Wednesday, April 04, 2018

If not 165, is 114-124 safe?

It is bewildering that our former associates in political blogging could consider as psywar strategy to spread message based purely on presumptions.

They presumed all rakyat is angry, life is difficult down there, Najib a thief, country going bankrupt and highly in debt, GST to pay 1MDB debt and the list goes on and on.

Strangely, when they could not defend with facts, figure or even a credible story (despite being former journalist, they may not necessarily be able to), they turn irrational, get angry, curse and swear.

They then continue to churn the same style of fake news again and again. Sadly, former GEICs on the other side are not setting good examples.

Some PPBM MPKT member including former Minister could not even articulate themselves without resorting to bad choices of vocabulory and displaying desperate childish antics.

For MPKT members with hardly LCE certificates and there are few, their way of maintaining their righteousness is the scripted “Wait till election, then you know".

Yeah ... sure. Unless voters are swayed purely on emotion and act without any senses, then they may have a fighting chance.


There are several possible emotionally driven waves that could dent Barisan Nasional's dominance.

There are the new voters, Mahathir triggered anti-Najib sentiment, continuation of past Chinese tsunami, Malay tsunami as forecasted by Lim Kit Siang, and reformasi’s #undirosak movement.

If any wave about to happen, it is usually unexpected like the Chinese tsunami that brought BN down in Penang and Perak in 2008. When anticipated, it will not turn out as convincingly. Parties affected try to reduce the impact.

Thus, the worse thing one would do in this expected to be tight race is to assume things. When you assume, you are making an "ass of u and me".

The country has been on a non-stop political mode for the whole of the new milleneum. Political fatigue may have set-in. People may not bother to come out and vote.

That worried Mahathir as he pleaded for an 85% Malay voters turnout.

After two failed attempts and Lim Guan Eng endless corruption expose and a charge in court, one should not assume Chinese vote to be absolutely solid. Big data at Invoke may not detect a shaken ground.

The common assumption is young voters will reject BN, but all 100%? The #undirosak movement may turn them off to vote.

For those in PH to think they will win, the wake-up call will be Sabah and Sarawak.

Unless BN shoot their own feet with in-fighting for seats, PH will start election in Semenanjung with 50 seats deficit. Warisan could not get their AGM going without a PPBM leader donating RM600,000.


So what is the forecast for the general election?

Not so simple, but will agree with Rocky Bru here that it will not be 165 seats for BN.

According to Cilisos here, there are 7 compelling reasons for BN to win GE14, as below:
1. When Pakatan split up with PAS, it also split its Malay votes
2. The opposition’s “Chinese Tsunami” is receding away from them
3. Pakatan is weak in East Malaysia, where about a quarter of the seats are located
4. 4. Malaysia’s economy and currency are performing well under the gomen
5. Budget 2018 was a big hit with Malaysians
6. The latest change in the redelineation seems to be in BN’s favour
7. 1MDB is waaayyy at the bottom in the list of Malaysian’s concerns
It led Prof Ho Ke Ping to predict a minimum of 160 seats and Prof James Chin predicting 140-160 seats.

Cilisos is fair to discussed the other side of the coin here, There are 7 compelling reasons for PH to win are:
1. The Mahathir effect will cause a Malay tsunami for Pakatan
2. The number of allegations against the gomen are getting hard to ignore
3. BN was already unpopular in 2013 BEFORE this whole 1MDB thing
4. Sabah and Sarawak might finally be waking up
5. Non-Malays are kinda in the bag for Harapan
6. PAS could be a thing of the past
7. Pakatan IS the only real alternative to BN
The forecasted result available in favour of PH is only of Rafizi’s Invoke, which are usually slanted and Rafizi himself lack any ounce of credibility. From memory, they predicted BN to be left with only 89 seats.

So much for Rafizi. For one, Raja Petra here do not find the 7 reasons compelling enough.

Flowery leak

One active PPBM organiser gloated to friends (always keep voice down in public) that PPBM could form a new government should they win 35 seats.

However, one member of PPBM MPKT told his close friends that they are more realistic and targeting for 20 seats. So much for leading the new government.

Despite possibility of PPBM being de-registered by ROS soon and major personalities of PPBM is yet comfortable to announce their seats, let’s accept the 20 seats target. Assuming DAP maintain 30-40 seats, PKR win say 25 seats, PAN 10 seats at best, and Warisan with minimum of 3 seats, it totalled 88-98 seats.

For PAS, assume a reduction from 15 seats to 10 seats. Then the balance of 114-124 seats could be BN. Will there be a change in government?

Throw in the +- 5%, maybe and maybe not.

If maybe means deducting 5% from BN, it could be the post-election political moves that is more interesting. Was reminded of what Anwar Ibrahim told a Minister visiting him at the hospital after his surgery.

Whoever is predicting 124 or 136 majority for BN can do so, but in the past, war room optimism have been proven wrong. So be safe than sorry.

1 comment:

Rembau Times said...

Dear AoB
1. BN is losing massive key segments in their voting block.
2. Even before election, PH rallies are drawing record attendees in traditional UMNO strongholds. Even Felda areas are now being breaches.
3. In 2013 the Pakatan rallies were almost all Non Malay but now Malay participation is very strong.
4. The outcome is becoming obvioys that Najib is facinf widespread rejection.

My Say