Semburit, the movie: Neither Anwar nor Mahathir, who then is the 3rd party?

Since the last posting on the alleged Azmin Ali-Haziq Aziz sex video, this blogger have been pondering over who could be the hands behind the video release and its distribution, Haziq's brevity to confess, and his brimming confidence as he came out of the police after a night of interrogation.

In her column last week, Joceline Tan believed Haziq "seems to have gone into this high-stakes game with his eyes wide open". He seemed to be a well-trained Matahari, a WW1 spy doing work for the German.

It means he has a handler, the term to describe those given charge to manage these so-called agents or operatives. Joceline described it as hidden hands.

However, it is not an easy task to know and the best one could do is to figure out by analysing the outcome of the actions.

Both this blog and Joceline's initial observation mentioned the possibility it is linked to Lathaefa Koya's appointment as MACC Chief Commissioner and transition of power from Tun Dr Mahathir to Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim, in which Mahathir's preference is to Dato Seri Azmin Ali.

The subsequent events seemed to lead to Anwar as the one to benefit the most from the video expose. One could see Azmin's people and supporters pointing their fingers to Anwar.

This is only expected after one reporter tipped off that Azmin met Mahathir before he flew off for London. He accused the video leak to Anwar and Mahathir asked why was he waiting?

Go pursue Anwar!

Anwar?

Despite being the main beneficiary, the reaction of the first PKR's MPKT meeting was rather stunt. They could be acting and pretending to not know, but it seemed they were genuinely surprised by what happened.

One can sense from the reactions they hated to go down the same road again to dwell and defend Sodomy 3. It is not about politics against Azmin but the stigma of being known forever as Pee Gay Arr.

If Anwar was the hidden hands, he will face the wrath of Mahathir again. He has been careful not to be seen as forceful and rock the delicate PH boat.

RBA could be viralling, but DAP is not an  interested party.

This is certainly a change in view from the earlier posting, but if Mahathir can often change his stance after the excuse of seeing more evidence, there is nothing wrong in being truthful.

Mahathir?

If it is not Anwar, who else could it be but Mahathir.

This game is not for the normal mortal. It is the games of the Gods or the Malay say, Dewa-Dewa. If not Anwar, it would automatically point to Mahathir, not him per se but within his command.

That curiosity was responded by laughter from a senior political analysts. Naturally, why would he do so on his current flavour as heir apparent?

More so, DAP's demand for a transition plan is pushing Mahathir's back towards the wall. In moments like this, it is unthinkable to knock off one's own allies.

Nevertheless, there are possible basis for Mahathir to throw Azmin under the bus.

For the past few months, it has been rather quiet on the political party front. It led to the believe that the planned abandonment of UMNO by its MPs to frog to PPBM has died down.

And, since attainng the PKR Presidency, Anwar made efforts to address the split in the party between the pro-Anwar and anti-Anwar.

Part of the anti-Anwar group support Azmin. Anwar approached all MPs that is possibly aligned to Azmin and supporting Mahathir to turn them over.

Azmin failed Mahathir

Azmin's forte is politics but he failed Mahathir to deliver the number of MPs to support him in the event of vote of no confidence.

Is there anyone other than Zuraidah, Xavier, Sivarasa and possibly one or two more?

During the PKR party election, talk among PKR grassroot was Azmin turned down Mahathir's request to take on Anwar for the Presidency. It could be his ploy to get Azmin to leave PKR and join PPBM.

As Minister, Azmin is not a performer. Apparently, he failed to prepare an assigned plan to turnaround the economy. Both Azmin and Lim Guan Eng were unable to deliver Mahathir's request and had to be reminded of the assignment.

The plan ended up falling into old Tun Daim lap and it pissed the man.

The common argument is Mahathir will not do that on Azmin is his defense of the video and none other to pick as successor.

Makeway for Mukhriz? 

However, there is a popular belief that Azmin was dumped by Mahathir to make way for PPBM's Dato Mukhriz.

It is a popular believe, but this blogger viewed Mukhriz as not competent enough.

If one still believe Mahathir is still on top of his game and steps ahead of everyone, the conspiracy theory by Reggie Jessie believe it was his own doing.

It was his way of making sure Mukhriz is the successor to Azmin and a ploy to make Anwar over excited and over confident to do something stupid.

According to the theory, Mahathir had bought and paid over 65 of PKR, Amanah, DAP, Sabah/Sarawak and UMNO MPs. Anwar could be hawking money. And the figure talked about is in the tune of US$5 million and RM25 million.

When Mahathir return from the Bangkok Asean meeting tomorrow. It has to be sorted out before the next Parliamentary seating on July 1st.

According to a source linked to a PKR state leader source, the targeted date planned for Anwar to assume the premiership is before August.

Taib Mahmud?

In the earlier posting, it was speculated that Latheefa would pursue to investigate Pehin Seri Taib Mahmud. This is one of the Gods of politics able to silently do such a manouvre.

By hitting at Azmin, it could be Taib Mahmud's subtle message to Latheefa. Known to be feisty, she may choose to ignore a norm and unstated agreement that Taib is not to be touched.

It does not matter that Sarawak Report's Clare Rewcastle is now friendly with Mahathir and Sarawak state election is coming up, Taib is in the same league as Mahathir and one must be doubly sure before doing anything to him. Legend is touching him could lead to the break up of Malaysia.

The alleged corruption against him may have ulterior motive of national interest beyond the knowledge of others.

As a Santubong boy, in which the constituency is a PBB stronghold and Dato Wan Junaidi used to win by more than 20,000 majority, Haziq Aziz could be a Matahari planted into PKR to fix Azmin.

This fit in with the cover-up claim by certain PKR faction that he has been in and out of PKR.

Haziq anticipated and replied to every move by Azmin, but as pointed out by Hishamuddin Rais, the confession does not jive.

He was frolicking with Azmin in May and suddenly call for MACC investigation in June. Too sloppy to be the work of any branch of government intel or special assignment units.

If Taib had OKed the plan, it would have been timely as fingers will point to Anwar and it had long been anticipated something would happen after Raya.

However, it will not stop Latheefa and in fact, it could make her more determined.

This ruled out this one of the Gods.

Daim?

So it is not Anwar, not Mahathir, and not Taib, could it be Daim then?

Daim have been quiet and minding his business to focus on the economy, whacking at Guan Eng, and getting sabotaged by him. It would seemed he has distanced himself from politics.

Remember that in April, Daim requested 6 months more to deliver on the promise. By right, he has no time to play political games.

That is unless the 6 months is to solve the political impasse of the PH government that hindered the economic restructuring and formulation of economic recovery policies.

There seemed to be a lack of priority in the PH government with each Minister pursuing their own agenda and not in concert with the rest of cabinet members.

Azmin is one of the slackening Minister. If this blog could spot Azmin's incompetence, Daim could spot it before he first open his mouth.

Azmin had been more a hangers in PKR than actually able to make hard decision and put together and implement plans.

In Selangor, he became MB with the support of PAS and claim achievement from the efforts of Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim. His rise in PKR is due to his willingness to accede to Anwar's wishes and needs, to say the least.

While there could be motivation for Daim to throw Azmin under the bus, it would not make sense for him to do so just to replace Azmin and infuriate Mahathir.

What is the motivation then?

Muhyiddin?

Since it is difficult to figure out exactly what the Gods are doing, it could have been the work of the lesser gods.

Tan Sri Muhyiddin have the motives to do the number on Azmin.

PPBM is not supportive of Azmin but remained silent as he is the boss preference. It is only Muhyiddin and Zambery Kadir man, Dato Rais Hussin that dare to be critical of Azmin.

While Muhyiddin maintained a steady exterior and kept his narrative as consistent with principles, the now known manouvering of Muhyiddin against Najib and in the past, Pak Lah means he is capable of throwing stones and hiding his hands.

For the month before Ramadhan, he was said to be returning late at night ever so often that the neighbours noticed. Their concern was his health condition.

Muhyiddin was not accompanied by outriders, thus it could be more social visits or meeting up with his factions. However, to think he is conspiring something, it is over stating his political influence in PPBM.

Tense relation

After the open quarrel with Mahathir in the emergency PPBM meeting, he made no traction, except perhaps support among PPBM Johor.

That quarrel open himself vulnerable to Mahathir, who is expected to see him as a threat or as the Malay saying, gunting dalam lipatan or scissor within the folded clothes.

It would not be a surprise Mahathir will reshuffle cabinet and replace him at Home Affairs with Mukhriz. The likes of Deputy Minister of Finance, Dato Amiruddin Hamzah could replace Mukhriz as Kedah MB.

It is laughable but Mahathir could go to the extent of challenging him for PPBM Presidency. None could do so.

Alone and getting even? 

Muhyiddin may have given up on PPBM and do a scorch earth strategy. He could have done on UMNO, but Mahathir had other plans.

Apparently ROS officially wrote to direct PPBM to hold their AGM before mid-July or run risk of being closed up. The party was established in 2016 and it has yet do a proper AGM.

Muhyiddin will be blamed on many accounts.

If Muhyiddin had a hand in Azmin's affair, he could be using some outfit with no attachment to Mahathir or his appointed man in Home Ministry. It explains for the sloppy execution, but did he?

By doing so, it helps Anwar without him knowing. Then Muhyiddin could "crossover" to PKR and retire in peace. Not only Muhyiddin is frustrated with Mahathir, Shafie Apdal too.

At the current juncture of his life, will Muhyiddin make such move knowing more could be exposed of the skeletons in his closet and immediate retaliation is the Nika Gee affair?

Dissolve or not to dissolve?

According to Raja Petra's posting, Anwar has 140 and Mahathir has 40. If Mahathir does nothing, Anwar could be Prime Minister before Christmas or earlier.

Omigod ... massive amount of funds is expected to leave the country as no investors have any inkling of confidence with Anwar's ability in economic management.

The only caution is it is not as simple as what was said.

Logically speaking, Mahathir could not single-handedly reshuffle cabinet without consulting with his fellow PH members of the Presidential Council.

He cannot afford to risk PPBM hold on power to change MB of Kedah.

And, he must be willing to do something drastic like calling a snap election.

But would he do so when it is not to his advantage as UMNO-PAS could regain power?

He could get 8 to 10 UMNO MPs to crossover as show of force but it is to UMNO advantage as it is the impetus to reinvigorate the party with new blood.

Mahathir could likely maintain status quo because PKR and DAP is not willing to risk losing power but could do nothing.

Already, PKR is in topsy turvy and in two years time, Azmin will challenge Anwar and the end is in sight for PKR. Then Mahathir will deal with DAP.

But then there is a potential twist. Papagomo revealed to ask whats wrong with supporting Mohamed Hasan working together with Mahathir for sake ummah unity.

Apparently, a major UMNO leader left his state UMNO WA group at 3 AM. Jeng jeng jeng ....

Political pundirs are expecting Mahathir to make drastic actions within the next 10 days upon his return, including the speculation of massive buying of MPs.

However, it should not be just for the non-supporter MPs. The supporting MPs may want to be paid too, isn't it?

Its not so simple.

* Edited 21/6 6.30 AM