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Why Malaysia Should Not Rush Into Fuel Pain While Markets Are Calming

For weeks, the global conversation was dominated by one question: what happens if oil breaches levels that force governments into difficult choices?

Now, markets appear to be signalling something different. The latest developments surrounding the United States–Iran negotiations suggest movement towards de-escalation and a possible settlement framework, even though many details remain confidential and implementation risks remain. 

Financial markets reacted before diplomats finished speaking. Wall Street rallied, and oil prices retreated sharply as traders priced in expectations that supply disruptions may ease and that the Strait of Hormuz could gradually reopen to normal commercial traffic.

Oil has fallen significantly from recent peaks, although prices remain elevated compared with pre-conflict levels and continue to trade in a volatile range around the psychological USD80 per barrel mark. Markets are not celebrating peace; they are removing part of the geopolitical fear premium.

When Politics Meets Economics: Isham Jalil’s Podcast Homework Problem

It was a refreshing change to see Isham Jalil step away from his usual political commentary and return to economics — after all, economics is his actual vocation. 

As an economics graduate from an Ivy League university in the United States, a former civil servant, and a former officer in the Prime Minister’s Department, one would expect him to be most comfortable discussing fiscal policy rather than engaging in personal attacks and political polemics.

Political blogger Jepry Jaws once contrasted Isham with Nurhisham and observed that much of Isham’s public commentary tends to revolve around political attacks, emotional narratives, and one-sided arguments. Unfortunately, despite his prominence on social media, his political influence remains limited. He has yet to demonstrate significant electoral appeal, having struggled even at the party grassroots level.

Perhaps that is why his recent appearance on Shamsul Akmar’s Khabarnya podcast was particularly interesting. For once, Isham was discussing economics rather than politics. Unfortunately, the economics was not much better than the politics. The Harvard economic graduate couldn't pin down a Minister of Finance with a Malay Study degree from a local University.  

National Resilience Begins at Home

 

For many Malaysians, life today appears largely normal. Shopping malls remain crowded, roads are congested, restaurants are full, and daily routines continue much as they did before. It is therefore understandable that many people are not particularly worried about the economic challenges emerging globally.

Yet beneath this appearance of normalcy, warning signs are beginning to surface. SMEs are reporting shrinking order books, rising raw material costs, pressure on operating margins, workforce reductions and increasing concerns about business sustainability should current conditions persist. 

The remarks by economists and policy observers such as Nurhisham Hussein and Dr Nungsari Ahmad Radhi that the current challenge resembles a supply-side crisis deserve serious attention.

Unlike a demand-side recession, where consumers stop spending and governments can respond with stimulus packages, a supply-side crisis is fundamentally different. The problem is not a lack of demand. The problem is the rising cost and uncertainty of producing, transporting and supplying goods and services.