignored criticisms and happily accepted UMNO defectors, doubling his party’s MPs to 26. However, after PPBM lost the Tanjung Piai seat to the opposition, its number is reduced to only 25 MPs.
Humiliating defeat in Tanjung Piai
The humiliating defeat in the Tanjung Piai by-election last month was indeed a game changer to PPBM. Not only Mahathir’s party failed to win sizable Malay voters despite his racial and religious extremism, the strategy backfired and angered more Chinese voters than the premier had anticipated. PPBM lost by over 15,000 votes – punished by both Malays and Chinese voters at the same time.
The UMNO frogs had stopped jumping over
Even before the unexpected Tanjung Piai by-election loss, the UMNO frogs had already stopped jumping over. Shocked, Mahathir claimed his government had expected to lose by not more than 2,000 votes. Naturally, after the Tanjung Piai, it becomes harder to entice the remaining 38 UMNO MPs to defect and join a losing party like PPBM (Bersatu).
Azmin arranged secret dinner meeting
Azmin Ali, the blue-eyed boy of Mahathir who was caught in a leaked gay sex video, immediately arranged a secret dinner meeting on Nov 17, just two days after his political master was given a bloody nose by angry voters in Tanjung Piai. The attendance of 22 Members of Parliaments – 17 from UMNO and 5 from PKR – was just an attempt to throw a cat among the pigeons.
Azmin's failure to get enough number for Mahathir
The errand boy fails to get the number – at least 112 MPs in the 222-seat Parliament – for Mahathir to form a simple majority government with oppositions UMNO Malay nationalist party and PAS Islamist party. So, does that mean the 94-year-old cunning old fox is game over? Not until his family dynasty is properly put in place.
Indian-Malaysian PR controversial preacher Zakir Naik
Mahathir is known for saying one thing, but do another thing altogether. After Tanjung Piai’s screw-up, one would expect Mahathir to change his strategy. But not only the old man didn’t learn his lesson, he has gotten more racist and extreme. He deliberately invited Indian Muslim hate preacher Zakir Naik to the recent Kuala Lumpur 2019 Summit to make a statement.
Racism, extremism, xenophobia, Malay supremacy
The world’s oldest prime minister has no plan to tone down his racism, extremism, xenophobia, Malay supremacy and all forms of bigotry. The influential Zakir Naik could one day be a useful tool to rally gullible Malay-Muslims for his party. With nothing to lose, Mahathir wants to prove that he could become more Malay than UMNO-Malays and more Islam than PAS-Muslims.
Deliberate attempt to instigate racial riots
In what seems like a deliberate attempt to instigate racial riots, PM Mahathir warned Chinese education group Dong Jiao Zong that there could be consequences to its Chinese Organization Congress seeking to persuade the government to cancel “Khat Jawi” lessons in vernacular Chinese and Indian schools. He threatened that the Malay community might retaliate.
End result will be chaos
Mahathir said – “That will only result in Malays having their congress and talking about closing down Chinese schools. We are a multiracial country – it is important for us to be considerate about other people’s feelings. If you start making attacks against other races or going against the Constitution, the end result will be chaos, instability and everybody will be poor.”
Malay can, Chinese cannot
So, the Malays can organize Malay Dignity Congress (MDC) but the Chinese cannot do the same? More importantly, the Mahathir’s MDC can attack and threaten the minorities that their citizenship could be revoked, but Chinese Organization Congress cannot even hold a meeting just to discuss Khat Jawi lessons being forced down the throat of Chinese and Indians primary students.
Irresponsible remarks and notorious Ibrahim Ali
The irresponsible remarks by Mahathir were obviously a green light for Malay extreme and racist groups to take to the street and “run amok”. Notorious Perkasa chief Ibrahim Ali, one of Mahathir’s good buddies, has demanded the government to bring back the Internal Security Act (ISA) 1960, a draconian law that allows for detention without trial or criminal charges.
Another Operasi Lalang?
It appears that freedom of speech is only applicable to the premier and people aligned to him. Perhaps “Dictator Mahathir” wanted a repeat of “Operasi Lalang (Weeding Operation)”, a major crackdown launched on 27 October 1987 by the police under the pretext of combating racial riots – but used to arrest activists, opposition politicians, students and others who opposed his corruption and dictatorship.
UMNO is still strong
Yes, the old Mahathir is back. And now everything makes perfect sense why he did what he did. Last year, he laughed, mocked and insulted UMNO and even predicted that the corrupt party will collapse. He said – “UMNO is fragmented now. It is going to collapse. There is no future for UMNO anymore because people detest the party.” That was before UMNO MPs crossed over.
The number game
The easiest way to destroy UMNO is simply to engineer the defection of its elected MPs and state assemblymen. It is also the only way for PPBM to remain influential in Pakatan Harapan coalition, hence the opportunity for Mahathir’s son, Mukhriz, to become a prime minister one fine day. When Mahathir kicks the bucket, it’s the number game that will determine the survivability of his son.
UMNO cannot be destroyed
At that time, ex-PM Najib Razak’s cousin, Hishammuddin Hussein, was supposed to turn traitor and leave the party with 30 MPs to join Mahathir. The prime minister had expected a sea change when ex-UMNO MPs switch to his party in droves. He was looking forward to the day when UMNO ends up with only a handful of MPs before the next 15th general election.
Lately UMNO hardly criticises Mahathir and vice versa
But that day didn’t materialise. Instead, the remaining 38 UMNO MPs in the House of Representatives refuse to jump ship and have adopted a “wait-and-see” attitude. This year, Mahathir rarely performs his chest-thumping stunt and declares UMNO is going to be history. Likewise, UMNO has been remarkably quiet and hardly criticises Mahathir.
Concerted attack against DAP to weaken the party
What happens throughout the entire year 2019 is a concerted attack against Chinese-based DAP party and the Chinese community. Make no mistake. Mahathir’s consistent attacks against Chinese education group Dong Jiao Zong is no different than UMNO’s year-long attacks against DAP. At the end of the day, the purpose of Mahathir and UMNO is to weaken the DAP.
Lost power to the Chinese, Christians and Communists
Besides Khat Jawi, other racialized issues included the ashes of former communist leader Chin Peng, defunct-LTTE but deemed as a terrorist organization, hate preacher Zakir Naik, race quota in matriculation programme, and whatnot. It was to stir up racial and religion sentiments among the ignorant Malays that they have lost power to the “Chinese, Christians and Communists”.
Game plan has changed
There is only one reason why Mahathir, after splitting ally PKR into Anwar and Azmin factions, wanted to weaken DAP, who commanded up to 95% of Chinese support in the 2018 general election. The old fox’s game plan has changed. He realises that UMNO cannot be destroyed. Despite the corruption, UMNO has become an institution too entrenched in the country, thanks partly to Mahathir.
Mahathir's endgame is to rejoin UMNO
Yes, Mahathir’s endgame is to rejoin UMNO – after his unforgivable enemy Najib Razak is sent to prison. From the beginning, his mission was to topple Najib. Now that his protégé-turn-nemesis faces corruption charges, there is no compelling reason for Mahathir to destroy UMNO, the same party he created back in 1988. After all, if he can’t beat UMNO, then it’s wise to rejoin UMNO.
Possible merger of Bersatu and UMNO
Once Najib, arguably the most influential and charismatic crook in UMNO, is imprisoned, the rest of UMNO MPs would fall in line. Assuming a handful of the 38 MPs cannot be accepted, a merger of Bersatu and UMNO could create the biggest Malay political party with MPs numbering close to 60. If traitor Azmin could bring 15 MPs from PKR, that number will balloon to 75 MPs.
Convincing UMNO grassroots to accept Mahathir
With crooks like Najib Razak and Zahid Hamidi out of UMNO, the party will basically become leaderless. Warlords like deputy president Mohamad Hasan, Annuar Musa, Hishammuddin Hussein are expected to play significant roles in convincing UMNO grassroots to accept Mahathir as their new leader. As the dominant party once again, the gravy train will ensure everyone gets their rewards.
RoS will not declare UMNO illegal
It also explains why UMNO is yet to be declared illegal and closed down, despite the fact that its accounts have been frozen by the authorities for more than a year due to money laundering. And it definitely explains why other crooks like Hishammuddin has not been grilled, let alone arrested by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC).
DAP in difficult situation
DAP is already trapped. They can’t reprimand Mahathir’s racial and religious extremism for fear of being called anti-Malays. Heck, they can’t even openly support Chinese education group Dong Jiao Zong for the same reason. Once Mahathir rejoins UMNO, he has little use of the Chinese voters. DAP would slowly become like MCA, “kowtow” to UMNO under Mahathir leadership.
Mahathir-UMNO berpisah tiada
Think about it. Whatever Mahathir and his minions do lately have all the trademarks of UMNO – from using the ethnic Chinese as the punching bag, calling them communists regardless of their loyalty, to threatening to close down the vernacular schools unless the minority ethnic obediently accepts whatever craps and nonsense shove down their throats.
First published by Finance Twitter on 27 December 2019
Some will question this claim that Zahid outsmarted Mahathir. One is talking about the master of Machivellian politics.
Zahid looks menggelabah (to be on edge, to be nervous and/or confused) and under pressure, thus how could he outsmart the mighty grandmaster in the politics of deception, psywar and narrative of deceits.
However, one should bear in mind that it is not Zahid's composure that is being analysed. No doubt his speeches is not as he was as youth leader. More so, it does get repetitiously boring to hear him offer praises, call for applauses and repeat cheers. What matter is the outcome.
Zahid succeeded to hold UMNO together against all odds. The current attack of Dato Lokman Noor Adam that went personal will have least impact as the bandwagons are now willing to round up to defend against a lone injun.
In the not too distant past of last year, Zahid was practically all alone.
Some will say Zahid will go in. He cannot be considered smart. For one, the court has not decided and it cannot happen before May 2000.
Secondly, most observers are unaware of how good Zahid's lawyer is. He is well respected by other lawyers and judges. Apparently he can match the ability of Tan Sri Shafee Abdullah albeit subdued in approach.
In a war, there will always be casualty even the winning army can lose its general.
According to one of the speculated and much talked about plan of Mahathir, he would subdued DAP after having put PKR and UMNO in disarray. If it is legally feasible, Ops Lallang or some deepstate operations could be one way.
However, nothing fears DAP more than PH coalition collapsing and they be out on the streets again. The extend of their brevity will be tested. Dato Dennis Ignatius, the former Ambassador to Argentina at the time Mahathir acquired the 300,000 hectares ski resort and horse ranch near Buenos Aires, read it wrong.
Nevertheless, it is not a bad idea for DAP or even PKR to pullout of PH and pull away from PPBM. By letting UMNO and PAS be associated with the highly unpopular Mahathir, BN or MN will lose disastrously should GE15 be called following suspension of government and dissolution of Parliament.
However, PH could not easily be absolved from the blame and redirect it to Mahathir. He has no Ministry under him.
To be continued ... HERE