Thursday, April 09, 2009

Malay vote shift at Bukit Gantang


If not deviated by other viewpoints, my first hunch from any observation is usually right.

The same thing happened last Thursday night at the dinner at Simpang, Taiping organised by a local Chinese community. My hunch then was the 5,000 attending audience was giving muted response to the campaigners. The excuse given by everyone for the damper was the three hour rain preceding the event that turned the padang into a padi field.

By the time we met the community leaders at a riverside seafood restaurant in Kuala Sepetang on Friday, I was convinced into believing of a turnaround in the Chinese community. In rural Chinese communities, such community leaders are opinion leaders.

The outcome of the Chinese voters is to the contracy and remain in the same 2008 pattern. While, the Malay majority votes showed a shift back to BN.

The Chinese votes for PAS increased from 70% in 2008 to 85% in 2009. The cynical view could perhaps be that seeing power is within grasp, the Chinese are not relenting. Political power may have overriden their usual concern for economic stability.

Another possibility is that the on slaught on Nizar, Nger and Nga may have backfired. Nizar has build up quite a respect with the Chinese community and benefited from sympathy votes.

The extent the idea for the dissolution of State Assembly and state general election is received is not certain. The constitutional issue was not allowed use for campaign with the case still pending in courts.

Nevertheless, sentiment amongst the Malays may have shifted away from PAS. BN's votes from Malay voters increased from 14,500 for 2008 to 17,000 and PAS's Malay votes correspondingly deccrease from 11,500 to 10,000.

According to PAS's Director of Operation, Asmuni Awi, the figures reflect a simlar trend but the quantum differ significantly. Their claim is Chinese votes rose from 65% to 75%.

To spin the reduced Malay votes, PAS claimed it is higher than expected. Malay votes was at 43% and their expectation was 40%. An UMNO blog claim Malay votes for PAS stands at only 37%.

Overall, Nizar received 21,860 votes against 19,071 votes for Ismail Saffian for a majority of 1,789 votes. Compared to Anwar Ibrahim's 7,000 majority prediction and 'bookies' prediction for 4,500 majority, this is significantly less.

The 1,500 shift in Malay votes was not sufficient to compensate the Chinese voters rise. Nevertheless, it is a silver lining for BN, in particular UMNO for it is indicative that Perak majority's shift in opinion on the derhaka gesture of Nizar.

For Malay-based PAS, this is a positive development in their quest to gain acceptance from the non-Malay voters. However, the extent in the shift of their Malay base is uncertain. Are they benefitting from a negative sentiment against UMNO than a truly positive acceptance of PAS?

If it is a true acceptance, it came with a high price. For one, they maybe deemed as dependent on DAP support and their agenda influencedby DAP. On Allah issue, Nik Aziz has taken a strangely compromising position. Nizar, in answering to questions in the State Assembly on Negara Islam, dispell Negara Islam as PAS's agenda.

Are the traditionalist in PAS comfortable with new liberal ideas pervading into PAS? Is this a permanent change or merely for political expediency? Will PAS be comfortable to foresake their traditional Malay base and compromise further their party's Islamic agenda?

PAS will have its party election in the middle of this year. It is expected that the Anwar-sympathiser Erdogan faction, associated with these liberal and more accomodative liberal ideas, will make an attempt to wrestle power from the ulamak faction.

And, it is around the same time the trials of Anwar Ibrahim sodomy charges will begin.

9 comments:

Hamba said...

Still at it, huh? Still spinning as if spinning will change the result...Well, keep on spinning and deny everything. It will be so much better for Pakatan. But then asking UMNO and BN to really dissect and identify their fault is asking too much, right?

Anonymous said...

Malay vote shift?its the fear of the return of Mahazalim and his son Mahatakguna.

BC said...

Could the return of Malay votes to UMNO be due to the presence of Tun Mahathir? And the negative spin like 999-year lease and other underhanded play on Malay sentiments like Nga on Quran etc. have been attributable to the return of the pendulum swing? (Which may turn back again)

Isn't it a positive sign to have non-Malays supporting PAS now, since they have been supporting UMNO all these years and only to be so ignored and even mistreated? Could it be that they non-Malays know enough about UMNO's sincerity or lack of it? Does not UMNO want to listen to what they wanted to say? That it was time UMNO did things fairly by them?

Bro, let's embrace the political maturity that is falling into place in our society. Partisanship is so outdated.

Parpu Kari said...

SALAM BRO, NAK KOMEN SIKIT YA...BUT IT IS INI MALAY, I HOPE THE TURMERIC LICKERS WILL UNDERSTAND IT!

SEMALAM DAP TELAH MENANG DENGAN GAYANYA DI BUKIT GANTANG! TAHNIAH NIZAR NAMRUD! ANDA TELAH BERJAYA MEMBUAT SESUATU YANG AMAT LUAR BIASA! DASYAT TU....KEBANGKITAN KOMUNIS DI BUKIT GANTANG!


SAYA NAK BAGI SEDIKIT ANALISIS DI BUKIT GANTANG LA YEA!


ISMAIL SAFFIAN MENDAPAT UNDIAN MELAYU YANG TINGGI TETAPI KURANG DARI CINA DAN INDIA, JADI DISEBABKAN ITULAH SAUDARA ISMAIL TEWAS DI BUKIT GANTANG, MARILAH KITA TENGOK APA YANG MENYEBABKAN TERJADINYA PERKARA SEBEGINI!


BN MEMANG BOLEH MENDAPAT UNDIAN DARI KAUM BUKAN MELAYU SEKIRANYA MB BERSETUJU DENGAN PERMINTAAN MEREKA, DALAM TEMPOH BERKEMPEN10 HARI HANYA DUA SAHAJA PERMINTAAN MEREKA IAITU:-


1. KELULUSAN TANAH 999 TAHUN!


2. SPEAKER DEWAN HARUS DI BERI KEPADA ORANG INDIA!


SEKIRANYA DATO DR ZAMBRY SETUJU SAHAJA DENGAN SYARAT YANG TELAH DISEBUTKAN DI ATAS TADI MAKA SEMALAM SUDAH TENTU KEPUTUSANNYA LAIN! TETAPI MB PERAK YANG KITA HORMATI INI TELAH PUN MENOLAK PERMINTAAN TERSEBUT DENGAN CARA BAIK.


HARAPAN MB PERAK IALAH SUPAYA ORANG MELAYU SEDAR DAN BERSATU, KUKUHKAN UMNO KEMBALI! HATS OFF TO YOU DR ZAMBRY!


BETAPA BESARNYA PENGORBANAN DATO DR ZAMBRY, DIA SANGGUP MENGHADAPI KEKALAHAN DARI HAK MELAYU DI GADAI, NIZAR NAMRUD BELAJAR LA DARI MB PERAK YANG KITA SAYANGI TU....KAU TU KOMUNIS NIZAR NAMRUD OI!


SEMALAM BUKAN PAS YANG MENANG TETAPI DAP! LEPAS NI SAH LA PAS AKAN BERTUKAR MENJADI PARTI WEREWOLF MALAYSIA....


SEPANJANG PERJALANAN BALIK DARI BUKIT GANTANG SEMALAM AKU MELIHAT DI HIGHWAY TERDAPAT BANYAK WEREWOLF, VAMPIRE DAN PELBAGAI MAKHLUK2 ASING YANG DOK KIBARKAN BENDERA BULAN PENUH!


KALAU TENGOK DARI GAYA PENYOKONG PARTI TU LA, ALAMATNYA TAK LAMA LAGI AKAN BERKUBUR LA MEREKA, INGAT RAKYAT MELIHAT! KEPUTUSAN SEMALAM TIDAK MENGUBAH APA APA LAGI YA FUCKATAN RIOT! MASIH STATUS QUO LAGI!


ADA PULAK PIHAK YANG MENGATAKAN KEHADIRAN BAPAK AKU MEMBUATKAN BN KALAH...MUAHAHAHHAAHA...INILAH ALASAN PALING BODOH PERNAH AKU DENGAR SANG FUCKATAN RIOT CAKAP KAN NI, DULU KORANG KATA EZAM PUNYA SEBAB BN KALAH, TAK KURANG JUGAK YANG MENGATAKAN KJ PUN PENYEBAB BN KALAH, KORANG NI FUCKATAN RIOT CUKUP KUAT PUSING KAN? KORANG TAKUT MEREKA HADIR DAN MAKIN TERHAKIS LA SOKONGAN KORANG KAN?


DULU BUKAN MAIN LAGI DUBUK-DUBUK KUNYIT AL JUBURI WAL LIWATI NI KONFIDEN YANG PARTI WEREWOLF INI AKAN MENAG DENGAN MAJORITI 7 RIBU LEBIH? APA SUDAH JADI? MAJORITI MENINGKAT SEDIKIT JE KERANA PENGUNDI BUKAN MELAYU NAKKAN TUNTUTAN SEPERTI DI ATAS!


DISEBABKAN KEHADIRAN TUN LAH YANG MEMBUATKAN ORANG-ORANG MELAYU SUDAH SEMAKIN RAMAI YANG MENYOKONG KEMBALI UMNO/BN!


APA SUDAH JADI DENGAN MAC DAN GERAKAN? MANA MEREKA PERGI YA? DEMAND MACAM2 TAPI TAK BEKERJA BERSUNGGUH-SUNGGUH LANGSUNG...

Anonymous said...

The many wrongs in UMNO now we hope can be rectified by DSN. He has already made a number of encouraging statements in that direction. It would take time as money politics, for example, has become systemic.

UMNO has been hijacked by those greedy for power and riches beyond the norms set pre-TDM era. It had been a good and reliable party for the Malays. I believe it would be one again if DSN pursues rectification measures relentlessly. Let's hope and pray he gets a satisfactory measure of success before PRU 13.

The Malay votes will come back if they see reasonable progress in righting the wrongs.

bugis said...

After the lost of the two Bukits, Umno bloggers really sound like sour grapes. Suggest take a break till next election..

Anonymous said...

Shift...???

Its started shifting towards opposition since PRK 9...

A bit and a bit until it is big now, and you all never learned.

And you all never learned...

Just do the self satisfaction post mortem again...just to make you sleep...

And you all never learned...

BrightEyes said...

uuh! Masam betul anggur kat gerai ni! Satu kilo jual berapa?

Mahdey pun kata sebaliknya, undi Melayu berpihak pada PAS. Tunggulah sehingga data & statistik dikumpulkan & dikaji oleh SPR...

Omong said...

diharap UMNO terus memulih dibawah naungan BERANI BERUBAH

semoga rakyat kembali percayakan perjuangan yg masih diperlukan

politik wang yg menjadi barah harus dikikis drp UMNO

doa mengiring Najib dlm usahanya

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