Saturday, February 07, 2009

Perak Politics: Reality of Realpolitik

The Perak political situation is an interesting albeit amusing episode in our political history. Like Tun Dr Mahathir, many would be amused with the current development, particularly the inconsistency in the opposition rationale.

When the Opposition led by Anwar campaiged to get BN MPs to jump party, it was acceptable. But when it hit them on the face, it is no more acceptable. Only now they want to play the moral high ground? All the rationale the Opposition offered could be turned around by their own previous remarks.

This is realpolitik at work. The loser can go cry baby for all anyone should care. There is no dicky do in politics but bare knuckle against bare knuckle. Face fact. It is Anwar out-manouvred, out-witted and eating humble pie.

By merely compiling the words of the Opposition Leaders and personalities from the day Anwar launched his jump party psywar campaign on April 14th, 2008 Black 14 night at Kelab Sultan Sulaiman till his targeted September 16th, 2008 and the day YB Nasaruddin's made his "brief 11 day foray" into PKR, all their rhetorics could be dismissed easily.

To blame the episode to BN, remember that one that swing it against Pakatan Rakyat to BN are not BN ADUNs but Independents. Didn't PKR left their two ADUN out to dry? The so-called treachery is not done by BN ADUNs. Should it be convenient to lay any blame, perhaps blame it on "Ibrahim Ali". He, He, and He!

One can make all the legal arguments, but it is still interpretations. For instance, blogger Lawyer Kampung presented legal quotes to support the Sultan's authority as provided for and do we not remember he is our former Lord President. (update) Small Talk blog on the power to appoint comes with the power to dismiss. Kim Quek article found in blog Dandelion believed Sultan made a technical error to applied the Federal Constitutional to the State Constitutional practise.

The legal arguments boiled down to formalities and technicalities. Tuanku Sultan made wise decision beyond merely legal considerations. HRH may have considered the practical decision in line with Dr Mahathir's cynical question: Will Pakatan Rakyat Government (or former Government) convene the Dewan Undangan Negeri Perak? The continuity of Government must be foremost in his mind.

Hidden behind the justifications of law or administrative precedents, it is realpolitik in play. It is the reality of politics and political game. In another words, it is the stategy and tactical arts of politics over the science (rationale or justification) of politics.

When it comes to realpolitik, shouldn't we accord the grandmaster title to Anwar in the art of party hopping. He conducted the "Jump Party Orchestra" in 1994 Sabah that brought four Sabah PBS ADUN into UMNO for UMNO takeover.

Tengku Razaleigh who with Tun are the concern voices of this latest political development. Is it not essentially the same with Ku Li's involvement in the 1976 manouvre that lead to PAS downfall in Kelantan via Berjasa?

To the chagrin of the loser, all is fair in the world of realpolitik as long it is done within the ambit of the law and administrative precedent. There is no different in the case of Perak. Anwar has to face fact that he was out-witted by his former Naib Ketua Pemuda, Dato Seri Najib in his own game.

He is left with only one option that is to directly or indirectly sue the Sultan. Good luck because he'll never win!

Thus, I wish to reproduce a February 4th, 2009 Bernama report. At the end of the posting, there is a short cynical realpolitik reply to the report's comment on Indian absence in the new state Government.

Was PR Out-manoeuvred In Its Own Game?

KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 4 (Bernama) -- "They have hit a wall. They are running out of options," remarked Gerakan deputy president Datuk Chang Ko Youn when describing Pakatan Rakyat's (PR) move to announce the dissolution of the Perak state assembly prior to obtaining royal consent.

He said the desperate move was probably prompted by rumours that more than two of its state assemblymen had defected to Barisan Nasional (BN).

Two hours later Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak made the much awaited announcement, declaring that the BN had the numbers to form the new state government after three state assemblymen became independent and pledged their support for Perak BN.

The palace has yet to announce whether the head of state had given his consent to the Menteri Besar's request to dissolve the state assembly, however, political observers and pundits believe that PR is on weak ground for dissolution of the state assembly.

Political analysts believe that the PR state government had become shaky after Bota assemblyman Datuk Nasarudin Hashim joined the Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) and this had prompted BN to win over some of the state assemblymen from PR.

Nasaruddin, initially with Umno, 10 days ago announced that he had left BN to join the PR with PKR de facto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim welcoming him with open arms and applause from the opposition pact.

One senior opposition politician believed that Nasarudin was holding the key to the collapse of the PR government in Perak when he decided to make a U-turn back to Umno today.

"We have 29 seats even with the defections... so there is no reason for the BN to offer to form the government," the Opposition leader initially said.

But when told that Nasarudin had made an about turn and returned to the BN fold, he said:" Aiyoo, ya ka...I think we got played out this time."

"That means we have 28 and they (BN) got 32 (with the inclusion of the four who defected). I will send a written statement if that is the case," he said, politely severing the telephone call.

However, some observers believed that Nasarudin's about turn was not the key issue but the collapse was more attributed to the defection of the other three assembly members.

They believed that the bigger issue would be how BN was going to form a state government that truly reflected the power-sharing of its component parties since some will not be represented.

"Politically it is a good plan. But we have to look at the bigger picture. There is not even a single Indian representative in the in-coming BN government. It seems like it is a big family but without positions," he said pointing out the fact that all four MIC candidates who were given seats in the 2008 general election under the BN banner, had lost their respective seats.

"Under the PR, Indians had a state legislative Speaker and an executive councillor (Exco). But now Indians have lost it all. The BN must do something to compensate this. At least among the Chinese, there is one elected representative from MCA and he can fill up the Chinese Exco quota but the same cannot be said for the Indians," he said.


Taking this into account, speculation is rife that there would be more defections from the PR to the BN and this time it would involve some Indian state assemblymen.

Another issue is who will BN appoint as the Menteri Besar as the person must not only be "clean but also seen to be clean" to boost its image in this state.

There has been talk that Datuk Zambry Abdul Kadir, the Pangkor state assemblyman and Bukit Chandan state assemblyman Datuk Wan Mohd Khairil Wan Ahmad are being considered for the post.

Note: Another suggested reading is a posting by blogger Dato Ariff here.
Comment: No Indian? Don't they have Zambry?

Seriously, let it be. Some may question this logic. However, lets look at the political reality and practices or realpolitik.

It is not about denying Indians representation. They made their representation wholesale through Pakatan Rakyat. They put all their bet in one horse but it didn't payoff. THey have to live with it.

But is the real issue about some Indians wanting to be involved in the new Government? There are many ways but it has to be within the ambit of law and practices. It is not going to be in the manner they wished to be like before.

Barisan Nasional which coincidently offers and promises in their election campaign was not able to sway the Indian voters rationale to vote for MIC, UMNO and BN. Perhaps they have come to expect that even if they voted opposition, they will still received those offer and promises.

My view is Indian have to live with their decision. Unless they felt the deprivation of "direct representation", only could they realised to stop being emotional and be wise and smart to hedge their votes.

For a quick fix, I would suggest PKR Indian ADUNs jump over to MIC. Makhal Sakti? He, he, he!


Update: 9:00 pm

16 comments:

zakwan said...

Xplain 2 me how Anwar was beaten at his own game?

Didn't UMNO bastards say it was immoral to party hoppin?

Unlike Najib who uses the backdoor in an unconstitutional way,Anwar attempts to go through the backdoor last year usin the right democratic channel

He even seeks 2 meet PM Badawi to obtain his assurance that they will be a smooth transition of power(which didn't occur) before seeking an audience with the King to obtain His Majesty's consent 2 from the government

Anwar even calls 4 special parliament session to move a motion of no confidence 2 oust the UMNO/BN led government(which also didn't occur)Those 30 or so MPs crossing over can reveal themselves in this session instead of havin Anwar reveal them in a press conference like what Najib did

I recall him sayin fresh elections will be held a year or less after successful takeover by Pakatan. Then,we, the rakyat will let him know whether we approved of party hopping or not

Bottomline,what najib did was a far cry from what Anwar attempted 2 do
One adheres 2 the Constitutional Laws n the democratic principles while the other trumps on it

Perhaps the failure of 916 was Anwar followin everythin by the book

Richguy said...

Well, I think to answer your allegation, I reproduce here Hannah Yeoh article from her blog:http://hannahyeoh.blogspot.com/

Friday, February 6, 2009
A mockery of our democratic institution

To those who argue that the political crisis in Perak now is a taste of Pakatan's own medicine (referring to the Sept 16 takeover plan), they have failed to see the key differences between the two. If you remember what happened when Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim claimed to have the numbers to form the new federal government, he wrote to PM Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi requesting him to convene an emergency sitting of Parliament. This was rejected by the PM. The next constitutional option is to press for the dissolution of Parliament to make way for fresh new elections. That was also not entertained. Anwar Ibrahim exhausted the constitutional means that were available to him. If Pakatan were to act unconstitutionally and lure defections, then we will be having a new government today. But we didn't and we will not act unconstitutionally. So you can't say that Najib's coup and Pakatan's plan were one and the same.

Some may also say, well what about the earlier defection of Bota assemblyman, Datuk Nasarudin Hashim? Why did Pakatan Rakyat accept him? Why not force his seat to be vacated for a by-election? Let's keep things in perspective here. His defection was that of an opposition lawmaker to a governing lawmaker. His defection did not alter the balance of power in the State Assembly. Pakatan Rakyat remained as government, and BN as opposition. Status quo. Logically and intelligently, anyone can safely assume that Pakatan Rakyat didn't need a defection from BN. Thus, he defected on his own accord and on his own will. There was no need for Pakatan Rakyat to force him to vacate his seat as he did not win the seat on a Pakatan ticket. The Pakatan government really has no standing in forcing him to vacate a seat which wasn't earned by Pakatan in the first place!

I must say that I had great respect for Sultan Azlan Shah. Until yesterday. I wonder how he could possibly consent to the formation of a new BN state government when constitutionally, a government is still in place. And to even approve to a new Menteri Besar when the existing one is still in office? How can any state have 2 heads of government at any one time? There can only be one Menteri Besar of Perak. This is a mockery. The Menteri Besar can only be removed by the State Assembly via a vote of no-confidence or via the dissolution of the assembly. And none of these two constitutional means has been requested by BN. How can anyone claim that Najib and Anwar are one and the same?

Next, the Sultan called for a "unity" government to be formed by BN and the Independents. Let's be clear about this. The Independents are in no way legally bound to represent BN. Well, at least not yet, not till they officially become members of a BN component party. All that the Sultan and Najib has from them is a verbal assurance that "we will be friendly to BN". And just by appearing in a press conference with Najib, it justifies the change of government? What if next week these Independents were to be seen in a press conference with Pakatan? A real "unity" government envisioned by the Sultan should have been an all-inclusive government of Pakatan, BN, and the Independents. Pakatan and BN each have 28 seats, and the Independents 3. Thus, no single party or coalition has a commanding majority. If there is to be a "unity" government, it calls for a new coalition of PR-BN-Ind which is impossible. Thus, what the Sultan has called for is simply a name without substance. What "unity" if it's going to consist of only single-minded representatives - all "friendly to BN"? That's not a "unity" government, it's a BN government. This is a mockery of the intelligence of Malaysians. A beginning of what is to come with this PM-to-be.

Anonymous said...

i hope you take the same line if there's a jump of MPs to PR. At least, that would be consistent, rightly or wrongly.
oh, by the way, did the Parliament Speaker allow a no-confidence vote?
Yes, its a fair game but was the constitution abided by? if one agrees to "the end justify the means" without following to the T under the constitution, then please throw the constitution book away. And dont ask us to buy and read it as the first thing to do as a citizen of this country. You dont apply the constitution as you deemed fit, do you? OH and also, stop writing on subjects you dont believe in, else whatever reputation thats left will be in tatters. Is that too much to ask, Voice?

charles gregory said...

good write up...i support pkr to be a balance to umno as no 1 party can hold too much power...but then again i think both parties are a joke

anwar got beaten by his own game and like the oldies say, empty vessels makes the most noise..

ill still root for pkr for the balancing effect but given a choice, i think the power should be more balance.

aiyo said...

All is fair in politics. To who?
If I am voter and have voted on the basis of the party platform, do you think this "all is fair" stuff is fair to me?

I don't know what games the politicians are playing but if all those who have voted for the froggies were to be given their voice to speak, do you think the froggies would be smiling in the press conference. Don't I as a voter have a right to voice my disappointment via the ballot box again? Why are the froggies hiding behind the skirt of technicalities?

Anonymous said...

Dear all,
While we ponder about Ketuanan Rakyat, lets sings together this song

Yo ho, yo ho, a pirate's life for me

We pillage, we plunder, we rifle and loot
Drink up me hearties, yo ho
We kidnap and ravage and don't give a hoot
Drink up me hearties, yo ho

Yo ho, yo ho, a pirate's life for me

We extort, we pilfer, we filch and sack
Drink up me hearties, yo ho
Maraud and embezzle and even high-jack
Drink up me hearties yo ho

Yo ho, yo ho, a pirate's life for me

We kindle and char, inflame and ignite
Drink up me hearties, yo ho
We burn up the city, we're really a fright
Drink up me hearties, yo ho

We're rascals, scoundrels, villains, and knaves
Drink up me hearties, yo ho
We're devils and black sheep, really bad eggs
Drink up me hearties, yo ho

Yo ho, yo ho, a pirate's life for me

We're beggars and blighters and ne'er do-well cads
Drink up me hearties, yo ho
Aye, but we're loved by our mommies and dads
Drink up me hearties, yo ho

Captain Jack Sparrow

Anonymous said...

Saya setuju dengan ulasan tentang kaum India...they thought that they are king maker...they must realise that they are minority...kaum yang ketiga terbesar ...but compare to % penduduk malaysia ...how many % are they? Please my Indian friends...don't be emotional..look at the facts and reality..jangan dengar cakap Anwar and ur Hindraf leader...

and for Dandelions....semua tu tentang interepretation and technicalities...Dymm Sultan Perak dan jumpa semua Adun...kalau Sultan arahkan diadakan Persidangan Tergempar...I think u can predict the outcome bila adakan no confidence vote ...come on brother tak payah buang masa..itu cerita nak buy time..mana tau Adun yang 3 ubah fikiran balik...semua ni like Voice said it is a real politik and power ...cerita pasal demokrasi ke...suara rakyat ke...semua tu bull shit....Sultan has make the right move..

A Voice said...

Zakwan

Stop wasting your rhetorics.

Are you so blinded by Anwar's oratory skill to not able to see he is merely twisting words to talk of ethics and procedure?

Was it BN that decide? Was it a jump into BN? In case you were away on another planet, it was the Sultan. They jump to be independent and not BN party members. Go deal with the Sultan and Ibrahim Ali :) !

About 916, why the heck he need to deal with Dolah Bodowi? Go see Agong la. Or he met Agong but HRH was not impress?

How the hell anyone is to believe Anwar if he didn't reveal the jumping MPs? Why takut? Don't gimme rhetorics like takut his list are being coerce and harass. Pure speculative

Wake up la. You guys were duped by Anwar. No MP wanted to jump over.

Do homework Zakwan before talking. Better wakeup from your Anwar hallucination.

Richguy

Do you ever think DAP Hannah Yeoh would say otherwise? Poor person to quote here.

Why complain of BN, It wasn't BN that decided! Go complain agst Sultan la. Sue HRH. It would be great mileage for BN.

Did Hannah bising when Anwar went about his 916 drama????

Aiyo

Go deal with your MPs and ADUNs.

That was why Dr Mahathir campaigned in PRU12 to choose the person and not party.

Did you complain when Anwar claim BN MPs to jump ship? Or you were happy for them? If so, it is double standard!

Anonymous 11:47 am

Did I complain abt SAPP jumping to be independent?

Which part of the constitution was not abide by? You know better than a former Ketua Hakim Negara?

Or it is a case of wishful thinking? Interpretaing in the manner you wish it to be interpreted.

Perhaps Anwarititus ... a disease for over infatuation with Anwar that all common sense and sound judgements are lost!!!

Charles Gregory

I respect your position.

Dhahran Sea said...

Salam Voice,
While I agree with you on some points, I beg to differ on another. BN/UMNO "seems" to win this political tussle in Perak, BUT at what price? Two of the four "katak" are really SCUMS of the earth! Their sex-bribe cases are pending & their integrity, none!? They are the scums of PKR and here we have UMNO/BN willingly embracing them into the fold, rendering the wish of the people of Perak in GE12 meaningless. Alang-alang nak menang biarlah "gentleman" sikit. For all we know, Najib & Co. tak pasal2 kena padah, things could backfire on him! Or it COULD WELL BE the strategy to kena sama dia! Btw, it seems the Sultan doesn't EARN the respect of quite a number of his subjects... I wonder why? Maybe the royalties nowadays dah melebih... showing off sana sini when the rakyat were made to suffer for 5 years under Dollah, SIL&CO. So who's to blame? Daulat berpada2 lah... jangan lah ada mentaliti Hang Tuah tak bertempat... this is 21st century bro.! Also, those MPs yang melompat, PANCUNG saja or buang negeri - they have betrayed the people's trust! Applies to BOTH PR & BN MPs, and the 1st one yang kena should be the Agong of Katak - Ibrahim Ali!!

SynergyBiz said...

Zakwan,Richguys

Do you guys really believe that Anwar had 30 BN MPs under his control ?

Since PM didn't agree to call for special parliament sitting, why didn't Anwar moved for no confidence vote after parliment in session about 2-3 weeks after 916?

Or if speaker rejected the no confidence vote, why Pakatan rakyat MPs and the so-called defecting BN MPs didn't vote to defeat any bills introduced by government? Just to show that they have the majority !!

All bills introduced by government were passed without much hassle. The fact is Anwar didn't have enough MPs to form new Federal Govt. If he had enough MPs he would have done everything to form the new government ... including street demonstration.

I used to believe Anwar ... but not anymore !!!

Anonymous said...

Zakwan,

Kau tahu tak Battle chest yang Emperor LKY sediakan untuk DSAI bagi projek lompat dah kering. MPs BN tak dapat lompat nampak gaya nya. Nuar punya financial advisor invest duit tu dahulu kat Labu Peram Bernard Madoff. Bernard Madoff punya skim cepat kaya bukankah dah collapsed baru-baru nih. Maka habis lah dah duit tuh, macam mana nak bagi kat 30 MPs BN yang Nuar janji tuh.Sial punya financial advisor, tamak..... Hang tak percaya tanya Nuar. sebab tuh Emperor tak mau jumpa dia lately. Emperor lebih sayang kat Zaid Ibrahim sekarang nih.

Leman Kulop Besor
Kati, Kuala Kangsar.

Anonymous said...

Bro,
After watching the video so called 2nd REFORMASI in KK (mostly looks like PAS supporters), so sad that those bunch of Malays risking their lives for Kearajaan Boneka DAP. What did the DAP fight for them for the past 10mths , NONE. I ve gut feelings that the rulers knew whats going on in his state. Kalau Melayu sendiri dah tak hormat Raja Melayu, bangsa lain apatah lagi. Apalah punya barua depa ni,pakai lah otak sikit. Melayu Rempuh Melayu ,Cina DAP Dok Rumah Goyang Kaki .

stonehead

MD RADZI AHMAD said...

In the Perak Politics, we manage to see some of fighting spirit of UMNO. The defeatist will always have a lot of things to complain.The smartest will prevail.

A Voice said...

Dhahran Sea

I admit to the less than perfect situation and equally cncern. But that is not the contention of my piece.

As far as the Sultan's decision, he had to do for the political stability for the state. It got nothing to do with feudel mentality.

If I had been Najib, I wouldhave done it differently. At the end of it all, who started the jump party game. Is it not anwar?????

Was there any jump party? None tothe BN side. They just becomeindependent just like SAPP became Independent.

Nasa went to Anwar and he was gloating over it. Wonder where was his Lompat Wayang II? None.

He had to rely on Nasa. Nasa did not join PKR as a member andrelnquish his UMNO membership yet. Yet Anwar was happy to gloat.

Padan muka tak sabar2. Tak bodoh ke tu?

It just to show he is a bunch of pelakun keling. He never had any BN MPs seriously considering to jump over.

Dhahran Sea said...

Voice,
Points taken. The only problem now is, the Sultan, by his "wise" decision in exercising his constitutional right, has made possible a "grey" situation which could be exploited by irresponsible parties (in fact it is already happening!). The best way I believe is to return the right to decide back to the people of Perak by dissolving the state assembly and have another state election! That way susah sikit for some people nak buat kacau! Anyway, lets hope some cool heads could resolve this impasse asap. Take care & salam.

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