Sunday, January 27, 2019

Manogaran's majority and snap election after Semenyih?

Manogaran has an 8,476 votes majority over Independent Cikgu Salehuddin Osman and 8,524 majority over smart farming advocate, Wong Seng Yee.

However, 8,800 is not enough to overcome BN Ramli Md Noor's 12,038 votes, who won by an increased majority of 3,328 votes for BN.

The former DAP MP for Telok Intan, who once uttered his opposition to the status of Islam as "official" religion of the Federation, wasted his tireless effort to annul MIC's Sivaragh win at GE14.

DAP and PH ran an aggresive campaign at this BN stronghold seat, which was won by BN by slightly more than 500 votes at GE 14.

A win would have strengthened DAP's position within PH and to pull the strings on an exasperated Tun Dr Mahathir, who both DAP and PPBM find each other overbearing.

DAP did not pull any stop, including abusing the position of their nominated EC Chairman, Azhar Harun.


EC announced earlier closing time for polling station with Malay and Orang Asli majority voting district to cite security reasons. They were no early closing time for GE 14 at CH and no communist ambush on the ballot boxes reported.

Azhar closed one eye to the long list of infringement of election rules by PH. He said there was nothing wrong with DAP campaign workers openly giving money to Orang Asli voters under guise of petrol money.

The misuse of government facilities was blatant, especially by Ministers and Orang Asli Department.

Their vehicles could be seen everywhere. JHEOA personnels in PH T-shirts were directly involved to "kidnap" Tok Batins for brainwashing and putting up PH project signboards at the Orang Asli settlements the night before polling.

In the early part of the campaign, a PKR Senator and Lim Guan Eng threatened to the Orang Asli. Lim Kit Siang and DAP lost it with the Orang Asli.

On the last day of campaign, DAP and PH was up to dirty tricks such as falsely accusing Ramli for involvement in Memali. They hope to dissuade PAS supporters from voting BN but to no avail.

Nik Abduh's let bygone be bygone was received well. PAS voters willingly shifted sizeable votes from their 3,500 votes at GE14.

There was also infringement on polling day too.

One can argue BN used to do the same but had been taught a bitter lesson. Now, PH is not putting action into the BERSIH words spoken loudly.

EC Chairman has since taken the defensive stance to say he is glad of the greater awareness on election rule in this by-election. Too soon to say before the Semenyih by-election as it will be bitterly fought to stop BN turning around in political fortune.

The CH results showed dirty trick may not pay off.   

Blaming on the past does not work anymore.

Blame game and fear factor of BN, Najib and 1MDB by Lim Kit Siang, Lim Guan Eng, Tony Pua, Anwar and Mahathir hardly affected Malay and Orang Asli votes significantly.

Mahathir went to the point of calling Najib a bully like a Jew. It was him who let the Israel cricket team in to play in an international competition in KL.

They could try the excuses and blame game again in Semenyih and Rantau to a public angered by drastic budget cut, senseless reallocation, rising prices, and dampened economy. 

And continue to cook up more charges with incomplete investigation and without papers.

Chinese votes

While Chinese votes still contributed 82% of to the lesser votes of Manogaran, the statistics did not show the comparison to GE14 statistics and the number of no show.

Lim Kit Siang expressed early concern as he pleaded for outside voters to return. It is believed Chinese gave illegal bookie 1,000 votes to pick for a BN win.

There were indications from Channel 3, 4 and 5 of young Chinese voters protest.

A former DAP candidate told this blogger this morning that the loss is attributed to the public disenchantment with the economic mess arising from Lim Guan Eng and Tony Pua's amateurish fiscal management.

Manogaran not only made a hattrick loss but his votes reduced from 9,710 votes for GE14 to 8,800 votes.

It answers pro-PH analysis citing the excuse of lower turnout. It is PH side that suffered the lower number.

Manogaran can kiss Cameron Highland and even his political career good bye.

Pemuda UMNO Chief, Dr Asyraf Wajdi saw similar reason and gave tribute to the strong cooperation with PAS and within BN for the victory. 

Hadi saw it as indication of people rejecting PH for not fulfilling their promises.

Bigger turmoil ahead? 

It is still premature to assume the CH win is a turnaround for BN without proper survey and study, but an emerging trust deficit against PH is likely.

It could be the start of a politically challenging phase or even a bigger turmoil ahead for fragile PH.

More so, the friction between them is unabated with Mahathir's situation described by sources within PPBM as exasperated. Witnesses observed his voice was quivering at Sungai Koyan.

One analysis in Malay from a WA group summarised the political implication of the result as below:

Kekalahan PH di PRK CH mencapai bbrapa MATLAMAT dan memungkinkan beberapa KEMUNGKINAN:

1. BN dpt akhiri losing streak

2. Orang Asli pertama menjadi MP

3. Cina dpt luahkan protes terhadap LGE dan DAP berhubung kelembapan ekonomi dan impak kesilapan hubungan dgn Spura kepada pekebun sayur di tambah dgn penyelesaian isu tanah TOL oleh MB.

4. PPBM dpt kekang tambahan kekuatan DAP. (Kemungkinan sbb Tun overkill di Sg Koyan dan hamper mlm tadi secara terbuka)

5. PKR aka Anwar dpt kenakan tekanan terhadap Tun utk lpskan jawatan (Anwar sengaja over terhadap Najib). PKR mungkin sabotaj PPBM di Semenyih utk naikkan Anwar.

Tapi orang Azmin yg kuat di Semenyih, maka blh berlaku pertembungan sesama PKR. 

6. Petanda politik kaum India mungkin terkesan akibat silap mainan politik, tindak tanduk Waytha (diam saja utk PRK) dan Seafield.

7. DAP aka Cina mungkin membalas utk sabotaj PPBM di PRK Semenyih jika mereka yakin telah disabotaj di CH.
8. Persefahaman dan kerjasama dgn PAS meningkat dan boleh membuahkan hasil
Celebrate, rihat dan bersedia utk Semenyih dan Rantau!
Snap election?

The PPBM grassroot still believed the plan to get UMNO MPs to jump ship is still in play. Actually, it has stopped and both Mahathir and Anwar are at a standstill.

That is not what Mahathir, who is used to being few steps ahead, is comfortable with. Mahathir could not move further in Sabah without annoying Warisan, but is hoping to get Sarawak's GBS support.

He need deep pocket but the pocket is in Guan Eng's pant.

In the meanwhile. government is rudderless with Mahathir more concerned to deny Anwar the PM-ship and gaining control than governing.

He said at Sungai Koyan that he intend to stay till his death ("kerja sampai mati"). It is heard that something is to happen after Chinese Year.

If it does not happen, Anwar and DAP will put more pressure on Mahathir. Latest being call for GLC reform by NGOs and exchanges between Terence Gomez and Tun Daim over patronage.

Dato Hamidah Osman called for Parliament to be dissolved and snap election to give direction to government. ISMA made the same call but cite PM's lost control over cabinet as reason.

Rather than give the government totally to Anwar and DAP, Mahathir could resort to dissolve Parliament. Snap election after Semenyih?

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