Monday, May 13, 2019

No political stability insight

DAP is beating their propaganda drum claiming their thumping win in Sandakan means Muslim voters are willing to accept DAP.

MMO's analysis to claimed Malu Apa BossKu is not really factor any more is part of the DAP message.

It is a matter of time the fad will wear off as it loses the spontaneity. Political analyst Dr Abdul Latiff Mohd Ibrahim felt that "developments in Najib’s corruption trial had dented the bossku phenomenon".

Nevertheless, the fact that this Malaya-critical Penampang boy, Phillip Golingai wrote an article to discuss means it will be around for a while. More so, Najib is providing healthy and factual critic of the PH government.

Phillip mentioned the more commonly heard conversation on the ground, in Sandakan at least, was the succession plan to Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

Looking at Tun Dr Mahathir, he is quarreling with practically every other politicians and royalties (the latest is PPBM President and PPBM Johor uprising against the Chairman).

At his already advanced age leads the suspicion his health is deteriorating. It is doubtful that Mahathir can persevere any longer.

Talk is Mahathir sudah tak larat (could not physically or mentally persevere any more), and has to pass over the post to Anwar at the latest October.

However, Mahathir recently hinted a possible three year term before passing over the premiership. Apparently, the excuse is the country need more time to be "saved" before passing over to Anwar.

To confirm the plan for extension, the seldom quiet Tun Daim recently shrugged off question on the transition to Anwar.

Azmin not shining

To many political observers, Mahathir will never ever pass the premiership to Anwar.

It is already presumed as sure that Dato Seri Azmin Ali is being positioned as Mahathir's heir apparent. Only a question of timing and situation to make DAP accept him.

However, Azmin has yet to shine as Minister in charge of Economic Affair and of late, he has been laying low. Azmin only recently talked about his Ministry's plan.

Thought he was to take charge of GLCs, but it seemed he could only carryout CEP directive to "jual negara" (asset selling).

Azmin failed to hit the White Paper on Felda out of the ball park. It got lost on the issue of embargo.

The issue raised on Peter Sondakh was easily thwarted by Najib. It shows Azmin inability to understand the fairly safe investment with put option in place.

Tan Sri Shahrir Samad could lay claim that any wrongdoings of Tan Sri Isa Samad in Felda was already being addressed by BN during the last months of its administration.

Any issue raised by PH can be easily turned around with the question why was Mahathir's Political Secretary, Zahid Md Arip exempted from being charged together with Isa?

Azmin mooted the idea of Felda leasing  settlers' lands for it to be managed by Felda and settlers hired as workers. It emulated the Ijok land scam and will not go down well. It is already showing from the response to Azmin's visits.

It is believed that Mahathir's personal aspiration is for Dato Mukhriz to eventually be PM.

However, he has long acknowledged Mukhriz is a weak leader and couldn't care less. Rumours has it that the father is annoyed he still insisted on commuting regularly or daily to and from Kuala Lumpur.

Contrary to common belief, rationally one can rule him out.

Apparently, Mahathir wanted Datin Seri Dr Wan Azizah to vacate the Deputy Prime Minister position for her to be replaced by Azmin. But she is holding on for dear husband life.

Mahathir can do a cabinet reshuffe and he is under pressure to reshuffe his borderline passing mark cabinet with majority Ministers failing.

But, he will need the concurrence of the PH Presidential Council. The major change he need to do is remove Lim Guan Eng from Ministry of Finance, but he can't do that.

And there are also other changes that need done to convince more UMNO MPs to crossover to PPBM.

Mat Hasan, a darkhorse?

Outsyed the Box, a Mahathir fanatic now turned critic of PH, wrote a piece to hint Anwar will not get to be PM (read on MMKTT).

The blogger cum Masjid India jeweller and businessman works closely with Dato Kadir Jasin and the Daim team. And, he gave a possible scenario, which could be either a plan they are hatching or diversion from their true insidious intention, in his concluding remark:
Talk is there is a serious rift between Dr Mahathir and Muhyiddin Yasin. Talk is Muhyiddin, brader Anwar and Shafie Apdal are teaming up.

Other rumours say that recently the DAP MPs had a private meeting with Dr M where they voiced out serious disagreements. Even a shouting match, some folks say (some folks here means ex Cabinet Minisyer lah).

Hishamuddin Onn wanted to join Bersatu but he has been told to hold on. He has been tasked to stay back in UMNO and look after things (meaning UMNOs billions in assets, the three million members etc). Why?

The "dark horse" in UMNO - and a possible "next Prime Minister" is Mohamed Hassan presently UMNO president - who recently won the Rantau state seat. More importantly Mohamed Hassan totally embarrassed brader Anwar who was PH's Director of Operations running the Rantau By Elections. 
Brader Anwar was given a real thrashing. Even the Indians (for whom brader Anwar sang and danced) voted in droves for Mohamed Hassan. 
Mohd Hassan also has a serious track record in Negeri Sembilan where massive developments have taken place in the State like in Nilai, Seremban, Port Dickson and other places. Negeri Sembilan is a happening place.

As soon as Najib is sent off to jail, and the trials of Zahid Hamidi, Ku Nan etc get traction, the Malays will feel a huge sense of relief that major embarrassments aka kemaluan besar have been removed. 
Then UMNO too can focus on regrouping, reorganising and moving forward again, behind a new leader Mohamed Hassan. This is what not only UMNO members but the Malays in general want to see.

Lets just start again.

In just one year, everyone has lost confidence in Pakatan Harapan. The Indians, almost ALL Malays, Chinese as well and the Ibans / Dayaks / Melanaus in Sarawak plus the Kadazan / Dusuns in Sabah. 
Also OutSyed The Box. 
The disappointment and unhappiness with the PH Federal government is almost total. Last nite I had dinner with some folks including Chinese people. The Chinese are really unhappy.
Only 17% Chinese went out to vote in Sandakan. It was Warisan's money to buy over Projek IC voters that gave DAP the thumping win, claimed a commentator.

One DAP RBA blog summed up the one year anniversary as Bursa the worst performing stock market in the world, ringgit the weakest performing emerging market currency, and bonds expected to drop in September.

It reflects DAP's increasing intolerance with Mahathir.

Succession plan not working out

As far as the Mat Hasan hypothesis, it is interesting but rather far fetch for the time being.

One political commentator told yours truly over the phone that the cooperation between UMNO and PAS disturbed Mahathir's plan.

He claimed Mahathir's plan was to get UMNO MPs to crossover to PPBM. In the meanwhile, Mahathir worked himself to control UMNO via control over its assets before all of PPBM MPs and UMNO crossed over MPs returned back to UMNO.

This is the senario DAP is most afraid off to happen. However, UMNO and PAS cooperation and over the weekend, PAS announced a coalition is making it difficult for Mahathir to have things his way.

It is no secret that he has a deep dislike for PAS and anything traditional Islam. But wonder why Tun Daim met Hadi in Kuala Terengganu after the announced revival of ECRL?

OutSyed The Box hypothesis seemed interesting as Haji Hadi recently thanked Mahathir for helping clean up UMNO and PAS of individuals for next GE15.

With all these manovering of Mahathir with PPBM and UMNO, Malays may just move over to PAS as the main Malay voice with the appeal of its Islamic credential.

It only make Mahathir's political plan deviate further.

Untenable to stay

Maybe Mahathir may want to soldier on and stay till three years, but it will be increasingly untenable.

PPBM is on the verge of another major upheaval. More so, the one member one vote system to be implemented for their upcoming party election will make Sabah determine their direction.

Former UMNO Sabah entry into PPBM only worsen relationship with Warisan. 

Mahathir is already unhappy with the uncooperative and fumbling Lim Guan Eng. He has the power but not the competency, yet arrogant and stubborn. It was Mahathir's decision to appoint him.

His long and most trusted Lieutenent in Daim brought out his quarrel with Guan Eng and Tony Pua in the open, to answer Rocky Bru. Guan Eng has the power but the ailing old man has to do the job.

The duo too is increasingly unpopular in DAP. There is a groundswell against the Guan Eng in the making that recent DAP Convention had to be kept under the lid.

There is also Amanah, which is split between their indebtedness to DAP for funding them in the party's early days and opportunity Mahathir is offering to Mat Sabu together with hurtful words DAP uttered against PAN leading to GE14.

Their party election is due and heard Mat Sabu will be challenged.

On those NGOs, Mahathir can pretend to concede to the left wing liberals as though IPCMC will be implemented. The planned IPCMC is expected to be watered down and has no teeth. It will merely be a celebrated complaint bureau.

However, rebranding trick and in the case of IPCMC, misleading branding trick cannot last. Its the economy and succession plan that will pressure Mahathir.

Bloomberg analysis of PH's anniversary was focussed on the succession plan Mahathir wish to evade. They are forcing the issue.

It is rather ironic but the Daniel Moss analysis sub-headlined his article accurately with the byline "The durability of the coalition he built depends on his smooth exit".

Mahathir need to make his move after Hari Raya to take control of the situation or others will determine his political fate.

Political instability to persist

In the meanwhile, Malaysia looks to succumb to this unofficial international isolation and unless something drastic is done, it will continue its dive into the abyss

If Mahathir is unable to churn revenue for the country and still refuse to pass over the premiership to Anwar and complete control to DAP, then Mahathir has to swallow his pride and start talking to those he despised, including Najib and Zahid.

There have been initial efforts that could lead to such hints of reconciliation though it is not too hopeful.

Failing which, Mahathir's only choice is to dissolve Parliament and que sera sera.

Mat Hasan predicted GE15 to happen next year. He said openly in Sandakan that Mahathir will not give the PM-ship to Anwar. PAS Sec-Gen, Dato Takiyuddin said Anwar is a convict thus will not be PM.

However, leaving things to chance is something that is unlikely for Mahathir to do. The political instability will only continue to linger over a longer period. Malaysia and the people continue to suffer.

Malaysia's greatest selling point to attract FDI in the past had been its political stability. Without political stability, the economy could not attempt a turnaround.

The country's international trade is dependent on political stability and consistent foreign and trade policies. As one of the top 20 trading nation in the world, one cannot underscore political stability as a factor.

Political instability affects both consumer and business confidence. More so, Malaysia does not currently command confidence from international investors.

Most foreign investors, be it portfolio or FDI, are selling out. Despite the positive ECRL announcement and China to buy the overhang of Malaysian oil palm, the commodity market turned bear from short selling abroad.

Daim's interview with SCMP and his negative comment on ECRL does not help revive confidence too. Perhaps, he is preempting failure to deliver by November.

Numbered days? 

Public confidence and support with the current government is at a low ebb.

The left wing liberal and long time opposition supporters that support PR in the past are losing patience with Mahathir for dragging his feet on reform.

Malays will revolt from being called bodoh and blamed for their economic handicap.

Internet made them realised that it was because of past Mahathir's less-than-sincere efforts, widespread corruption, unfair practices of cronyism and nepotism, wastage and colossul loses, and cakap tak serupa bikin (not done as spoken) policies in helping Malays.

The most optimistic comment on the economy on PH's anniversary is only mix. Mahathir tried to instill optimism with new promises of another economic plan and lofty dream.

However, it is unlikely to sink-in with the masses that suffered through PH's first year such as the rubbertappers toiling it daily in their late age.

One University lecturer listed 365 failures of PH government. The message is failed policies is a daily affair under PH. No need for any party to undermine the government as they can do a better job on themselves.

Situation is grave enough that Malaysia is being viewed by experts as at a higher risk of defaulting on its debt obligation, which sharply rose in PH's first year.

Yet Mahathir can still be playing politics with the tiresome blame on previous government line. It is as if that is the only excuse he could conjure up for the current economic predicament.

Mahathir's reply to the civil forfeiture move against Najib and Rosmah was with the playful question how did they got such money. The immediate response he gets is how did all his sons became billionaire?

They say Mahathir has the numbers to stay on, but the days are numbered as he flips through his daily schedule. The more he tries to hold back Anwar, the more his resolve to pursue Mahathir and family.

* Updated 14/5 7:30 AM

1 comment:

bumi-non-malay said...

Melayu tulin asli tak letih...melayu Arab IS taliban semua mula letih...sebab Ramadan...itu saja kesimpulan!!..tapi dedak, korrupsi akan diteruskan.....ini amalan melayu Arab yang belainan rentak hidup mereka zaman 2019!!

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